Quote Originally Posted by andy6025 View Post
It?s about as worth discussing as the topic of aliens invading from outer space because they are upset that Jerry Seinfeld?s show got cancelled.

As for Jampie?s comment about going to war over Taiwan. The Chinese want a peaceful reunification with Taiwan and are patient enough to wait for it, with the exception of some major provocation from the west. But even then, Australia and the rest of us will wait for the US?s lead, and so far all their war gaming over the scenario has indicated a heavy US defeat when they don?t put their thumbs on the scale. It just ain?t going to happen. The military spending hoopla is all about the graft.
Oh thank god! The Chinese have said they want a peaceful reunification with Taiwan. That settles that. Everyone should stop worrying. The US can cut its defence budget in half. Twice. Phew!

Just like when they said they would support "One Country Two Systems" with Hong Kong. Hong Kong democracy and self governance is going strong today so we've nothing to worry about!!!1

All their military posturing in the south China sea is just show everyone how peaceful their intentions are!

They might want a "peaceful reunification" with Taiwan, but it's very unlikely now. Taiwanese saw what happened to Hong Kong, which is now firmly under authoritarian rule, and they will know that any similar assurances for them are lies. Remember, China has also stated that they intend to use force to reunify if necessary. I personally think they absolutely will - when the calculus is that the benefits outweigh the risks.

Right now they don't. China is behind on a series of military technologies that are critical to an operation like seizing Taiwan. But they're catching up slowly. That's why I think 2030's, 2040s, later is the timeframe of higher risk.