The Loss of Normality

[1959_60]

My take, BT, is a little different.

Small business is the greatest employer of people.

Many businesses were doing it tough before the "Coronation Virus" and wont reopen their doors.

Result is higher unemployment.

Governments have borrowed trillions to starve of the effects of the virus and that money has to be paid back.

Less employed people throw more financial demands on the Government whilst severely reducing the tax income they would normally receive.

Result? A "temporary tax on those employed called the coronavirus tax. Which will further empty pockets.

Even those at work will hold onto their money and there will be a lessening of demand for goods.

Recession is absolutely inevitable.

Back to the Great Depression.

Loss of freedom is way down the list of priorities.

Survival is the only objective.

A bit of a doomsday scenario there blueheeler?

Practically every country will be in the same boat, and it looks like the vast majority of our decent companies will be ready to get going again as soon as they are able.

I reckon things will return to normal a lot quicker than you think.

[blueheeler1]

A bit of a doomsday scenario there blueheeler?

Practically every country will be in the same boat, and it looks like the vast majority of our decent companies will be ready to get going again as soon as they are able.

I reckon things will return to normal a lot quicker than you think.

I'd like to think so.

The great issue is the timing if getting back to normality.

If we are in this virus epidemic for no longer than another 6-8 weeks, it seems a reasonable guess that recovery will be hard but possible.

Longer than that and we have the accumulated effect of Banks and Utilities not getting paid; Store leases not being paid; etc,etc.

There has, anyway, been a massive shift to online purchasing over the last few years and in this scenario its likely to increase (assuming parcel delivery continues).

That's why I feel for all those shops with massive overheads and reducing turnover.

They would have closed anyway.

This situation just hurries it along.

And with it the unemployment continues upwards.

[sinkov]

A bit of a doomsday scenario there blueheeler?

Practically every country will be in the same boat, and it looks like the vast majority of our decent companies will be ready to get going again as soon as they are able.

I reckon things will return to normal a lot quicker than you think.

Tend to agree with Blue more than you 59, this is bad and economically potentially catastrophic, Blue mentions the Great Depression, if it only gets as bad as that we'll have got off lightly imo, it could well be a lot worse.

[1959_60]

Tend to agree with Blue more than you 59, this is bad and economically potentially catastrophic, Blue mentions the Great Depression, if it only gets as bad as that we'll have got off lightly imo, it could well be a lot worse.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out in China now that restrictions are being lifted.

If the bleeding bug doesn't come back with a vengeance then it looks like 3 months is what it takes. So in that case we should start to get some normality back in June. Anything much longer than that will not be good. But our economy did survive the 1939-45 war, so a three month partial shutdown should be OK.

[sinkov]

It will be interesting to see how things pan out in China now that restrictions are being lifted.

If the bleeding bug doesn't come back with a vengeance then it looks like 3 months is what it takes. So in that case we should start to get some normality back in June. Anything much longer than that will not be good. But our economy did survive the 1939-45 war, so a three month partial shutdown should be OK.

Yes we survived the war 59, and we'll survive this, but during the war the economy didn't shut down, it went into overdrive. I cannot see a happy outcome for the economy, it'll be many years before we're back to where we are now. I'm glad I'm retired and well out of it.