Why we need to finish 3rd...

[ellafella]

...if we want to go up through the play-offs.

The team finishing 3rd, not surprisingly, has won promotion more times than any other, with 10 out of 26 play-off finals being won by the 3rd placed team, compared with 4 finishing 4th, 7 finishing 5th and 5 finishing 6th.

The team to avoid is Ipswich, who have played in more play-off games than any other club, yet they have made the final only once. Statistically, you might argue that they are due a successful play-off, but then again probability doesn't really work like that.

So, we need 3rd place.

[swaledale]

'd agree as it stands now, but the caveat is IF one of the chasing pack gets into 6th place and we finish playing a team which is on a ru of form and confidence generated by achieving 6th place unexpectedly.

But then again its a lottery, if the luck is with us wherever we finish then we will win. Enjoy the ride and just be thankful we are it seems heading for at least two more significant games at the end of the season, rather than cementing a secure midtable place!

[Manofpride]

Anywhere in the top 6 will do me. No matter where you finish up in the top 6 the aim is to win the games allocated. Win the last three games and you're guaranteed promotion!

[roger_ramjet]

Actually MOP you only have avoid defeat in the 3 games - draws will do, using away goals double and penalties!!

The debate is interesting one, but at the end of the day you have to deal with whoever you get. But for what its worth, QPR and Wigan are very patchy at the moment (as are we!) and so to end up playing one of them home and away would not be the worst thing in the world.

Reading are also scratching around for wins, and if they were to back into the playoffs with indifferent results, that wouldn't be so bad.

What fears me the most would be a team like Ipswich, Bournemouth, Brighton etc hitting a streak and maybe winning 4 of next 5 to leapfrog into 6th at the last minute. That would mean finishing 3rd would set us up against a team on a high having won may 6 or 7 of their last 8 games to get in.

Maybe the devil you know (QPR and Wigan) would be a better semi final opponent therefore, than the mystery team that may grab 6th. We have split the matches with both these teams

[Rattea]

You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?

[roger_ramjet]

**** me, the rat and I are in agreement. All is wrong in the world today. The moon is blue and the ****erel crowed at dusk last night

[thederbyram]

[quote="roger_ramjet"]Actually MOP you only have avoid defeat in the 3 games - draws will do, using away goals double and penalties!!

The debate is interesting one, but at the end of the day you have to deal with whoever you get. But for what its worth, QPR and Wigan are very patchy at the moment (as are we!) and so to end up playing one of them home and away would not be the worst thing in the world.

Reading are also scratching around for wins, and if they were to back into the playoffs with indifferent results, that wouldn't be so bad.

What fears me the most would be a team like Ipswich, Bournemouth, Brighton etc hitting a streak and maybe winning 4 of next 5 to leapfrog into 6th at the last minute. That would mean finishing 3rd would set us up against a team on a high having won may 6 or 7 of their last 8 games to get in.

Maybe the devil you know (QPR and Wigan) would be a better semi final opponent therefore, than the mystery team that may grab 6th

[ellafella]

You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?

Interesting logic there Rattea and incorrect also. The team finishing third has the largest single proportionate share of success than any of the teams finishing in any of the other play-off posi

[roger_ramjet]

Ella: I have to say this is ********. Historically you may have a point, but we are not dealing with history here, no matter what statistics you throw at it. Just because teams finishing 3rd have won proportionately more than teams finishing elsewhere, that does not mean it will happen next time.

If you toss a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, it is no more likely to be a tail on the 11th spin than it is a head.

Unless you have a runaway 3rd place team (which we do not) its all about FORM. We all agree that "on any given day..." anyone can beat anyone so the deciding factor isnt really historic but what happens on the day.

Much as it pains me to say, form is the key and Rat is right. My fingers ache just saying that. Its a bit like swearing in church. You know you shouldn't but sometimes you just have to.

[roger_ramjet]

Oh yeah, my bad. Nonetheless we still dont have to win any of the last 3 games of the season to be promoted...