Election Year or Fear!

[ramAnag]

If Labour got really tough on illegal migration and equally tough on the grooming gangs, would that reduce or increase their vote?

I feel certain that being perceived as getting tough on both would be popular, but the fact is that neither are as significant as some make out.
I believe only around 1.5% of the UK population have been identified as being here illegally and some number between 4% and 25% (I know…a useless estimate but either way a tiny or significant minority) of s@xual abuse is conducted by those acting in groups, while the vast majority is the responsibility of individual, often domestic, perpetrators.

[Geoff Parkstone]

rA "But anyone sensible knows that immigration, or more to the point illegal immigration, isn?t the biggest problem..."

Whatever makes you think one is dealing with "sensible". 90% of the population aren't. You've perfectly illustrated my point. Stick your head in the sand and pretend the problem has gone away - it hasn't and won't until something concrete is seen to happen

[Andy_Faber]

IMHO Farage/ Reform are a growing attraction simply because they say they will address the single biggest issue that aggravates Joe public right now - immigration. In the view of those people (I believe) the mainstream parties have neither the will, stomach nor desire for that battle. Reform say they will - but it's easy to say what you will do if you get power, it's another thing entirely to do it (as Starmer has shown).

So Reform represents a "port in the storm" that a growing number of people turn to, and they care not a toss about other aspects of Reform's profile or ability to govern. They sure as hell don't care if garage has made an ill advised video clip.

Labour would be well advised to take heed. Act decisively on immigration, strongly, and they will cut the ground from under Reform's feet and they will become irrelevant and ultimately go back to being Tory. Do nothing and appease the "liberal do gooders" and they will face a firestorm. They won't garner enough immigrant votes in the next 4 years to control that storm, and it isn't going away. The major parties should learn a lesson from Brexit - it didn't go away, but could have if 15 years ago they weren't so arrogant as to know better than vox pop.

The above sort of sums things up. I've said before that the business I've run since 2009 has exposed me to the 'They' as Sith so dismissively calls them, and They've consistently increased in number, demographic and depth of entrenchment over that time. To some extent (in fact to every extent) we here in this forum are not only wasting our collective breath wrt one another, we are wasting our breath wrt the 'They' as well, the 'They' have decided there's a 'liberal elite' (govt, public bodies, mainstream media, 'celebs') who think they know best, and the 'They' are happy to give this elite another bloody nose just like Brexit if they are given chance, and bugger the consequences - remember most of these people have been let down by multiple 'old school' govts of many colours over decades anyway, so why not let the sky blues have a crack?

[Geoff Parkstone]

I feel certain that being perceived as getting tough on both would be popular, but the fact is that neither are as significant as some make out.
I believe only around 1.5% of the UK population have been identified as being here illegally and some number between 4% and 25% (I know…a useless estimate but either way a tiny or significant minority) of s@xual abuse is conducted by those acting in groups, while the vast majority is the responsibility of individual, often domestic, perpetrators.

So if neither are a "big" problem, it should be easy to do something about it ???

[SithHappens]

Jeremy Kyle

Id be 'Shocked'

[ramAnag]

The above sort of sums things up. I've said before that the business I've run since 2009 has exposed me to the 'They' as Sith so dismissively calls them, and They've consistently increased in number, demographic and depth of entrenchment over that time. To some extent (in fact to every extent) we here in this forum are not only wasting our collective breath wrt one another, we are wasting our breath wrt the 'They' as well, the 'They' have decided there's a 'liberal elite' (govt, public bodies, mainstream media, 'celebs') who think they know best, and the 'They' are happy to give this elite another bloody nose just like Brexit if they are given chance, and bugger the consequences - remember most of these people have been let down by multiple 'old school' govts of many colours over decades anyway, so why not let the sky blues have a crack?

Because the collective failure of those who have gone before doesn’t justify handing over the reins to those who we already know have nothing to offer and whose only contribution to date (Brexit) has only served to exacerbate the situation.

[Geoff Parkstone]

RA "those who we already know..."

I suggest this should be rephrased "those who I already think..." since clearly there are a significant number of people (perhaps even a majority) who disagree.

Or was it a royal "we" ?

[ramAnag]

RA "those who we already know..."

I suggest this should be rephrased "those who I already think..." since clearly there are a significant number of people (perhaps even a majority) who disagree.

Or was it a royal "we" ?

If you like, although the evidence provided by Reform run councils, all the evidence provided by the impact of Brexit, along with many examples of Farage’s own behaviour, suggests (to me at least) that he/they are completely unfit for purpose in terms of governing our country.

[ramAnag]

See Trump has increased UK and Danish tariffs as a result of our stance on Greenland.
Like a petulant child. Is there any such thing as diplomacy left in the U.S?

[Geoff Parkstone]

See Trump has increased UK and Danish tariffs as a result of our stance on Greenland.
Like a petulant child. Is there any such thing as diplomacy left in the U.S?

Dispassionately that seems a natural outcome and one I'm sure our government would utilise to try and enforce it's will on any dissenting nation. Well maybe not ours as it's spineless, but any "normal' government. It is diplomacy. Trump style!

[ramAnag]

Dispassionately that seems a natural outcome and one I'm sure our government would utilise to try and enforce it's will on any dissenting nation. Well maybe not ours as it's spineless, but any "normal' government. It is diplomacy. Trump style!

That’ll be a ‘no’ then!

[Ram Pant]

Because the collective failure of those who have gone before doesn?t justify handing over the reins to those who we already know have nothing to offer and whose only contribution to date (Brexit) has only served to exacerbate the situation.

Aren't all the Reform Ltd MP's former Blue Tory politicians. Aren't all the Reform Ltd career politicians not yet elected as Reform Ltd MP's former Blue Tory MP's. Does that not make them all, current and prospective Reform Ltd MP's, part of the collective failure that went before?

That's the idiocy of it all. So many Blue Tories who are part of the problem changing horses in a vain attempy to win a long lost race? They'll simply do more of the same and make things worse rather than better.

[Andy_Faber]

Because the collective failure of those who have gone before doesn?t justify handing over the reins to those who we already know have nothing to offer and whose only contribution to date (Brexit) has only served to exacerbate the situation.

But your ?we? is just four old farts on a moribund forum, it doesn?t represent the plebiscite who it would appear to be more open to giving someone new a chance

[SithHappens]

It will be interesting to see if the electorate will be more open minded in the long run.

Support for Reform appears to be eroding away in the polls, although they are still ahead, just less so.

And the public don't seem to have confidence in Farages ability as a PM as polling suggests every other leader is favoured in polls vs farage.

in fact the right wing media appear to be going into panic mode and suggesting a Reform/ Tory alliance is needed to prevent a labour victory at the next election.

I think there is a lot water yet to flow and Farage and his supporters confidence that the next election is already won may yet fail to transpire.

Farage has repeatedly stated Tories cannot be trusted, indeed yesterday he said 'The Tory party are treacherous liars and they cannot be trusted.', this at a time he appears to be opening his arms and accepting every such treacherous liar that wishes to defect to his party. Surely even he can see how badly this reflects on him and his party.

Starmer appears to be growing into the role and the guarantees given, even on this forum, that his tenure would be short, appear to be increasingly unfounded.

[ramAnag]

But your ?we? is just four old farts on a moribund forum, it doesn?t represent the plebiscite who it would appear to be more open to giving someone new a chance

My ‘we’ referred to that percentage of the electorate who have sufficient intelligence and insight to recognise Farage and Reform’s shortcomings rather than the majority on here who feel the same.

More interesting perhaps is your disrespectful reference to ‘four old farts’ on a ‘moribund forum’. If that’s your perception maybe it’s you who should ‘be more open to giving someone new a chance’. Certainly wasn’t a ‘moribund forum’ when you took over.