Checking in

[Ragatino]

Alreet lads & lasses.

Been a few weeks since I posted.

Work went crazy with the Irani conflict and the current status quo. Lots of uncertainty. With air travel being grounding travel has been by road. A lot less time sat in departure lounges and many more hours on the road. I can?t speak to much about what I?m doing. Gov. related media infrastructure stuff, mostly boring but somewhat sensitive.

Anyway, It?s Eid al Adha. The festival of sacrifice. Basically, the murder a lamb by hanging it by the beast feet and slit it?s through, pray to it and eat it. Yep, proper sophisticated. I highly recommend for all your kids birthday parties! Haha It?s rather shocking, as a centre piece of a party, if it?s not expected.

As such I?ve given myself a day off. Gonna enjoy a doing very little. Gym, Sauna, Jacuzzi, cook and eat.

This morning I?ve been perusing the current threads and discussions.

I'd also like to say a thanks to the lads who have been asking after me in posts. I appreciate your concern. Rest assured, It'll be me and the cockroaches repopulating the planet when the bomb drops haha I can not be killed by conventional methods. hahaha

Rather than respond to each individually I decided to post some headlines here and give my ten bobs worth to each point. Gonna split these into separate comments to allow easier responses and replies rather than post a War & Peace size post.

- End of season ? Fizzle Out
No surprise from me. The noises from people I know at the club made it clear to me that there was zero appetite to compete in the Europa Conference League competition what-so-ever. The word around the squad at Fulham was that during the 2nd half when they gathered for a quick water whilst someone was receiving treatment, BDB ask ?what?s the West Ham score?? They were all on the beach. A bit disappointing, would have been nice to secure a win but it?s emblematic of the season. A turd that took 38 flushes to get rid of. Fortunately, the banger has finally slipped around the U-Bend, destined for the sewer of football history.

The discussions at Maften Hall confirmed that the board were not bothered should Eddie fail to qualify for Europe. If it meant flying out for Thursday nights away to Slovenian powerhouses - NK Celje, The colossus of Gibraltar - Lincoln Red Imps FC or The Fighting Irish, pride of the Emerald Isle, the mighty Shamrock Rovers for the princely prize money of ?6m!

An extra 11-15 games for ?6m. Pointless. To put things into context. each Prem place is worth ?3.25m - ?3.5m. NUFC finished 12 this season. Finishing 10th would have earned the club ?7m more.

NUFC finished on 49 points 2 wins and the lads would have finished 7th head of the Mackems by 1 point and qualified for the Europa League.
2 game = ?7m + the Semi Riches & prestige of UEFA?s 2nd tier competition. You can see why

Without doubt NUFC finish at least 2 places, more likely considerably higher, avoiding the hours of jet travel, missed training session and miles and miles more meters ran in the heat of competitive matches.

[Ragatino]

- Can Eddie take the club forward/evolve as a manager?
Yes. Of course. Class is permanent form is temporary.

Class – Brought Bournemouth from bankruptcy at the bottom, 91st place in the football pyramid, of EFL League 2. The situation was dire:
The Penalty: The Cherries had been handed a severe 17-point deduction for financial issues and entering administration.
The Deficit: When Howe took caretaker charge on New Year's Eve in 2008, the club was 10 points adrift of safety and facing potential liquidation.

Eddie Howe brought that club to the Premier League buying shirt for the players along the way.
He took over at Newcastle United and took the club from relegation certainties to 11th in the league, qualifying for the Champions League the following season.
2 UCL stints and the first cup on his career + the first domestic cup in 70s yrs for the club. The man’s got the chops to continue to evolve.

All the evidence is there.

Form – this season has stank, not a complete washout. Just inconsistent. I’ve detailed on dozens of occasions the reason around this season’s under achievements.

- Eales dying duck, should have gone months earlier
- Mitchell I honestly believe this man was a saboteur
- Howe suffers Pneumonia, no summer holiday, no rest, has been low energy all season
- I-Suk’s awful behaviour shattering the unity of the squad
- Recruitment without a DoF

All well documented. All factual and valid. The dye was cast before the window closed.

The board/ownership are responsible for the failure to recruit, not Eddie Howe. I’ve commented more on Recruitment below, but, Wilson has just sold Gordon for a very decent profit. No fuss no muss. They clearly accept that the disarray at the top of the club CEO/DoF disasters is on them not Howe. I respect them taking ownership of that disaster and the negative impact on the season just wrapped.

Last summer all the talk was about altering the playing style. Eddie leading this discussion and ambition to evolve the playing style to suit 2 games a week.

The I-Suk business grenaded the squad cohesion. We’ve all seen it, the band of brothers kicking and scratching for every point were fragmented into factions this season. Tripz & Gordon beefing, Bruno & Willock more recently kicking off. It’s clear that it’s not been a happy camp this season. Losing 27 points from leading positions, weak under belly exposed, that never happened when the squad were united.

Gordon clearly on I-Suk’s side, we saw Botman sign a new contract, allegedly another No.14 ally. It appears the rotten negative core is being removed from the squad.

Eddie’s more recent comments about the squad ‘loving each other, like family/brothers’ rings true that that close natured unity has to be rekindled. Shipping out the rotten apples, Gordon, Murphy Willock is mandatory in my opinion. 1 down, 2 to go.

[Ragatino]

- Transfers – The Age of Wilson
Gordon gone for €80m - ?70m (?69.324m) – Excellent business

Gordon - Joined '23 5 yr contract
Price Incl. add-ons - ?45.00
annual amortised depreciation - ?9.00
Book value before New Contract - ?36.00

New 5-year Contract '24
Value - 1-year Amortised value - ?36.00
annual amortised depreciation - ?7.20
Current book value of player - ?21.60

NUFC asking price - ?70.00
NUFC profit - ?58.40
Everton owed 15% of profit = ?3.75m
NUFC bank = ?54.75m hard cash
PSR/SCR - accounting recorded profit = ?70m
Great business by Wilson. Great start to the transfer window.
A quality revenue generating bit of business without the marathon of media abuse endure with the I-suk deal. 130m for him, 70m for Gordon. 200m in player sales revenue to reinvest in the squad
Also, Tripz 150k, Gordon 150k, Krafth 55k = 355,000 / week off the wage bill.
There are a few others like Rudy etc not big earners but off the wage bill to enable Wilson to appropriate funds to player wage rises like Hall, Bruno & Miley.
NUFC’s financial issues around SCR/PSR are not related to Transfer fees. It’s Wages. Club offers for players like Ekitike, Sesko, Joao Pedro etc all accepted. The transfers Collapsed due to cartel clubs offered double the wages per week NUFC could offer.

Players linked are all exciting young quality with exceptionally high potential. I’ve been told that at the Maften hall recruitment meeting ownership stated they want to make a Marque signing, a real statement. Whether that’s an elite Goalkeeper like Diogo Costa or an elite Striker / Left Winger remains to be seen. This season’s down fall has been losing 20+ goals from I-Suk’s departure and the leaking of 20+ goals due to Pope aging out. Pope’s shoulder injury a few years back, the natural decline of a player of his age combined with his poor ball manipulation has factored in 27 lost points across the season. Ramsdale keep only a single clean sheet all season. Not good enough. Smart move to loan the player. The Club saved themselves a 21m quid mistake at the minimal cost of a 4m quid
These issues MUST be resolved this summer.
Goal Keepers:
Ewen Jaouen (close) visited the club
Diogo Costa not public but I’ve heard that contact has been made to discuss a potential transfer. Porto open to selling the keeper for the right price. Keeper looking for a step up in his career. It could happen.
Gabriel Menegon (17 at Gremio) for the future
Mio Backhaus strong links and heavily scouted

My top pick – Diogo Costa for first choice at 26 yrs old perfect to replace Pope. + Ewen Jaouen to deputise and develop, at 20yrs old he’ll be reaching his peak as Costa ages out in around 6-7 seasons.

Defenders:
CBs
Viery - Germio, Abdul Karim Coulibaly - Bremen, Jan Ziolkowski – Roma
FBs
Methalie (L Toulouse, Wesley (R Roma, Wan-Bisssaka (R West Ham

My top pick
CB - Viery
LB - Mathalie
RB - Wesley (if Tino leaves, AWB as back up if not)

It depends on if Miley is gonna shift to RB as an option or stick in CMF

Midfielders:
Victor Froholdt - Porto, Lamine Camara - Monaco, Kevin Danois - Auxerre, Issa Doumbia - Venezia, Athur Atta – Udinese, Kees Smit - AZ Alkmaar, Aleksandar Stankovic – Brugge, Ayyoub Bouaddi - Lille

CMs - My top pick – Lamine Camara
If willock stays, Camara. If Willock leaves, I would love Smit however, I don’t see it happening, he’ll go to a Euro Cartel club no doubt.
Another factor is what happens with Miley? Is he gonna shift to RB as an option or stick in CMF?

There could well be 2 CMFs needed. With or without Willock leaving. 2nd choice would be Danois or Ayyoub Bouaddi. Both young enough not to be vexed at being in a Prem Squad, yet good enough to offer quality off the bench without a massive drop off when called upon.

Wingers:
LWs:
Antonio Nusa - RB Leipzig, Bazoumana Tour? - Hoffenheim, Mathias Fernandez-Pardo - Lille, Christos Tzolis - Brugge, Victor Munoz - Osasuna, Abdessamad Ezzalzouli - Real Betis

My top pick - Fernandez-Pardo / Christos Tzolis

Most of the LW players scouted and linked play both sides.
Nusa is attracting Cartel team attention. NUFC need to avoid this kind of transfer hassle.
Nusa it’s not a transfer saga NUFC wants to get involved with.
Ramsey could also move back to the LW position to rotate with the new signing and Barnes.

RWs:
Ibrahim Mbaye – PSG is the only genuine RW linked however it’s tenuous. However, all the LW targets play both sides. Versatility & flexibility is what the club are looking at.

Regarding Strikers I’ve no idea what’s going to happen. There hasn’t been a lot of players linked. Jonathan David, Gancalo Ramos, as usual. However, any striker target would be subject to Wissa &/or Osula leaving.

I’d love to see the club’s Marque signing be Osimhen. That would be a real statement and a player who would get 20+ goals a season. Selling both Wissa and Osula replacing them with Osimhen & Gonzalo Garcia would be my dream pair to play with Woltemade in that False Nine / deep laying Nine role.

Getting Rid of Gordon early doors for top dollar - Massive lessons learned from Last season. That's my take away from the whole saga. Clearly the C-Suite are engaged and things are firing on all cylinders

This section is long enough as it is. I’ll leave it here.

[Ragatino]

- Maften Hall meeting – Attendees/rumours of 20% sale & what it means for Stadium etc

Amanda and Mehrdad were at the meetings. They’ve remained involved with the club since their departure. With Eales & his cadre removed from leadership Amanda’s been brought back closer to the PiF Leadership, however, this relationship won’t be as public as previously to ensure Hopkinson’s leadership is not confused in the eyes of supporters.

What does it mean?

Well the 20% sale reported is not accurate.

PiF have been approached by several parties interested in taking sakes in the club between 20-25% the money is around ?300m.

This is excellent news on many levels.

1. It shows the club is attracting massive global interest
2. 20% @ 300m = club value is 1.5B quid. This is excellent as it means the club’s sponsorship contract are going to be reflective of a club of this value. It increases the value any potential ‘fair market value’ of any deal closer to the value of those deals done by cartel clubs, the Premier League will not be able to push back.
3. Sela shirt sponsor was 25m quid. The replacement shirt deal could be 40m quid, for a 1.5B quid brand, 40m quid is the going rate. Simple
4. Big business, like PiF never spend their own money Infrastructure spending. The stadium and training ground will be financed. Equity is always favourable to debt. The Man U debt model is a cautionary tale. No one wants that situation. So preferable to give equity to an investor of 20% with equity buy back over 5-10 yrs or when the revenue generated from the stadium’s non-football events or associated revenue streams such as long-term sponsors etc

The restructuring of finances of the stadium lease & Leazes Terrace acquisition all point to major moves in the Stadium build in Leazes Park. The Terrace acquisition is not just to remove any complaint or opposition but it’s with a future view to re-develop the property into a Luxury onsite 5* hotel complex for overseas executive corporate fans.

Yes, owning the property means less opposition to the development in the park & no doubt there will be more investment from PiF in the ‘Parks of Newcastle’ as well as a sensitive redevelopment of the bandstand and listed terrace inside the park, relocating it to somewhere in the current St James Park ground foot print as part of the entire Stadium approach redevelopment.

Exciting times ahead for the major infrastructure project linked to the club, for sure!

[Ragatino]

- Sunderland Qualify for Europe
Don’t care at all.
I do care about Losing twice to those clowns, that is ridiculous. That can not happen again.
Had Howe beaten the Mackems twice this season the grumbles from the negative Nancys in the fanbase the noises against him would have been considerably muted.

My comments regarding Slot last summer, regarding 2nd season syndrome I have been vindicated. I repeat my claims on steroids regarding the Wearside puddle drinkers. With European competition their 2nd season is going to be mountain to climb with a massive first season hangover.

With a few decent early results in Europe they could foolishly believe they can win it. That ego will no doubt see their league for suffer. Potentially this time next season the turd could have been flushed back down the khazi to the Championship from whence it came.

[Zippity]

Great to see you back, Raga. You were missed and we were getting a wee bit concerned.

As ever, some really good insight on goings on regarding PIF, especially the Matfen Hall meeting. Love the idea of Leazes Terrace being developed into a luxury hotel.

Any news on the timescale of a new stadium?

[HughieG]

Very exciting post, Raga! Keep 'em coming.

I'd love us to sign Froholdt. Player of the year in Portugal - his first season there he's been instrumental in getting the title back to Porto. He'll be expensive, but a midfield of him, Tonali and Bruno - blimey!

[Zippity]

On a related note, I hope Bill (ex-Pat) is ok. Have only seen him post intermittently recently.

[Curian]

Nice to see you back and thanks for the insights, as always very illuminating.

[Jammy89]

On a related note, I hope Bill (ex-Pat) is ok. Have only seen him post intermittently recently.

Aye - same.

Good to see you back Raga and glad you're all good.

Solid points you have raised.

Interesting about Mandy and co, hopefully she can get some better communciation between fans and board, not leaving it all on Eddie.