Not Fade Away

As the weeks go by and the good results continue, this is beginning to look more and more like the real thing. But I know that there have been other seasons in Notts’ recent past when a good start has turned to dust, so I thought it was worth a look back to compare those seasons with the present one....

There are two benchmarks for each of those seasons - the point at which the bubble burst, and the position after 18 games, which is the number we’ve played so far this season.

In 2005/6 (Manager, Gudjon Thordarson) we got to 10th September in 1st place with 16 points from 8 games. After 18 games, we were 12th with 27 points. Our final position was 21st with 52 points (and only escaped relegation on the last day).

In 2012/3 (Manager, Keith Curle) we got to 24th November in 6th place with 34 points from 20 games. After 18 games, we had been 7th with 30 points. Our final position was 12th with 65 points.

In 2014/5 (Manager, Shaun Derry) we got to 15th November in 4th place with 29 points from 16 games. After 18 games, we were 6th with 30 points. Our final position was 21st with 50 points (and, of course, we were relegated on the last day).

We presently have 37 points from 18 games , which is a far better record than any of the above seasons at their respective high points.

Nothing is guaranteed, but this comparison suggests that we are not going to fade away in the same manner as those other years, and that we’re likely to stay in the promotion race for the rest of the season. Even a collapse of the same proportions as 2014/5 would result in a final total of 58 points which is enough for a position just below half way, and given the strength and character of the current squad and Manager, that seems inconceivable.

I reckon we’ve got a real chance...

Great post based on facts

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Frigiliana Pie 1

As the weeks go by and the good results continue, this is beginning to look more and more like the real thing. But I know that there have been other seasons in Notts’ recent past when a good start has turned to dust, so I thought it was worth a look back to compare those seasons with the present one....

There are two benchmarks for each of those seasons - the point at which the bubble burst, and the position after 18 games, which is the number we’ve played so far this season.

In 2005/6 (Manager, Gudjon Thordarson) we got to 10th September in 1st place with 16 points from 8 games. After 18 games, we were 12th with 27 points. Our final position was 21st with 52 points (and only escaped relegation on the last day).

In 2012/3 (Manager, Keith Curle) we got to 24th November in 6th place with 34 points from 20 games. After 18 games, we had been 7th with 30 points. Our final position was 12th with 65 points.

In 2014/5 (Manager, Shaun Derry) we got to 15th November in 4th place with 29 points from 16 games. After 18 games, we were 6th with 30 points. Our final position was 21st with 50 points (and, of course, we were relegated on the last day).

We presently have 37 points from 18 games , which is a far better record than any of the above seasons at their respective high points.

Nothing is guaranteed, but this comparison suggests that we are not going to fade away in the same manner as those other years, and that we’re likely to stay in the promotion race for the rest of the season. Even a collapse of the same proportions as 2014/5 would result in a final total of 58 points which is enough for a position just below half way, and given the strength and character of the current squad and Manager, that seems inconceivable.

I reckon we’ve got a real chance...

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The difference is we now have a decent manager and some decent players.....

We’re also 9 points ahead of where we were at the same point during the Munto season.

If we are still where we are in 6 weeks time then we should have hit the 50 point mark. That’s where we then have to decide as a club are we serious about automatic promotion and challenging for the title, or happy to try and finish in the top 7?

If we are still top or in the automatic promotion places I’d say yes let’s do it and give ourselves a season to remember for all the best reasons. AH, KN and everyone connected with the club deserves success.

I’m quietly confident we have the best chance of not falling away because this new era and new team (which includes owner and manager) have been together for 11 months now.

To think we have only lost once in the league at home so far in 2017 is astonishing. It would be intresting to know when was the last time we got to the middle of November with only one home defeat in the calendar year.

Also this stat gives me optimism, which I don’t care if I repeat it 1,000 times.

Kevin Nolan - Notts County Manager

P44, W23, D9, L12, Pts 78

Win Ratio = 52.3%

These are the facts.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by MAD_MAGPIE

Also this stat gives me optimism, which I don’t care if I repeat it 1,000 times.

Kevin Nolan - Notts County Manager

P44, W23, D9, L12, Pts 78

Win Ratio = 52.3%

These are the facts.

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That sat (if correct) would give us 81.5 points over 46 games, but let's round up to 82 points. Last year that would have put us in 4th position and the play offs. I am actually more optimistic than that.

But I don't think it is correct, as it includes cup games. The real stat (subject to red wine error) is:

P39, W21, D8, L10 Pts 71, which equates to 84 over 46 games, again 4th place.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Bohinen

That sat (if correct) would give us 81.5 points over 46 games, but let's round up to 82 points. Last year that would have put us in 4th position and the play offs. I am actually more optimistic than that.

But I don't think it is correct, as it includes cup games. The real stat (subject to red wine error) is:

P39, W21, D8, L10 Pts 71, which equates to 84 over 46 games, again 4th place.

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It just goes to show that we have displayed promotion form consistently since the start of the year which is built on our excellent home record.

When we finished in our highest league position in the past 22 years (since we got relegated from the second tier) under Keith Curle that was built on a solid away record.

Therefore our home form will be key to us challenging for promotion like it has been responsible for us maintaining a 4th place position in 2017 so far.