Why we need to finish 3rd...

[ellafella]

Ella: I have to say this is ********. Historically you may have a point, but we are not dealing with history here, no matter what statistics you throw at it. Just because teams finishing 3rd have won proportionately more than teams finishing elsewhere, that does not mean it will happen next time.

If you toss a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, it is no more likely to be a tail on the 11th spin than it is a head.

Unless you have a runaway 3rd place team (which we do not) its all about FORM. We all agree that "on any given day..." anyone can beat anyone so the deciding factor isnt really historic but what happens on the day.

Much as it pains me to say, form is the key and Rat is right. My fingers ache just saying that. Its a bit like swearing in church. You know you shouldn't but sometimes you just have to.

Roger goodness me, I wasn't for one second proposing that all we have to do is to finish 3rd and that

[swaledale]

Actualy Ella is right that statistically 3rd place is the best place to finish, however all statistics have to be interpreted and statistics only show a pattern what the most likely probability is, they are not a definate statement as to what will happen.

Apart from his total misunderstanding on what statistics mean, Rat's comments are indeed correct.

a from team who surge into the play offs often do well, thus far there is no sign of that though all teams in 3rd to around 11th position sem to be having very inconsistent results.

I can only assume the fester result is due to their having taken their foot off the gas having ben promoted, which could bode well for those who have yet to play them!

[KingCharlieGeorge]

You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?

Interesting logic there Rattea and incorrect also. The team finishing third has the largest single proportionate share of success than any of the te

[roger_ramjet]

Its interesting isn't it. 10 out of 26 times teams finishing 3rd go up: 38.5%. Therefore 61.5% of the time they do not.

So whilst teams finishing 3rd have historically been the most successful, it is more often the case that teams NOT finishing 3rd will go up.

Ergo historically a team finishing 3rd is more likely to not go up than to go up. But it is more likely to go up than teams individually finishing 4th, 5th or 6th.

Der...my brain hurts

Form, injury, nerve, experience are still the key issues. And Spaniards missing penalties

[Fletch_11]

Its interesting isn't it. 10 out of 26 times teams finishing 3rd go up: 38.5%. Therefore 61.5% of the time they do not.

So whilst teams finishing 3rd have historically been the most successful, it is more often the case that teams NOT finishing 3rd will go up.

Ergo historically a team finishing 3rd is more likely to not go up than to go up. But it is more likely to go up than teams individually finishing 4th, 5th or 6th.

Der...my brain hurts

Form, injury, nerve, experience are still the key issues. And Spaniards missing penalties

We have had varying levels of playoff success since being relegated in the early 90s

After finishing 3rd in 91 we lost to Blackburn in the semi-finals 5-4 on aggregate
After finishing 6th in 94 we beat Millwall 5-1 in the semi-finals before losing in the final to cheating Leicester
After finishing 4th in 05 we lost to Preston in the semi-finals 2-0 on aggregate
After finishing 3rd in 07 we be

[ellafella]

...So whilst teams finishing 3rd have historically been the most successful, it is more often the case that teams NOT finishing 3rd will go up.

Ergo historically a team finishing 3rd is more likely to not go up than to go up. But it is more likely to go up than teams individually finishing 4th, 5th or 6th.

Der...my brain hurts

Form, injury, nerve, experience are still the key issues. And Spaniards missing penalties

The emboldened text is precisely my point as you clearly know Roger. Thank you for explaining it so beautifully. I always imagine you to be a tanned, silver-haired chap floating in his yacht in the Med, whilst periodically sipping on a Martini and surfing the web on his mini IPad. A former Accountant turned bad, who deposited millions offshore before disappearing. Is that the case, Roger? Did you use to do Howard Marks' accounts for him?

[roger_ramjet]

...So whilst teams finishing 3rd have historically been the most successful, it is more often the case that teams NOT finishing 3rd will go up.

Ergo historically a team finishing 3rd is more likely to not go up than to go up. But it is more likely to go up than teams individually finishing 4th, 5th or 6th.

Der...my brain hurts

Form, injury, nerve, experience are still the key issues. And Spaniards missing penalties

The emboldened text is precisely my point as you clearly know Roger. Thank you for explaining it so beautifully. I always imagine you to be a tanned, silver-haired chap floating in his yacht in the Med, whilst periodically sipping on a Martini and surfing the web on his mini IPad. A former Accountant turned bad, who deposited millions offshore before disappearing. Is that the case, Roger? Did you use to do Howard Marks' accounts for him? [/quote]

Well lets

[triz]

We all know what you look like rog after you put up a picture of yourself holding a fish.

[AngryRam]

I'm staying well out of this stats thread... However I have met Mr Ramjet and I can confirm you are all well off beam. He's more a young Tom Cruise

[roger_ramjet]

Aww come on Angry, Im not that much of a shortass