Election Year or Fear!

[SithHappens]

So British politics swings slightly leftward at a time when most of Europe drifts to the right. Makes you glad to no longer be in the EU, doesn't it rA....😄

Has it really swung left though? Percentage wise Labour have only increased a point or two over the last election. The tories losing not by losing votes in large amounts to labour but by losing them to Reform, so to me (admitting not overly scientific reasoning ) , the biggest swing is actually to the right.

[Geoff Parkstone]

You can argue public opinion may be moving rightward, but parliamentary representation moving leftward. Odd bedfellows

[MadAmster]

This result underlines the problem with FPTP. 35% of the vote delivers 64% (rounded up from 63.53%) of the seats in Parliament. It's delivered the LD 8 or 9 seats more than their share of the vote would suggest "correct". On TV this morning, Ed Davey said they were still in favour of PR.

Reform split the "right" votes which delivered the landslide. Just as Labour saw defeat in the constituency where they had deselected the original candidate just over a week ago who now stood as an independent. She and the new official Labour candidate polled enough votes to win but the vote was split.

Going forward, things will be very interesting. Can the Blue Tories change sufficiently to win back votes from Reform and Labour? Will the Red Tories do sufficient in power to keep the votes they have? Will Reform be able to convince more people, across the spectrum, to support them at a future election?

Hopefully, there will be an end to austerity. However, I won't be holding my breath with the National Debt up from £850Bn in 2010 to over £3Trillion today and it's growing at £5170 per second or the average ANNUAL take home pay of the average Brit every 5 seconds or so.

IMO, the place is in such a huge mess that it simply isn't realistic to expect things to be much better come the next election. That won't be a labour fail but it will be seen as such by the electorate and they'll lose.

[Andy_Faber]

I stayed up all night, not quite as gripping as previous events due to the foregone outcome.

Highlights,

Robert Buckland describing Tory infighting as ‘bald men fighting over a comb’

Lee Anderson referring to Ashfield as’The capital of common sense’

Ed Davey in general. Loveable buffoon, his next stunt apparently was wearing a Celtic shirt to aRangers game (and vv)

Our Nige winning his seat, which regrettably rA means you WILL still be contributing to his income.

And of course at even less than the 37% of Brexit, Labour have no mandate so fair minded people should be demanding a re run

[Andy_Faber]

Has it really swung left though? Percentage wise Labour have only increased a point or two over the last election. The tories losing not by losing votes in large amounts to labour but by losing them to Reform, so to me (admitting not overly scientific reasoning ) , the biggest swing is actually to the right.

Well spotted. We were discussing tactical voting a week or so ago (I’m against it) and the Tories have been defeated by the refusal of right leaning people to vote tactically (for the Tories!). We are now an increasingly right wing country with a centre left government. Interesting stuff

[MadAmster]

And of course at even less than the 37% of Brexit, Labour have no mandate so fair minded people should be demanding a re run

... as so many have said over the Brexit result, them's the rules.

Them as didn't vote in the Brexit referendum have no cause for complaint at the result. Them as voted Remain can bemoan all those who didn't vote in the referendum but the result was, and still is, the result. That result may be questioned as to its sanity but them's the rules.

FPTP always used to see lurches from left to right, or vice versa, and each successive government undoing much of what its predecessor did simply because they could. As I wrote in a previous post, 35% of the votes delivered 64% of the seats. That shouldn't give Labour a mandate, but FPTP says it does. Them's the rules.

I think FPTP needs replacing with PR. That way no party would, more than likely, ever get a majority. There would have to be a coalition and that would see the extremes of the various partners' policies ditched. We'd end up, most elections, with a sensible centrist government.

That has kept Holland sensible until the last election which returned a coalition of a far right party, two right parties and a centrist one. The man appointed Prime Minister is not a member of any of the 4. He is a career Civil Servant selected by the 4 once they agreed none of the leaders of the 4 would be PM.

Unfortunately, I think this coalition will implode inside 12 months as 2 of the parties are new. One 3 years old at the election and the other 3 months old. A third, the PPV, is a one member party, Wilders, who has always been on the outside looking in, doing nothing more than criticising the government of the day and never, ever coming up with any solutions. PVV and BBB have no people with experience in government. NSC does have a few with parliamentary experience. VVD was the largest party in the coalitions of the previous 14 years and is very much Conservative, pro business, pro the rich. Some of the points in the coalition agreement aids companies to reduce tax levels, aids the top 10% to reduce taxes whilst the rest can "look forward" to no tax breaks and increases in VAT. Hopefully, the next election, which I expect to be early next year, will provide a sensible mix of a centrist government.

No system is perfect but I think PR is better than FPTP.

[SithHappens]

Odds on Farage and his small band of MP's defecting to the tories in the next 2 years and becomes leader?

[Andy_Faber]

... as so many have said over the Brexit result, them's the rules.

Them as didn't vote in the Brexit referendum have no cause for complaint at the result. Them as voted Remain can bemoan all those who didn't vote in the referendum but the result was, and still is, the result. That result may be questioned as to its sanity but them's the rules.

FPTP always used to see lurches from left to right, or vice versa, and each successive government undoing much of what its predecessor did simply because they could. As I wrote in a previous post, 35% of the votes delivered 64% of the seats. That shouldn't give Labour a mandate, but FPTP says it does. Them's the rules.

I think FPTP needs replacing with PR. That way no party would, more than likely, ever get a majority. There would have to be a coalition and that would see the extremes of the various partners' policies ditched. We'd end up, most elections, with a sensible centrist government.

That has kept Holland sensible until the last election which returned a coalition of a far right party, two right parties and a centrist one. The man appointed Prime Minister is not a member of any of the 4. He is a career Civil Servant selected by the 4 once they agreed none of the leaders of the 4 would be PM.

Unfortunately, I think this coalition will implode inside 12 months as 2 of the parties are new. One 3 years old at the election and the other 3 months old. A third, the PPV, is a one member party, Wilders, who has always been on the outside looking in, doing nothing more than criticising the government of the day and never, ever coming up with any solutions. PVV and BBB have no people with experience in government. NSC does have a few with parliamentary experience. VVD was the largest party in the coalitions of the previous 14 years and is very much Conservative, pro business, pro the rich. Some of the points in the coalition agreement aids companies to reduce tax levels, aids the top 10% to reduce taxes whilst the rest can "look forward" to no tax breaks and increases in VAT. Hopefully, the next election, which I expect to be early next year, will provide a sensible mix of a centrist government.

No system is perfect but I think PR is better than FPTP.

I agree, I was just having a light hearted dig

[Geoff Parkstone]

Odds on Farage and his small band of MP's defecting to the tories in the next 2 years and becomes leader?

Highly likely but I think they will stick around as an alt.party for a while yet and maybe try to pick up a few seats in bye-elections first to carry more weight into a merger. 4 MPs is poor return for their share of vote.

The question is can the Tories afford to accept him?

[Trickytreesreds]

You can argue public opinion may be moving rightward, but parliamentary representation moving leftward. Odd bedfellows

Indeed, but thats our voting model for you.
Labour actually down on 2019 of votes registered, but gets a massive majority?

Reorm trounced everyone from the Libs down, yet gets 4 seats?

Madness, under PR, they'd have 93 seats.

Still, we all know the UK is slightly behind Europe in its rightward swing. But its happening, that in the 173 seats lost by the Tory Party, a whopping 124 saw the Reform vote greater than the margin of the Conservatives' defeat. Second in so many Labour heartland seats as well.

So much for the scoffing in here by my best friend.

What they achieved in 4 years of being formed, and especially the last 4 weeks, since Farage came on board in scary.

Well he said 2028 was always the aim, so we will see,

Big bright note for me. THE SNP decimation. My relatives are doing cart wheels this morning, so thank you Labour for restoring some sanity in Jockistan

[Geoff Parkstone]

It would seem that calls for another referendum on Scotch independence may be a little subdued in the coming months....

But, best yet, Truss lost her seat so the individual that was central to KS victory has actually lost out personally as well as her party.

[MadAmster]

It would seem that calls for another referendum on Scotch independence may be a little subdued in the coming months....

But, best yet, Truss lost her seat so the individual that was central to KS victory has actually lost out personally as well as her party.

Maybe she should stand in Scotland next where she could go on the ballot as Liz Jockstrap in an attempt to appeal more to the electorate...

[Trickytreesreds]

It would seem that calls for another referendum on Scotch independence may be a little subdued in the coming months....

But, best yet, Truss lost her seat so the individual that was central to KS victory has actually lost out personally as well as her party.

I don't think she was GP.

It was said last night by an ex Tory MP, that it went tits up after 2019.
They ignored the mandate set by that election and decided that they knew better, than the voters.
So they sold N.Ireland down the river, let the EU keep a firm grip of testicles and decided to let every man and his dog come here legally and ignore the illegals.
Setting aside all the other screw ups, that alone would have seen this margin of victory down to very little between the two.

So, I'll say again. Same ****, different face, Give it 12 months.
Things won't be much different, the Unions will be pushing Rayner and Starmer will be in full panic mode.

Something different is needed, fast.

[Geoff Parkstone]

I don't think she was GP.

It was said last night by an ex Tory MP, that it went tits up after 2019.
They ignored the mandate set by that election and decided that they knew better, than the voters.
So they sold N.Ireland down the river, let the EU keep a firm grip of testicles and decided to let every man and his dog come here legally and ignore the illegals.
Setting aside all the other screw ups, that alone would have seen this margin of victory down to very little between the two.

So, I'll say again. Same ****, different face, Give it 12 months.
Things won't be much different, the Unions will be pushing Rayner and Starmer will be in full panic mode.

Something different is needed, fast.

That may be so TTR - the seeds of defeat perhaps were down in the weak attitude towards Brexit but her ridiculous thankfully brief) economic policy triggered the "cost of living crisis" to use the cliche and spiked interest and inflation. Not vote winners.

The irony is that Cameron's attempt to unify the tories via a referendum, and subsequent Brexit process, ultimately caused a split because Brexit wasn't done properly in many eyes to the right. And that split seriously damaged Tory chances - effectively they lost the election rather than labour winning it - as the share of popular vote shows.

It's a funny old world. We needed change in government, but I'm not sure we needed such a quantum shift in numbers. It certainly will refocus the PR debate but with Tories calling for it and Libdems nor 😄. More role reversal!

[Trickytreesreds]

That may be so TTR - the seeds of defeat perhaps were down in the weak attitude towards Brexit but her ridiculous thankfully brief) economic policy triggered the "cost of living crisis" to use the cliche and spiked interest and inflation. Not vote winners.

The irony is that Cameron's attempt to unify the tories via a referendum, and subsequent Brexit process, ultimately caused a split because Brexit wasn't done properly in many eyes to the right. And that split seriously damaged Tory chances - effectively they lost the election rather than labour winning it - as the share of popular vote shows.

It's a funny old world. We needed change in government, but I'm not sure we needed such a quantum shift in numbers. It certainly will refocus the PR debate but with Tories calling for it and Libdems nor ��. More role reversal!

Starmer was all for it in 2016, wonder he thinks now?