As the weeks go by and the good results continue, this is beginning to look more and more like the real thing. But I know that there have been other seasons in Notts’ recent past when a good start has turned to dust, so I thought it was worth a look back to compare those seasons with the present one....
There are two benchmarks for each of those seasons - the point at which the bubble burst, and the position after 18 games, which is the number we’ve played so far this season.
In 2005/6 (Manager, Gudjon Thordarson) we got to 10th September in 1st place with 16 points from 8 games. After 18 games, we were 12th with 27 points. Our final position was 21st with 52 points (and only escaped relegation on the last day).
In 2012/3 (Manager, Keith Curle) we got to 24th November in 6th place with 34 points from 20 games. After 18 games, we had been 7th with 30 points. Our final position was 12th with 65 points.
In 2014/5 (Manager, Shaun Derry) we got to 15th November in 4th place with 29 points from 16 games. After 18 games, we were 6th with 30 points. Our final position was 21st with 50 points (and, of course, we were relegated on the last day).
We presently have 37 points from 18 games , which is a far better record than any of the above seasons at their respective high points.
Nothing is guaranteed, but this comparison suggests that we are not going to fade away in the same manner as those other years, and that we’re likely to stay in the promotion race for the rest of the season. Even a collapse of the same proportions as 2014/5 would result in a final total of 58 points which is enough for a position just below half way, and given the strength and character of the current squad and Manager, that seems inconceivable.
I reckon we’ve got a real chance...