Why we need to finish 3rd...

[triz]

You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?

Interesting logic there Rattea and incorrect also

[Ramondo]

There are so many variables as to why teams win and lose in the play offs that the number of successes and failures in each finishing position can't possibly be used to accurately gauge the best position to finish in.

I mean, yes you CAN use these numbers and they will give you a statistical answer but it doesn't really mean much without the important data behind them to quantify it all.

Form is a word used already in this thread and it is probably the most key stat we could use. The team finishing 6th might be in the best form, however they might also be the worst if they were 3rd a few weeks earlier.

What would be really worthwhile would be to calculate form both in terms of points and maybe even goal difference during the last 6 games of each season for the 4 teams in the play offs, going back at least 10 years, then assessing what ratio of successful promotions were achieved from what level of 'form'. You could then compare that data with teams 3rd - 6th finishing positions to

[Gift_of_the_Gabb]

You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?

Interes

[blackandwhite56]

You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?

Interesting logic there Rattea and incorrect also

[triz]

[quote="Gift_of_the_Gabb"]You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you

[Toggles]

You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?

Interes

[Rattea]

[quote="Ramondo"]There are so many variables as to why teams win and lose in the play offs that the number of successes and failures in each finishing position can't possibly be used to accurately gauge the best position to finish in.

I mean, yes you CAN use these numbers and they will give you a statistical answer but it doesn't really mean much without the important data behind them to quantify it all.

Form is a word used already in this thread and it is probably the most key stat we could use. The team finishing 6th might be in the best form, however they might also be the worst if they were 3rd a few weeks earlier.

What would be really worthwhile would be to calculate form both in terms of points and maybe even goal difference during the last 6 games of each season for the 4 teams in the play offs, going back at least 10 years, then assessing what ratio of successful promotions were achieved from what level of 'form'. You could then compare that data

[Rattea]

[quote="blackandwhite56"]You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are on fire finishing sixth and us third you still think we stand a better chance?[/quot

[Gift_of_the_Gabb]

[quote="triz"]You don't want third if the team finishing in sixth is a team in a rich vein of form and on the assemdency!!!

To predict what your position is and gives you the best chance at this point is just a lucky dip!

You need to know form, player availability, etc etc.

So the only time is going in to the last game.

Using 3rd has gone up 10 out of 26 times means nothing. You could say that's less than 50% so better off in another position. Just random and not statistical based on anything except those in third are usually better than the teams below bit not always in a playoff position!

Brighton thrashed fester last night. If they win every game and are

[swaledale]

The team finshing 3rd has been promoted 10 times out of the 26 quoted, ergo that team hs been promoted on more occasions than teams finishing 4th, 5th or 6th. SIMPLES.

Of course if you add up the teams finishing 4th 5th and 6th then collectively those teams not finishing 3rd have been promoted on more occasions than a team finsishing 3rd...BUT that was not the point Ella was trying to make.

On that basis the probability is that the team finishing 3rd has a greater chance of promotion than either teams that finish 4th, or teams that finish 5th or teams that finish 6th.

However, will anyone put there mortgage on such a probability? Unlikely.