Election Year or Fear!

[Geoff Parkstone]

PS your guess was wrong, there was a bigger spike in sovereign debt cost in May 2022

[swaledale]

What is ridiculous is that its all supposition, forecasts and predictions which in the round are generally wrong! All in fact she has to do is modify her fiscal rules, tying herself to that was bloody stupid anyway.

As for economists, the OBR ad the flipping bank of England, one only has to look back in history to realise that most of what they forecast and predict doesn't actually happen.

[Geoff Parkstone]

this is partly true, Swale in that everything is speculative but the facts remain that the budget will need to be reconsidered and one of two planks - tax or borrowing will need rethinking to cover the 5 billion U Turn on welfare cuts. That bit is real - the speculation is how that rebalancing is achieved which is what causes unease and volatility in the capital and exchange rate markets - more so the former. Yes the markets usually settle back down - it eventually did post Truss, albeit with a resultant hike in interest rates (which was going to happen anyway) that has yet to fully go away. Trump's tarriff impact was even more ephemeral and markets have already bounced back to higher levels than pre tarrif imposition.

[swaledale]

I agree! You echo a point I made a while back, I can't figure out why this piss poor management keeps occurring. Is it lack of experience of government, arrogance, incompetence by those in the party machinery, Starmer's technocratic tendencies etc. or a combination of all of these?

Its a shame because there is much good stuff that this government has done, but that's been poorly communicated and presentation is very poor. The arrogance and attempted strong arming of backbench MP's has backfired, they are finding their feet and have given a strong message that their views do matter whatever those in the ivory towers may think. Whatever the reason they need to get a handle on things very quickly.

I agree with you re Reeves, though my sympathy is a little tempered by my encounters with her when I worked in Leeds where she was/is the local MP and found her to be a bit of slippery and arrogant character. But then maybe one needs a bit of that to be a politician these days.

[Geoff Parkstone]

More than a bit I think!

I have one nagging thought that this whole thing is a conspiracy. Reeves was boxed into a hard place by pre election promises (Tory unknown black hole or not, but I'd say should have been known). So to make things balance and appease the markets, press etc she creates on balance a sensible budget knowing full well it would be rejected by the core "spend spend spend" elements of the party.

The markets respond well, there is no panic but of course the heirarchy know what is coming. And it's now come. But they have split the impact - the bad news on ERNI was offset by the proposed spending cuts on welfare. But they never intended to cut anything - and now they can blame the party for the shambles instead of taking front bench responsibility for busting tax or borrowing election pledges.

Slippery *******s indeed.

[SithHappens]

I'm not really a reeves fan but it's not nice to see. I thought Badenoch behaved poorly, demanding to know what the "personal issues" were. How about non of your business.

[Trickytreesreds]

Cry on the telly, we saw you cry on the telly. Cry on the tellllllllllllllllllllllllly, we saw you cry on the telly

Not heard that since............................................ I'm sure it will come to me,

[Trickytreesreds]

I'm not really a reeves fan but it's not nice to see. I thought Badenoch behaved poorly, demanding to know what the "personal issues" were. How about non of your business.

Oh dear Sith, Labour calamity troubling you again? Watch her leader hang her now. He's just lost another round and saved bugger all, meaning tax rises AGAIN! But he'll do what he can to save his own skin

It swings in roundabouts mucker. I saw Gardiner crying about the media making a meal out of it.

Well, they all thought it was hilarious, when they were mocking Johnson and calling Truss a lettuce.

If she isn't up to the job and that big a cry-baby, she should quit. Maybe not lying on her CV bigging herself up, could have kept her out of trouble.

[Andy_Faber]

I'm not really a reeves fan but it's not nice to see. I thought Badenoch behaved poorly, demanding to know what the "personal issues" were. How about non of your business.

Poor show from badenoch who saw an enemy to exploited not a human being

[ramAnag]

Why do you ask for thoughts from "the economists" - is it just to argue with or ridicule?

One more observation before I close the book on teaching the unteachable teacher: the gilts sell off which spiked sovereign borrowing costs in this way is a sign that the market liked Reeves' policy and reflects badly on the U Turn forced on the government. The expectation is that either (a) taxes will rise to offset the 5 billion new hole in the original Reeves budget or (b) state borrowing will rise to fill the hole. Neither options are well received in capital markets, nor I suspect in the labour heirarchy who need a fall guy.

Over and out

Sorry, GP. Have been unable to respond because I have been driving about 500 miles to within striking difference of the tunnel today.

Thinking about things, neither you nor I have exactly covered ourselves in glory in recent days.
Tbh I don’t understand half the terminology you use, it’s often the way with ‘experts’. They have an almost secret language which is sometimes used to confuse and complicate. I’ve done it myself though obviously in a different area.

Neither do I ask for the thoughts of economists just to argue or ridicule and I apologise if it comes across that way.
My statement about the state of exchange rates after the Truss budget compared with now is a simple - possibly over simplified - fact and in answer to AF’s comment, I suspect the GBP/Euro rate has not got close to where it was before the Referendum since completion of the Brexit process.

All I was originally seeking was your opinion on how we can close the ever widening gap between rich and poor, change a situation where a tiny proportion of the population owns a huge percentage of the national/worlds wealth and where the rich are disproportionately well rewarded for the achievements of companies they own.
I perhaps over simplify economic issues because of my lack of technical understanding but it seems your higher level - where economics is concerned - has not really helped either as you have few, if any, answers and appear to be favouring a status quo which I suspect cannot be allowed to continue.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Can I just say one thing. We were discussing the impact of one Labour UTurn on capital markets and forex markets. Its is therefore utterly irrelevant what eg the forex rate was post Truss or pre Brexit. The question is how the markets reacted to the UTurn on the day - not where they ended up on the day compared to 3 or 9 years ago. Similarly how the capital markets spiked on the day, what rates were 3 or 9 years ago are irrelevant.

This is because we are trying to isolare the impact of one decision - Truss' budget disaster or reeves budget UTurn.

Let me try to put it in football terms. Derby sign a new striker for the start of next season who scores 10 goals in the first 10 games leaving us 5th in the EFL. How do you assess his impact on the team - do you look back on how well we were doing in 2022 or 2016? No you look at improvement (in this case) since the new player became influential. Same thing with political gaffes - you look at the performance indicator immediatley before and after the gaffe. In football terms you were trying to compare to a different squad playing in a different league.

Hope this makes a little more sense??

[ramAnag]

Can I just say one thing. We were discussing the impact of one Labour UTurn on capital markets and forex markets. Its is therefore utterly irrelevant what eg the forex rate was post Truss or pre Brexit. The question is how the markets reacted to the UTurn on the day - not where they ended up on the day compared to 3 or 9 years ago. Similarly how the capital markets spiked on the day, what rates were 3 or 9 years ago are irrelevant.

This is because we are trying to isolare the impact of one decision - Truss' budget disaster or reeves budget UTurn.

Let me try to put it in football terms. Derby sign a new striker for the start of next season who scores 10 goals in the first 10 games leaving us 5th in the EFL. How do you assess his impact on the team - do you look back on how well we were doing in 2022 or 2016? No you look at improvement (in this case) since the new player became influential. Same thing with political gaffes - you look at the performance indicator immediatley before and after the gaffe. In football terms you were trying to compare to a different squad playing in a different league.

Hope this makes a little more sense??

You can say whatever you like as long as we are both civil to one another.

To be completely honest once you start talking about capital markets and forex markets etc you are way over my head.

In my defence, although I appreciate the football analogy, I think the Reeves/Truss comparison was started by you and I merely ran with it.

Overall, I make no claim to understanding the minutiae of economic matters (just as well I here you say) but that does not prevent me from holding informed opinions on certain socio/economic issues.

To me the fact that so much is owned by so few and that the disparity between owners wealth and workers reward is so great, despite company achievements being an ultimately collective responsibility, is wrong. It is fundamentally unfair imo and that is really what the debate was about. Much is said about two tier Keir simply because the contrived rhyme holds an appeal for some, but the two, or more, tier system that we all live under warrants a great deal more attention imo.

[Geoff Parkstone]

You can say whatever you like as long as we are both civil to one another.

To be completely honest once you start talking about capital markets and forex markets etc you are way over my head.

In my defence, although I appreciate the football analogy, I think the Reeves/Truss comparison was started by you and I merely ran with it.

Overall, I make no claim to understanding the minutiae of economic matters (just as well I here you say) but that does not prevent me from holding informed opinions on certain socio/economic issues.

To me the fact that so much is owned by so few and that the disparity between owners wealth and workers reward is so great, despite company achievements being an ultimately collective responsibility, is wrong. It is fundamentally unfair imo and that is really what the debate was about. Much is said about two tier Keir simply because the contrived rhyme holds an appeal for some, but the two, or more, tier system that we all live under warrants a great deal more attention imo.

Not anything new there then. Review the history of UK for a moment. Let's pick serfdom, let's pick dickensian workhouses. You pick one....

Now let's compare this to today. There is a welfare state and a benefits support mechanism (not perfect we agree) a health and education system. Some sort of law and order. Most people in jobs get enough food, housing etc, Internet and communications, probably own a car, may well have an overseas holiday.

Yes they may look up to an Elon Musk or equivalent and think he's got so much more than me. But so would the serf to the baron, the workhouse orphan to the Duke. But I think I'd be happier as a "downtrodden worker" today than either serf or orphan At least my life expectancy is over 20 and I have a lot of the essentials.

Not saying the inequities are right but please don't make them out to be a new phenomenon. Over 100 years of Marxism hasn't made much of a dent -;your subsistence level Chinese "peasant" can attest to that when he looks at the concentration of wealth at the top.

None of this is a solution but these inequities have existed for a millennium. We can't expect a solution to be figured out amongst a dozen grumpy old men on a football forum.

[ramAnag]

Not anything new there then. Review the history of UK for a moment. Let's pick serfdom, let's pick dickensian workhouses. You pick one....

Now let's compare this to today. There is a welfare state and a benefits support mechanism (not perfect we agree) a health and education system. Some sort of law and order. Most people in jobs get enough food, housing etc, Internet and communications, probably own a car, may well have an overseas holiday.

Yes they may look up to an Elon Musk or equivalent and think he's got so much more than me. But so would the serf to the baron, the workhouse orphan to the Duke. But I think I'd be happier as a "downtrodden worker" today than either serf or orphan At least my life expectancy is over 20 and I have a lot of the essentials.

Not saying the inequities are right but please don't make them out to be a new phenomenon. Over 100 years of Marxism hasn't made much of a dent -;your subsistence level Chinese "peasant" can attest to that when he looks at the concentration of wealth at the top.

None of this is a solution but these inequities have existed for a millennium. We can't expect a solution to be figured out amongst a dozen grumpy old men on a football forum.

I take your point. I really do, but we are meant to be improving.

I will pick one. Epidemics and pandemics. In days gone by - in your words the days of serfdom or Victorian workhouses - those people would have been left to die. Covid would have been another Black Death, but - not including those who sought to profit from it - there is some evidence that we have improved in our attitude to certain communal and societal issues.

All I ask is why we cannot extend that? Why accept that it is some sort of God given right for the rich to get ever richer and simultaneously more powerful. We need to change and btw, who are you calling grumpy and are there really twelve of us?

[Geoff Parkstone]

Well maybe 12 was a hyperbole.

Just watching a surprisingly good set by The Ocees at Glastonbury on catch up. Recommended only 5 piece band I've ever seen with 2 drummers.