Quote Originally Posted by drillerpie View Post
Or because in a country which is highly polarised along geographical lines, with that type of electoral system, and with the social ramifications of identifying as a Trump supporter, national polls don't really matter?

I wouldn't touch this betting market with barge pole to be honest - way too close to call in my view.
The polls were spot on in the midterms a couple of years ago, and they weren’t as far out as a lot of people seem to think in 2016. If you don’t take them into account when betting on this market you’re a bit daft imo.

I suppose we’ll soon see if it’s ‘too close to call’. There’s not much evidence of that, and I don’t see any reason why the polls will be that far out. For all Biden’s shortcomings, Trump has been a truly dreadful President.