Road to Fascism ?

[EintrachtFrankfurt]

Road to Fascism?

Pretty much another reason for Scotland to get out of this godforsaken "union" of unequals before its to late!

[sancho_panza]

Road to Fascism?

Pretty much another reason for Scotland to get out of this godforsaken "union" of unequals before its to late!

It's only been two years since the last referendum, but the arguments have already changed pretty substantially. The political case for independence has become much stronger, not only because of Brexit, but because of the general deterioration of the UK's party system into one electorally successful (but horrific anti-immigrant and populist) party in the shape of the Tories, and a load of completely unelectable parties that can't provide credible opposition.

On the other hand, the economic case for independence is now much worse. In 2014 if you read any of the Yes campaign material you'd probably have seen a figure stating that we generate 9.9% of UK revenue but receive only 9.3% of UK spending. That was a figure based on numbers from 2011-12. The equivalent figure today is 7.9% of UK revenue and 9.1% of UK spending. I don't care how strongly in favour of independence someone is, you'd have to be sticking your head in the sand to avoid acknowledging that's a worse set of figures to build the case on.

And Sturgeon knows that so I expect she's going to drag it out until the figures improve and the situation is more favourable (she's also probably aware Brexit is going to drag on until after 2019 - there's a two year limit on negotiations once Article 50 is triggered, but the deal they actually sign could well put several months or even years of a transition period on top of that). Plus if you think Brexit will be a mess and prove unpopular once reality kicks in, which I do, then you might as well sit it out and watch opinion shift. Personally, I think Scotland will vote for independence, but probably in the early 2020s.

[stewarty27]

On the other hand, the economic case for independence is now much worse. In 2014 if you read any of the Yes campaign material you'd probably have seen a figure stating that we generate 9.9% of UK revenue but receive only 9.3% of UK spending. That was a figure based on numbers from 2011-12. The equivalent figure today is 7.9% of UK revenue and 9.1% of UK spending. I don't care how strongly in favour of independence someone is, you'd have to be sticking your head in the sand to avoid acknowledging that's a worse set of figures to build the case on.

.

Of course your right Sancho and Im sure its the first thing Project Fear2 will throw at Independence. But it has to be remembered Scotland's economics are those within the Union. The whole point of Indy is to do things different and more tailored to our needs.

An independent Scotland could borrow for a start - https://en.wikipedia.org/.../List_of...ries_by_public... - this shows public sector debt across the world. Economic performance can go up as well as down. The GERS figures make certain assumptions (worth asking SNP MPs to delve into these reserved matters for more clarity?) - e.g. Scotlands 'share' of UK infrastructure and defence costs for example, the Police Scotland VAT discrepancy. The biggest bill is the Social Protection but as this becomes more devolved it can be made more efficient. 'Accounting Adjustments' and 'Public Sector Debt Interest' may look a lot different as well. Also GERS only covers public sector revenue and expenditure - not the whole of the Scottish economy. AND CERTAINLY NOT WHAT AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND WOULD LOOK LIKE !! It does look challenging but it's well within the means of an Independent Scotland to manage.

[stewarty27]

PS and indeed prosper

[ragnarok]

It's only been two years since the last referendum, but the arguments have already changed pretty substantially. The political case for independence has become much stronger, not only because of Brexit, but because of the general deterioration of the UK's party system into one electorally successful (but horrific anti-immigrant and populist) party in the shape of the Tories, and a load of completely unelectable parties that can't provide credible opposition.

What on earth makes you think that the Tories are anti-immigrant/populist? Establishment, neo-liberal, globalist (the 'modernising' wing of the party at least) perhaps. You don't honestly think that most Tories want to cut the level of cheap labour from overseas? Complete fantasy.

It may have escaped your notice but that the EU Referendum would not have been won by Leave without the votes of a significant number of voters who would be classified as Labour's core demographic. But the standard response is to condescendingly claim to 'understand their concerns' while simultaneously dismissing them as ill informed, stupid and racist. Yep, that's going to win voters back to the left.

That's why Corbyn and co are failing miserably in the polls and why they will probably be obliterated at the next election.

[stewarty27]

What on earth makes you think that the Tories are anti-immigrant/populist? Establishment, neo-liberal, globalist (the 'modernising' wing of the party at least) perhaps. You don't honestly think that most Tories want to cut the level of cheap labour from overseas? Complete fantasy.

It may have escaped your notice but that the EU Referendum would not have been won by Leave without the votes of a significant number of voters who would be classified as Labour's core demographic. But the standard response is to condescendingly claim to 'understand their concerns' while simultaneously dismissing them as ill informed, stupid and racist. Yep, that's going to win voters back to the left.

That's why Corbyn and co are failing miserably in the polls and why they will probably be obliterated at the next election.

The above is the perfect reason we should be seeking Independence sooner rather than later.Tory financiers are already rubbing their hands in glee at the big bucks the unregulated market will bring Without EU standards and protocols, the bankers and the Tories can change the rules on your pension, Smashing the welfare completely and privatization of everything starting with the NHS !!. The point made about the traditional Labour voter in England is valid. Seem they have ignored the massive impact of austerity politics and jumped on the MSM bandwagon of blaming immigration for all their ills. Scotland is now trapped within the age of the "Little Englander" there really is only one choice we can make now.

[leontrotsky]

[sancho_panza]

What on earth makes you think that the Tories are anti-immigrant/populist? Establishment, neo-liberal, globalist (the 'modernising' wing of the party at least) perhaps. You don't honestly think that most Tories want to cut the level of cheap labour from overseas? Complete fantasy.

It may have escaped your notice but that the EU Referendum would not have been won by Leave without the votes of a significant number of voters who would be classified as Labour's core demographic. But the standard response is to condescendingly claim to 'understand their concerns' while simultaneously dismissing them as ill informed, stupid and racist. Yep, that's going to win voters back to the left.

That's why Corbyn and co are failing miserably in the polls and why they will probably be obliterated at the next election.

What makes me think the Tories are anti-immigrant and populist? Statements like the one that this thread is about for a start. They've clearly completely misread the referendum result and are now tripping over themselves to try and appear tough on immigration even if it spooks the markets and promotes a backlash. Rudd's statement (which she's now hastily backtracking from) was the epitome of anti-immigration populism - an unworkable and largely pointless idea designed to play well with the Daily Express.

The second half of your post is the typical railing against a straw man. Nobody said anything about racism, the working classes being stupid, or any of the other usual folktales.

[leontrotsky]

What on earth makes you think that the Tories are anti-immigrant/populist?.

em.............to grab the UKIP vote........