O/T Prince Charles Tests Positive

[Geoff Parkstone]

If you are telling me that the government are wilfully acting against expert advice given, I will accept your point. Be interesting to see evidence of that! But bear in mind there are probably 20 different experts giving different advise as well.

We probably cant get testing kits because Germany and Korea have bought them all up! Naturally countries stricken before us will have blocked the supply chain before we got round to it. And please dont tell me that we should have ordered loads of them before we had incidences of COVID in priority to those countries who had already victims in the early months. That would be just the same as the bogroll hoarders!

As for my last sentence, I refer to the assumption that some have that once the lockdown is finished and COVID is in retreat then everything will be OK. We will be facing a world where many small businesses have been decimated and thus a growing list of people on benefits for more than just the few months of lockdown. And not just small businesses, certain industries will have been hammered, the most obvious example being airlines. Where most countries will have vastly increased national debt to service. Where most people will be facing an inflationary environment. Where taxes, direct and indirect, will need to go up and austerity will be forced upon us again.

The good thing however is that our carbon footprint will look better and global warming may cool momentarily!

[swaledale]

Well, there we must differ.

I would contend that whoever was leader would have received the same advice from the same experts who are effectively the invisible people who are running the anti Corona "battle campaign". Its not the titular head that makes decisions, he just announces them.

As you like world war 2 analogies you might just as well hold Churchill personally responsible for Dunkirk or Arnhem, when in reality it was behind the scenes armed forces personnel that planned that campaign

I get that BJ is not a "man for the people" and commands little respect from many of the electorate, but what is to be gained by criticising the mouth, when its the brain that may have made the mistakes. We all know BJ in not the brain, but the mouth. I would contend that criticism should be laid at the feet of the civil service: but equally commendation should belong there too, not with BJ, if the virus is defeated - I'd like to think he would attribute the praise to the backroom, rather than take it for himself, but I suspect we all accept that he won't!.

Your missing the points I made about - he and his team of cronies listened to advice which supposedly was influenced by Cummins and the experts on public health were sidelined and ignored in favour of nudge and mathematicalmodelling.

Yes a leader delegates or acts upon advice from backroom experts - or ignores it and is rightly judged as to how he or she performs, to excuse the basic errors because Johnson hasn't the grasp of reality or detail is beyond comprehension as its those very characteristics which we should value in a leader.

But more than that, as a leader one should at least give the impression that one is in control, something that is obviously lacking with Johnson and his fellow ministers who contradict themselves on the numbers of tests, the strategy and even the lock down rules each day - if its beyond the wit to even appear coordinated and effective then I'm not sure why your so forgiving.

You also conveniently ignore that the current bunch of politicians in charge were involved or in parliament when the Government chose to ignore the experts report on what was needed to enable the NHS to cope with a pandemic.

As for having test kits, ventilators and protective equipment the fact that decisions werent taken early on, you seem to imply isn't Johnson and his colleagues fault because they werent told.

Again a competent or even half competent leader would assess or be able to assess the situation for his or herself and ask the appropriate questions, such as what is happening in China, South Korea, Italy etc and what steps are they taking and why is our approach different?

The Civil Service in this case is largely administrative, so aren't either the villans or heros here, we are talking about the basing of a strategy on people who are not experts in public health, who are scientists and practitioners with experience in outbreaks of this kind internationally and nationally who it seems had been ignored in favour of Cummins and other special advisors, it doesn't take a genius to understand who to listen to, even if you don't necessarily implement their advice to the full extent.

Still you vote in a chimp and hey take the consequences!

Your analogy to Churchill and the does not really hold - for one it isn't as if the information wasn't out there, the government had a minimum of 2 months to learn from what as happening elsewhere.

Secondly yes the generals etc. will have planned the individual campaigns, BUT there is considerable political influence, which may and often does affect what happens and where. At least Churchill for all his faults was a credible leader in a crisis.

But there is an important principle here, the buck stops with the person in charge, whether that be a company or a country thats what leadership means, if you want power, you have to accept the responsibilities.

[MadAmster]

OK Jezzer!

Not planning to fall out over it, but I feel we need to praise the positives and accept that noone is going to get it right first time on some of the things more medical. Its not like they have a model to follow: its all, to use a well overused expression - unprecedented. So perhaps Korea and Germany were better positioned to respond, but who was to know that at the time that their chosen response was to prove more effective. Wisdom after the event is a sort of wisdom much to be despised.

To somehow make it Boris' fault, or those of the current Tory leadership, is disingenuous in the least. Do you really think BJ and the others personally had a clue how to respond? Only been in office a few months, or in the CoE's case, a few days. This strategy was developed by the backroom teams and announced by the political figures. Dont let your own partisanship colour your reaction to something that they just announced. I know we live in a world of celebrities, but its the backroom that work it out.

Governments can only base advice to the public and responses on the advice that they receive from the experts. That expert advice would doubtless have been just the same whichever politician "fronted the announcements" be they blue, red, or, as unlikely as it seems, yellow..

I could sit and pick holes in the details of the financial reliefs for businesses until the cows come home, should I want to, but overall they seem fair and proportionate. So why bother getting aerated.

Its best to see the bigger picture - I'm already more worried about tomorrow's recovery post lockdown than I am about today.

They started taking measures mid January. They saw what was happening in China and, using the experience gained in the SARS outbreak, they got it right. Not guesswork but based on previous. Germany did the same. The big question being, why didn't Johnson look at Korea's success and look at what China did, basically cutting Hubei province of from the outside world which meant comparatively few cases in places like Shanghai and Beijing? Two success stories that could/should have been followed. But no, President Cummings said the experts, the facts, were wrong and he pushed the country down the herd immunity road. Then BJ went to a hospital containing COVID patients, next day he's bragging he shook hands with everybody and would continue to do so. Damned reckless behaviour. As I said before, they got the economic measures right but the way to handle the contagion has beenn utterly messed up.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...sures-covid-19

[Trickytreesreds]

The one thing about all this that makes me laugh, is that this is the "current" biggest decision in our lifetime.

We've just had
1. Brexit vote
2. General election
3. Corona

All will have been dramatic calamities, which will destroy our childrens lives and grand childrens lives.
Roll on a Martian invasion, then we can top it.
Unless Corbyn makes a last minute surge I suppose.

In other news, I won 2 lucky dips for Fridays lottery.

[ramAnag]

They started taking measures mid January. They saw what was happening in China and, using the experience gained in the SARS outbreak, they got it right. Not guesswork but based on previous. Germany did the same. The big question being, why didn't Johnson look at Korea's success and look at what China did, basically cutting Hubei province of from the outside world which meant comparatively few cases in places like Shanghai and Beijing? Two success stories that could/should have been followed. But no, President Cummings said the experts, the facts, were wrong and he pushed the country down the herd immunity road. Then BJ went to a hospital containing COVID patients, next day he's bragging he shook hands with everybody and would continue to do so. Damned reckless behaviour. As I said before, they got the economic measures right but the way to handle the contagion has beenn utterly messed up.


https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...sures-covid-19

Good article ‘Amster. I recommend that GP reads the linked one by Richard Horton too.

Genuinely shocked by his reaction today. There comes a time when criticism is necessary and justified, not simply negative.

[ramAnag]

We probably cant get testing kits because Germany and Korea have bought them all up! Naturally countries stricken before us will have blocked the supply chain before we got round to it. And please dont tell me that we should have ordered loads of them before we had incidences of COVID in priority to those countries who had already victims in the early months. That would be just the same as the bogroll hoarders!

As for my last sentence, I refer to the assumption that some have that once the lockdown is finished and COVID is in retreat then everything will be OK. We will be facing a world where many small businesses have been decimated and thus a growing list of people on benefits for more than just the few months of lockdown. And not just small businesses, certain industries will have been hammered, the most obvious example being airlines. Where most countries will have vastly increased national debt to service. Where most people will be facing an inflationary environment. Where taxes, direct and indirect, will need to go up and austerity will be forced upon us again.

Okay...you make a reasonable point about Korea...but Germany?

Covid-19 arrived in southern Germany almost exactly a month before the first UK case and yet two months on the Germans are somehow managing 50,000 tests per day while we are conducting about 7,500 per day. There really is no excuse for that and imo Johnson lied tonight.
He said in a brief video interview that ‘testing offered the best route out of this as he’d been saying for months’. Imo that is a barefaced lie, but because the PM says it on camera he gets away with it. Do you honestly think he’s been advocating that approach for months? Y/N.

I understand your concerns about our economic future and thought that might be what you meant. The implications are going to be massive and will reverberate around for many years/decades to come. Will ‘austerity be forced on us again’? I imagine so...but then for some it’s never really gone away has it?
What, imo, we can’t afford to do is to try and set the nation back to work before we are truly on top of this virus. That is undoubtedly what Trump had in mind with his infantile comments about it all being ‘done by Easter’ but all it will achieve is setting us back to square one.

Maybe you think that’s all ‘negative’. Possibly it is...sadly it’s also the likely truth.

[Geoff Parkstone]

No I agree with all that latter negativity. It will have to be a slow return to normalcy on tippy toes, otherwise Corona 2 will arrive seeking revenge for Roy Scheider having blown up its predecessor. The lick down is just the beginning of the pain

[Geoff Parkstone]

You know what, I don't care if he lied. If Churchill, a well known manipulator of the truth in the early days of WW2, could lie to shield the people from the realities of early wartime setbacks, so can BJ. There are times that panic management needs deception and reassurances.

There will be plenty of time to rake over what we could have done better, and learn lessons, once we are past "the darkest hour". This really is a war, and sometimes the truth gets inconveniently in the way. So throw a bag over it.

When Tricky's Martians turn up, are you going to be out there telling them all our weak spots??

[ramAnag]

You know what, I don't care if he lied. If Churchill, a well known manipulator of the truth in the early days of WW2, could lie to shield the people from the realities of early wartime setbacks, so can BJ. There are times that panic management needs deception and reassurances.

There will be plenty of time to rake over what we could have done better, and learn lessons, once we are past "the darkest hour". This really is a war, and sometimes the truth gets inconveniently in the way. So throw a bag over it.

When Tricky's Martians turn up, are you going to be out there telling them all our weak spots??

I think you’ve lost the plot a little today, GP. Not like you.

This isn’t ‘a war’ at all, although for some reason a number of people seem to be trying to conjure up something of the partially mythical wartime spirit.

It’s a battle against a common enemy that will be won by countries working together and politicians putting their egos to one side and following the advice of those who are more expert.

Yes, I agree that Churchill manipulated the truth during WWII, but that was approaching eighty years ago. Times have changed. Opinions are no longer formed by day old newsprint and the facts/lies (delete as appropriate) spouted by politicians are infinitely more check able. Also, unless we’ve vastly underestimated the Covid-19 virus, there is no requirement for secrecy. In this instance neither walls, nor viruses, ‘have ears’.

You still haven’t answered that question...just said you ‘don’t care’.

The truth is I suspect, that during his enforced (?) absence, Johnson has, like Trump, recognised his initial error - the herd immunity strategy - and decided to change tack. The next stage is the blatant lie...the ‘as I’ve been suggesting for weeks’ one in this case.
He hasn’t at all and neither has his Government but if you want to believe that ‘the truth inconveniently gets in the way’ in a ‘battle’ against a virus that’s up to you. I don’t...and although I genuinely wish I believed otherwise...I just think he’s living up to his reputation as an inveterate liar.

[Trickytreesreds]

Okay...you make a reasonable point about Korea...but Germany?

Covid-19 arrived in southern Germany almost exactly a month before the first UK case and yet two months on the Germans are somehow managing 50,000 tests per day while we are conducting about 7,500 per day. There really is no excuse for that and imo Johnson lied tonight.
He said in a brief video interview that ‘testing offered the best route out of this as he’d been saying for months’. Imo that is a barefaced lie, but because the PM says it on camera he gets away with it. Do you honestly think he’s been advocating that approach for months? Y/N.

I understand your concerns about our economic future and thought that might be what you meant. The implications are going to be massive and will reverberate around for many years/decades to come. Will ‘austerity be forced on us again’? I imagine so...but then for some it’s never really gone away has it?
What, imo, we can’t afford to do is to try and set the nation back to work before we are truly on top of this virus. That is undoubtedly what Trump had in mind with his infantile comments about it all being ‘done by Easter’ but all it will achieve is setting us back to square one.

Maybe you think that’s all ‘negative’. Possibly it is...sadly it’s also the likely truth.

RA, where as I agree with you about the lack of kits making me angry.
In line with what you said about , "all pulling togther" doesn't seem to be the norm.
There is a definite attempt to discredit both Johnson and the government by the left.
Now is not the time for that, but it doesn't seem to stop them.

The lack of kits may be down to some lack of vision by the governemnt, but there is other reasons, that certain folk don't want mentioned.
Here read this. I didn't write it, but the quotes explain a lot.
On Tuesday evening, ITV Political Editor Robert Peston made extraordinary and widely shared claims that “there is no shortage of the relevant reagents” – implying that the Government was either lying or simply hadn’t bothered to ask around. His tweet has attracted over 14,000 retweets and 20,000 likes.

His single anonymous Chemical Industries Association source could be right. On the other hand, Guido has pulled together some other people who might just know what they are talking about:

Professional Association of Laboratory Medics, Germany: “The association is worried that the materials required for testing — sample kits, materials for extracting samples, and reagents — are becoming scarce”
Department of Health, Australia: “Due to global demand exceeding supply, stocks of all laboratory related testing consumables are under considerable strain. At the moment there are particular concerns around supplies of swabs and DNA extraction kits.”
Centre for Disease Control, United States: Important reagents are “now are in short supply,”
Leo Varadkar, Ireland: “The current cause of delay is a shortage of reagents. We hope to address that but then there may be a shortage of something else. We have to be honest about that – we will hit delays.”
Chief Public Health Officer, Province of Manitoba, Canada: “Right now the major ro******* is the reagent and that is worldwide.”
Center for Disease Control and Prevention, South Korea: “Kwon Jun-wook, deputy director of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said … it was true that Roche Diagnostics’ supply of reagents for nucleic acid extraction was not stable.”
Health Ministry, Israel: Deputy Director General Prof. Itamar Grotto said that “Unfortunately what we just received is not exactly what we needed. The test is comprised of many components and the main problem is that we are missing swabs.”
National Public Health Surveillance Laboratory, Lithuania: “The reagent kits have been shipped out but have not yet arrived. Supply chains are breaking down. We are following the situation and trying to coordinate.”
Metropolis Health Ltd, (registered lab offering tests) India: “Since resources are limited, including protection equipment for sample collectors and reagents, we have decided to prioritise testing to those who are most at need.”
Virology Laboratory at Italy’s National Institute for Infectious Diseases, European Commission Coronavirus Advisory Group: “major companies that provide the reagents that labs need to analyze tests are reaching “the maximum of their capacity,” said Capobianchi, noting there’s also a need for more swabs for collecting samples. “I don’t know how long they would require to scale up their capacity,” she said of reagent producers.”
Whilst he later acknowledged that there was a global problem, Peston has still not deleted the original thread. Inevitably his later correction only got a tiny bit of attention, with fraction of the interaction.

Guido understands that the predominant reason Germany has a much higher testing rate is fortunately for them the specific diagnostics facilities needed to test for Covid-19 have a large number of branches in Germany, meaning domestic production just happened to be enormous to begin with. The UK will at least be very well served if any future pandemic requires a large supply of snide punditry…

Last night Peston had to be corrected again by Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jonathan Van Tam on his understanding of which tests can do what, this morning Peston tweets that he “was slightly taken aback at the ferocity of the Deputy Chief Medical Officer’s response”. Painful viewing, see for yourself…



https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...ture=emb_title