OT - Salisbury Poisoning

[Romanis]

It's all political posturing. The chemical in question WAS developed by Russia. They claimed, quite a while back, that they had destroyed all stockpiles. Has someone else developed it too. The UK maybe? Stranger things have happened.

Putin has said "it wasn't me". Show me the proof and we can talk.

After the Iraq WMD claim, I am not surprised he's saying "where's the beef?".

It might be possible to prove that the nerve agent was made in Russia. If we do that then Putin will talk. Putin is using international agreements, signed by the UK, to ask for a portion of the nerve agent found so that they can study/investigate it. Not an unreasonable stance.

The ultimatum ran out 7 hours ago. I have not yet seen the News today so have no idea what Mayhem or the Russians have done so far.

Of one thing I am 100% certain. All this posturing is NOT being done for the benefit of the "ordinary Joe".

I agree. However Putin has very strong card to play. The chemical cannot be specifically proven to be Russian as it was developed back in the old Soviet Union. Of course everyone knows it's the Ruskies but as his EU Ambassador said yesterday, this was made in the Soviet Union, with 16 republics, now independent nations.
How sure can the UK prove that it was Russian, not Georgian, Kazakhstan or any other former Soviet republic. As far s Russia is concerned, 'they have destroyed all chemical weapons' to comply as a member of the organisation that deals with chemical weapons.

So whatever proof the UK has is purely conjecture. That's the Russian stance. Ms May will apparently chair an NSC meeting today and announce some form of sanctions. Which in reality won't mean much, a few embassy staff made persona non grata, some banning of Russian imports and probably banning Russian media outlets in the UK. Which of course the Russians will respond in kind and probably will see the BBC banned in Russia.
Perhaps threatening to give Putin fellatio when they next meet, would be a more terrifying sanction.

Meanwhile another Russian ex-agent who fled the country (former Aeroflot director) was found dead.
The simple fact of the matter is that Putin had long ago declared any Russian who tries to expose them will be branded a traitor and deserves to die like a dog.
And there's nothing anybody can do about it. Unless the UK decides to nuke Russia. The 20 or so nuclear missiles they have ready at any 1 time could well inflict severe damage on Russia, but fail to destroy it. The Russians of course would respond with their nuclear arsenal which would make the whole Britain a desert island.

The best possible response from the UK I think should be to make the obligatory complaints and strongly worded condemnation, some token sanctions and then wait for the matter to die down. It would in the UK's better interests to engage Russia economically now that Brexit is gonna occur. Russia has resources, Britain needs trade partners and investment, while Russia needs an avenue in the West to sell their goods through.

Simply put, if the Americans can do diiddly squat after it was proven that they interfered in their elections, invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea and attacks Ukraine by proxy, what the feck can the UK do? They can bully smaller boys like Libya, send troops to Iraq and Afghanistan and probably teach some puny nations like Argentina a lesson. That's where they can play 'big fish', however when a whale like Russia tumbles into their path, the only thing they can and should do, is get the hell out of the way.

[ramAnag]

Beware of lame dog politicians seeking to restore their credibility by talking tough. As has been said above...there will never be a good time to fall out with Russia and given everything else that’s going on now is most certainly not the time.

[swaledale]

I agree. However Putin has very strong card to play. The chemical cannot be specifically proven to be Russian as it was developed back in the old Soviet Union. Of course everyone knows it's the Ruskies but as his EU Ambassador said yesterday, this was made in the Soviet Union, with 16 republics, now independent nations.
How sure can the UK prove that it was Russian, not Georgian, Kazakhstan or any other former Soviet republic. As far s Russia is concerned, 'they have destroyed all chemical weapons' to comply as a member of the organisation that deals with chemical weapons.

So whatever proof the UK has is purely conjecture. That's the Russian stance. Ms May will apparently chair an NSC meeting today and announce some form of sanctions. Which in reality won't mean much, a few embassy staff made persona non grata, some banning of Russian imports and probably banning Russian media outlets in the UK. Which of course the Russians will respond in kind and probably will see the BBC banned in Russia.
Perhaps threatening to give Putin fellatio when they next meet, would be a more terrifying sanction.

Meanwhile another Russian ex-agent who fled the country (former Aeroflot director) was found dead.
The simple fact of the matter is that Putin had long ago declared any Russian who tries to expose them will be branded a traitor and deserves to die like a dog.
And there's nothing anybody can do about it. Unless the UK decides to nuke Russia. The 20 or so nuclear missiles they have ready at any 1 time could well inflict severe damage on Russia, but fail to destroy it. The Russians of course would respond with their nuclear arsenal which would make the whole Britain a desert island.

The best possible response from the UK I think should be to make the obligatory complaints and strongly worded condemnation, some token sanctions and then wait for the matter to die down. It would in the UK's better interests to engage Russia economically now that Brexit is gonna occur. Russia has resources, Britain needs trade partners and investment, while Russia needs an avenue in the West to sell their goods through.

Simply put, if the Americans can do diiddly squat after it was proven that they interfered in their elections, invaded Georgia, annexed Crimea and attacks Ukraine by proxy, what the feck can the UK do? They can bully smaller boys like Libya, send troops to Iraq and Afghanistan and probably teach some puny nations like Argentina a lesson. That's where they can play 'big fish', however when a whale like Russia tumbles into their path, the only thing they can and should do, is get the hell out of the way.

Sorry how does everyone know its Russia. The only facts so far are that the nerve agent was of soviet union origin even those people who are supposedly experts in this sort of thing are saying that its unlikley the Russian state as the guy would be of no interest to them and liquidating an ex spy who had been exchanged would be counter productive.

Given how governments of either labour or conservative seemed to be easily persuaded by dodgy dossiers and falsehoods to wage war in iraq and try and wage war in Libya, I'd say that Corbyn's stance, in saying lets not jump to conclusions, lets work with international law and establish the facts was the more sensible and statesman like, but hey ho its seems people have very short memories and happy to accept assumptions. Not IMO a very sensible move at all.

[Andy_Faber]

Sorry how does everyone know its Russia. The only facts so far are that the nerve agent was of soviet union origin even those people who are supposedly experts in this sort of thing are saying that its unlikley the Russian state as the guy would be of no interest to them and liquidating an ex spy who had been exchanged would be counter productive.

Given how governments of either labour or conservative seemed to be easily persuaded by dodgy dossiers and falsehoods to wage war in iraq and try and wage war in Libya, I'd say that Corbyn's stance, in saying lets not jump to conclusions, lets work with international law and establish the facts was the more sensible and statesman like, but hey ho its seems people have very short memories and happy to accept assumptions. Not IMO a very sensible move at all.

...although very popular/'populist', in my travels round Europe, Russians and the Russian state are reviled by almost everyone who cares to offer an opinion - they even manage to rack off the beautiful Greeks. UK won't come out of this the winner, but sometimes making a stand is more important than the outcome

[ramAnag]

...although very popular/'populist', in my travels round Europe, Russians and the Russian state are reviled by almost everyone who cares to offer an opinion - they even manage to rack off the beautiful Greeks. UK won't come out of this the winner, but sometimes making a stand is more important than the outcome

But, as Swale has correctly pointed out, it’s always a good idea to have some evidence of what or who you are actually ‘making a stand’ against or...bit like Brexit...in support of.
For me those little matters of detail, evidence and informed opinion are quite crucial before offering support to any ‘theory’.

[Trickytreesreds]

But, as Swale has correctly pointed out, it’s always a good idea to have some evidence of what or who you are actually ‘making a stand’ against or...bit like Brexit...in support of.
For me those little matters of detail, evidence and informed opinion are quite crucial before offering support to any ‘theory’.

Mmmmmmmmmmm, how much do you trust Putin?

Airliner downed in the Ukraine. "It isn't us scream the Russians"
Pictures appear on facebook of rebels showing off their new Russian high tech AAM battery
Russia releases a photoshopped picture of a Ukrainian military jet shooting down the airliner.
"IT WASN'T US THEY SCREAM" as a satellite picture of said, AAM shown crawling back over the border.

Russian athletes caught cheating by doping. "It isn't true scream the Russians" , Blaming Russianophobia.
It's then found the Federal Security Services has instructed doping tests to be altered and no co operation with the Olympic committee.

Alexander Litvinenko was a former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FS and KGB, who fled from court prosecution in Russia and received political asylum in the United Kingdom.

On 1 November 2006, Litvinenko suddenly fell ill and was hospitalized. He died three weeks later, becoming the first confirmed victim of lethal polonium-210-induced acute radiation syndrome. Litvinenko's allegations about the misdeeds of the FSB and his public deathbed accusations that Russian president Vladimir Putin was behind his unusual malady resulted in worldwide media coverage.

Subsequent investigations by British authorities into the circumstances of Litvinenko's death led to serious diplomatic difficulties between the British and Russian governments. During the 2014–2015 trial the Scotland Yard representative witnessed that "the evidence suggests that the only credible explanation is in one way or another the Russian state is involved in Litvinenko's murder". Another witness stated that Dmitry Kovtun had been speaking openly about the plan to kill Litvinenko that was intended to "set an example" as a punishment for a "traitor". The main suspect in the case, a former officer of the Russian Federal Protective Service (FSO), Andrey Lugovoy, remains in Russia.

Of course the butler could have done it, in the library

[swaledale]

Mmmmmmmmmmm, how much do you trust Putin?

Airliner downed in the Ukraine. "It isn't us scream the Russians"
Pictures appear on facebook of rebels showing off their new Russian high tech AAM battery
Russia releases a photoshopped picture of a Ukrainian military jet shooting down the airliner.
"IT WASN'T US THEY SCREAM" as a satellite picture of said, AAM shown crawling back over the border.

Russian athletes caught cheating by doping. "It isn't true scream the Russians" , Blaming Russianophobia.
It's then found the Federal Security Services has instructed doping tests to be altered and no co operation with the Olympic committee.

Alexander Litvinenko was a former officer of the Russian Federal Security Service (FS and KGB, who fled from court prosecution in Russia and received political asylum in the United Kingdom.

On 1 November 2006, Litvinenko suddenly fell ill and was hospitalized. He died three weeks later, becoming the first confirmed victim of lethal polonium-210-induced acute radiation syndrome. Litvinenko's allegations about the misdeeds of the FSB and his public deathbed accusations that Russian president Vladimir Putin was behind his unusual malady resulted in worldwide media coverage.

Subsequent investigations by British authorities into the circumstances of Litvinenko's death led to serious diplomatic difficulties between the British and Russian governments. During the 2014–2015 trial the Scotland Yard representative witnessed that "the evidence suggests that the only credible explanation is in one way or another the Russian state is involved in Litvinenko's murder". Another witness stated that Dmitry Kovtun had been speaking openly about the plan to kill Litvinenko that was intended to "set an example" as a punishment for a "traitor". The main suspect in the case, a former officer of the Russian Federal Protective Service (FSO), Andrey Lugovoy, remains in Russia.

Of course the butler could have done it, in the library

But this is not Litvinenko and to jump to unverified conclusions is not only dangerous but not good politics.

The government has never said the nerve agent was made in Russia, or that it can only be made in Russia. The exact formulation “of a type developed by Russia” was used by Theresa May in parliament, used by the UK at the UN Security Council, used by Boris Johnson on the BBC yesterday and, most tellingly of all, “of a type developed by Russia” is the precise phrase used in the joint communique issued by the UK, USA, France and Germany yesterday:

This use of a military-grade nerve agent, of a type developed by Russia, constitutes the first offensive use of a nerve agent in Europe since the Second World War.

When the same extremely careful phrasing is never deviated from, you know it is the result of a very delicate Whitehall compromise.

Beware of the political expediency here and just because Russia often acts in a way not always conducive to world harmony does not mean they are responsible for this, no matter how convenient a scapegoat they are.

[Andy_Faber]

But, as Swale has correctly pointed out, it’s always a good idea to have some evidence of what or who you are actually ‘making a stand’ against or...bit like Brexit...in support of.
For me those little matters of detail, evidence and informed opinion are quite crucial before offering support to any ‘theory’.

Sometimes you just have to go with gut feel RA. Using a very local and very recent analogy, and without being remotely racist, when there are 'travellers' in the area offering to do tree work at discounted rates, and my way down Gypsy (sic) Lane is blocked by a lorryload of fly-tipped conifer cuttings, I didn't see who it was but I know who it was

[ramAnag]

Sometimes you just have to go with gut feel RA. Using a very local and very recent analogy, and without being remotely racist, when there are 'travellers' in the area offering to do tree work at discounted rates, and my way down Gypsy (sic) Lane is blocked by a lorryload of fly-tipped conifer cuttings, I didn't see who it was but I know who it was

But that does constitute ‘evidence’, Andy...you did see conifers being pruned back followed by a lot of conifer cuttings dumped nearby. Not ‘concrete’ maybe but certainly evidence of a sort.
This is politics and also next door, as MA pointed out, to Porton Down...there might be all sorts going on and personally I wouldn’t trust any of the b*****s but, imo - and again I’m no great fan - Corbyn’s response seemed quite sensible to me and much more appropriate than May’s over excited one.

[roger_ramjet]

This is not unlike the extreme coincidences that used to take place when I was a kid - large piles of council owned asphalt planned for use in road repairs would go missing and shortly afterwards we would get a knock on the door from the TGBs wondering if we would like them to tarmac a drive. No proof of connection, but if it looks like a poo and smells like a poo, it usually is a poo.

It does all seem like a bit of a storm in a teacup however, and personally I don't really care if the Russians did take care of a couple of their own.