OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[swaledale]

No one in my family have changed their opinion,no one amongst my neighbours, no one in my circle of friend, no one in my wider circle of rock’n’rollin’ acquaintances so maybe all this movement in the polls is wishful thinking

Nope the polls aren't wishful thinking, or there would be glaring differences between them. They might overstate the changes but equally could understate the changes.

But then as I said, the polls at the time of the referendum weren't wrong, just that those supporting Remain didn't turn out in as many numbers as those that voted leave. Add to that the significant percentage who voted purely on the basis of the figures on the bus or some other promise which has never been fulfilled and it would not be a seismic event for them to have a different opinion now.

it is after all fairly simple maths!

[Andy_Faber]

But then as I said, the polls at the time of the referendum weren't wrong, just that those supporting Remain didn't turn out in as many numbers as those that voted leave.!

That’s one of your more amusing statements

[Geoff Parkstone]

It's an interesting notion that the polls were right (pro remain) in 2016 but remainers didn't turn out to vote on the day which made the result wrong. I'd love to see some empirical evidence to support that contention. Sounds like just so many sour grapes to me.

So what you're suggesting is that the current swing in favour of remain (in your opinion,) is due to non voting remainers from the 2016 referendum choosing to "vote" in a 2023 opinion poll, rather than leavers switching camp between 2016 and 2023.

[Andy_Faber]

my circle of friend

Disappointed that my latest (self-mocking) bit of good natured joshing yet again missed the mark

[Ramshank72]

Disappointed that my latest (self-mocking) bit of good natured joshing yet again missed the mark

Your mate Mark will never change!
I wonder how many people didn't turn up and vote leave as they either thought it was a foregone conclusion that we'd remain, or that the government wouldn't see out their vote.

[Andy_Faber]

Your mate Mark will never change!
I wonder how many people didn't turn up and vote leave as they either thought it was a foregone conclusion that we'd remain, or that the government wouldn't see out their vote.

For every swing there’s a roundabout

[ramAnag]

But as ever we digress and miss the point.
We’ll never know which side missed out on the most votes as a result of apathy, disgruntlement or unavailability, and neither does it particularly matter any more.
What matters is...almost seven years on from the Referendum...where this country finds itself and it isn’t in a good place.
That isn’t all down to Brexit of course but much of it sure as hell is and the lies and broken promises from some of the major Brexit ‘players’ should not be forgotten.

[Andy_Faber]

But as ever we digress and miss the point.
We’ll never know which side missed out on the most votes as a result of apathy, disgruntlement or unavailability, and neither does it particularly matter any more.
What matters is...almost seven years on from the Referendum...where this country finds itself and it isn’t in a good place.
That isn’t all down to Brexit of course but much of it sure as hell is and the lies and broken promises from some of the major Brexit ‘players’ should not be forgotten.

Thing is though, we’ve all got the message now, we’ve had nearly seven years of it, so why don’t remoaners try a different and more constructive tack?

[Geoff Parkstone]

But as ever we digress and miss the point.
We’ll never know which side missed out on the most votes as a result of apathy, disgruntlement or unavailability, and neither does it particularly matter any more.
What matters is...almost seven years on from the Referendum...where this country finds itself and it isn’t in a good place.
That isn’t all down to Brexit of course but much of it sure as hell is and the lies and broken promises from some of the major Brexit ‘players’ should not be forgotten.

Sadly this is your normal non analytical answer for everything that doesn't align with your views. You cite a statistic and when it's questioned as to interpretation you accuse others of digressing. It's not digression, it's trying to understand the statistic in context. It's not black and white, it's shades of grey - maybe not 50 but certainly several dozen.

[Trickytreesreds]

It’s interesting when you get a thread that lasts so long and attracts such strong and divided opinion how, contrary to the opinions of some, stances do change.
It began, approaching seven years ago, as a triumphalist Brexit and pro Farage thread.
Over recent months - years even - support has been reduced to just one committed Brexiteer in Tricky with more informed, if less partisan, support from RS and pro democracy rather than overt pro Brexit support from AF and GP.
The resurgence in comments began on Sunday with my introduction of some figures from Statista suggesting a huge decrease in support for Brexit. Tricky and AF immediately attempted to shoot such a suggestion down in flames however they’ve both gone very quiet since their misgivings were challenged.
Since then RS has put forward a far more moderate view than was once the case and GP has referred to the ‘idiotic British man in the street’ in terms that, had Swale or I said such a thing, would have once earned the sternest of rebukes from both GP himself and AF, along with howls of derision from Tricky.
We’ve been regularly told that this debate has changed nothing...seems to me that on both our little localised forum and the infinitely bigger national stage that the times are indeed ‘a changin’.

RA I haven't gone very quiet, but been very busy with personal issues. If you really want an immediate answer, PM me, I'll pick it up.

[Trickytreesreds]

But as ever we digress and miss the point.
We’ll never know which side missed out on the most votes as a result of apathy, disgruntlement or unavailability, and neither does it particularly matter any more.
What matters is...almost seven years on from the Referendum...where this country finds itself and it isn’t in a good place.
That isn’t all down to Brexit of course but much of it sure as hell is and the lies and broken promises from some of the major Brexit ‘players’ should not be forgotten.

Firstly, it isn't 7 years of "leaving" lets get that right.
The broken promises ? Please name them, as the ones in my head, are still stuck in Tory incompetence and an unwillingness to deliver.

[ramAnag]

Firstly, it isn't 7 years of "leaving" lets get that right.
The broken promises ? Please name them, as the ones in my head, are still stuck in Tory incompetence and an unwillingness to deliver.

Neither did I ever say ‘7 years of leaving’. I said ‘almost seven years on from the Referendum’...so yes, let’s ‘get that right’.

Broken promises? How about the words on Boris’ battle bus as probably the most notable...the ‘oven ready deal’...the suggestion that resolving the NI issue would be simple? How’s that just for starters.

GP...of course we digress. We started out looking at Statista’s suggested statistics about how the Brexit view had changed and now you’ve moved to blaming ‘idiots’ who voted for Brexit, Andy talking anecdotally about his family/rock n roll buddies while resurrecting the term ‘remoaners’ and general, no longer relevant, comment on who did and who didn’t vote back in 2016.

P.S. It’s a public forum Tricky...why would I pm you on something that isn’t personal?

[Andy_Faber]

[QUOTE=ramAnag;40263312]Andy talking anecdotally about his family/rock n roll buddies while resurrecting the term ‘remoaners’ and general, no longer relevant, comment on who did and who didn’t vote back in 2016.

/QUOTE]

So in essence I can’t offer any contribution to the discussion, that sounds like cancel culture to me.

[ramAnag]

[QUOTE=Andy_Faber;40263413]

Andy talking anecdotally about his family/rock n roll buddies while resurrecting the term ‘remoaners’ and general, no longer relevant, comment on who did and who didn’t vote back in 2016.

/QUOTE]

So in essence I can’t offer any contribution to the discussion, that sounds like cancel culture to me.

Utter nonsense. How on earth do you reach that conclusion?
I was answering GP’s point that there had been no ‘digression’, when clearly there has.

Beyond that you joined Tricky in questioning the validity of my original statistics (from Statista) and then somehow substituted those figures with the beliefs of your own family, friend(s), neighbours and colleagues.
I’d suggest Statista’s two thousand might just be a little more reliable than your anecdotes and that you’re just disingenuously trying to introduce ‘cancel culture’ into a debate which it is totally irrelevant to.

[swaledale]

It's an interesting notion that the polls were right (pro remain) in 2016 but remainers didn't turn out to vote on the day which made the result wrong. I'd love to see some empirical evidence to support that contention. Sounds like just so many sour grapes to me.

So what you're suggesting is that the current swing in favour of remain (in your opinion,) is due to non voting remainers from the 2016 referendum choosing to "vote" in a 2023 opinion poll, rather than leavers switching camp between 2016 and 2023.

The current swing in favour of remain? I actually said no such thing, as clearly remain isn't an option. Nor is it my opinion -its a statement of fact, based on the evidence through a variety of opinion polls, a general shift of views based on the reality of Brexit.

I don't understand what you mean by non voting remainers choosing to vote in an opinion poll? You surely realise that a random opinion poll is across the board? It covers those who voted as well as those who didn't, seeing as by definition, an opinion poll involves simply answering a question with no further action required, whereas voting involves getting off ones arse and either voting or posting a vote.

All the indications were that Remain would win in 2016, in fact they lost narrowly, there was if you remember a general feeling that the remain side would win, often people who would vote don't in those circumstances feeling there is no need, one of the factors that scuppered a Labour victory in the 1992 election. But also the Leave side was better at simple (if false) campaigning headlines like Turkey is to join the Eu etc. which swayed the undecideds.

Where does sour grapes come in to it????

The shift to a majority of voters now favouring re-joining at least the single market/customs union is down to a number of factors.

1. There was a higher turn out of Leave voters than Remain in the referendum, mainly down to the younger age group who are not known for their participation in elections/referendums and boy have they regretted it since.

2.A significant majority of voters in the over 55 age group voted for Brexit, simple demographics 7 years later means there are fewer of them and that continues of course.

3. A significant number of people who voted leave were not really committed to Brexit, or indeed had a clue what the implications were, they thought the idea of an extra £350 million going to the NHS, or that nothing would change except we wouldn't be "controlled" by Johnny foreigner etc. etc. Those simple if false issues struck home against a muddled Remain message. These have now seen that what was promised not only hasn't and won't happen, but look at the state of the UK now and see Brexit as one of the issues that has caused it.

So no just to clarify matters i am not suggesting that the fact that there is a clear body of opinion that favours re-joining the single market and/or customs union is not down to Remainers not voting in 2016. That was a major reason (though not the only one) for leave winning against the poll prediction in 2016. Given that the actual proportion of the electorate who voted leave in 2016 was 37% - remember it was a binary issue, no other parties to muddy the waters, it doesn't take many to either actually vote or change their view to swing things around does it?