Andrew Wilson - Economic advisor to Nicola Sturgeon

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As with any transition, an unspecified and unpredictable time frame would be needed to realise any projections.

One of my biggest beefs about the whole Covid thing is governments taking the word of so called experts that present ridiculous worst case scenarios where half a million people will die and 50% of the population will get ill in six months.

Same with any predictions post independence, depending on your viewpoint Scotland would be affluent in a generation (whatever time that is) or would crash and burn in the same time frame. As with Covid the reality will be somewhere in the middle and, if we're being realistic, the result is highly likely to be more toward the positive side in the time frame quoted than the negative.

A newly independent Scotland which has previously become very dependent on a block grant from the Westminster Government does not have time to aspire to become an affluent country. It has to hit the ground running.
If the electorate in Scotland vote in favour of Scotland leaving the UK and becoming an independent country there is no going back after five years because the pro independence supporters project has proved to be a disaster.
A number of people on Islay have complained for years that Islay is the wealthiest island in the world because of the amount of taxation that leaves the island due to the production of whisky.
This is another myth. The duty is only paid when the whisky leaves the bonded warehouses and most of the whisky produced on Islay is transported by road tanker to bonded warehouses in Central Scotland.
On this basis the area near Alloa is the wealthiest part of Scotland.
You may remember me posting on here that after I received details of my Covid-19 test being negative from the Public Health Scotland doctor I had a short discussion with her where she admitted that they expected 7% of the population to contract coronavirus.
That means that 93% of the population are not expected to contract coronavirus but hundreds of thousands of the them could lose their job over the policy decisions taken by the health experts and politicians.
The incompetence regarding this pandemic started at the end of January 2020.
I have a relative whose next door neighbour returned from a skiing holiday in Northern Italy. The Covid-19 virus at that time was rife in Northern Italy yet when this person flew back to the UK on arrival they were handed a sheet of paper about coronavirus but at no time were they advised to self isolate. After flying back to Scotland the same thing happened. They were handed a sheet of paper but no instructions to self isolate.
My relative’s neighbour self isolated because this person works in the health service and knew what to do.
Yet again another case of ‘shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted’.
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A newly independent Scotland which has previously become very dependent on a block grant from the Westminster Government does not have time to aspire to become an affluent country. It has to hit the ground running.

That's worst case Islay.

Yes, the block grant from Westminster would eventually stop but then the outflow of cash from Scotland to Westminster, which contributes significantly to the block grant, would also stop so the net loss is not the total of any block grant and it's wrong to say the its value would suddenly disappear.

There are figures out there which differ depending on which side produced them, personally I'm not an economist and don't know who to believe. My inclination toward independence is based mainly on what I see as centuries of oppression and I'm confident that those with the economic background would carry it off.

I recently lost a good friend who was a retired Professor of Economics at St. Andrews University. He was adamant that Scotland had nothing to worry about economically in the event of independence, indeed would most likely prosper after an initial short stagger whilst adapting. No offence to you or anyone else but I'll trust his judgement and opinion before I'll trust any spin doctor or politician with a personal or party agenda.

[noahrab]

That's worst case Islay.

Yes, the block grant from Westminster would eventually stop but then the outflow of cash from Scotland to Westminster, which contributes significantly to the block grant, would also stop so the net loss is not the total of any block grant and it's wrong to say the its value would suddenly disappear.

There are figures out there which differ depending on which side produced them, personally I'm not an economist and don't know who to believe. My inclination toward independence is based mainly on what I see as centuries of oppression and I'm confident that those with the economic background would carry it off.

I recently lost a good friend who was a retired Professor of Economics at St. Andrews University. He was adamant that Scotland had nothing to worry about economically in the event of independence, indeed would most likely prosper after an initial short stagger whilst adapting. No offence to you or anyone else but I'll trust his judgement and opinion before I'll trust any spin doctor or politician with a personal or party agenda.

Centuries of oppression

Dont forget they called you Jock, and you’ve hated them ever since.

[islaydarkblue]

That's worst case Islay.

Yes, the block grant from Westminster would eventually stop but then the outflow of cash from Scotland to Westminster, which contributes significantly to the block grant, would also stop so the net loss is not the total of any block grant and it's wrong to say the its value would suddenly disappear.


There are figures out there which differ depending on which side produced them, personally I'm not an economist and don't know who to believe. My inclination toward independence is based mainly on what I see as centuries of oppression and I'm confident that those with the economic background would carry it off.

I recently lost a good friend who was a retired Professor of Economics at St. Andrews University. He was adamant that Scotland had nothing to worry about economically in the event of independence, indeed would most likely prosper after an initial short stagger whilst adapting. No offence to you or anyone else but I'll trust his judgement and opinion before I'll trust any spin doctor or politician with a personal or party agenda.

Which money is being sent south of the border to England.
You will probably have read that the members of Shetlands Islands council have instigated steps to set up a referendum asking the people in Shetland whether they want the Shetland Isles to remain part of Scptland or leave whilst still remaining part of the rest of the UK. If that happens it is likely that the Orkney Islands will follow suit.
The Shetland residents are fed up that the SNP controlled Scottish Government are centralising everything in Edinburgh.
One of an independent Scotland’s main source of taxation from the import of oil would be gone for ever if the residents of Orkney and Shetland vote to leave Scotland.
When I was a pupil at Morgan Academy Senior Secondary School I had an economics teacher who used to teach us that every industry in the U.K. should be nationalised.
He should have taught us a balanced view not his own political views which were bordering on Communism.

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Which money is being sent south of the border to England.
You will probably have read that the members of Shetlands Islands council have instigated steps to set up a referendum asking the people in Shetland whether they want the Shetland Isles to remain part of Scptland or leave whilst still remaining part of the rest of the UK. If that happens it is likely that the Orkney Islands will follow suit.
The Shetland residents are fed up that the SNP controlled Scottish Government are centralising everything in Edinburgh.
One of an independent Scotland’s main source of taxation from the import of oil would be gone for ever if the residents of Orkney and Shetland vote to leave Scotland.
When I was a pupil at Morgan Academy Senior Secondary School I had an economics teacher who used to teach us that every industry in the U.K. should be nationalised.
He should have taught us a balanced view not his own political views which were bordering on Communism.

Taxes, NI. That's not just income tax and you need to consider VAT, Corporation Tax and Import / Export Tax and anything else currently paid to HMRC. As I've stated elsewhere the amount sent varies dependent on which side's analysis you read and the truth will be somewhere in the middle.

I have no issues with Shetlanders looking for 'independence' from Scotland, would be a cracking case study for Scotland, but to declare they are sick of the Scottish Government centralising everything in Edinburgh whilst looking to be governed by a London centric government seems a bit at odds with the whole concept.

[islaydarkblue]

Taxes, NI. That's not just income tax and you need to consider VAT, Corporation Tax and Import / Export Tax and anything else currently paid to HMRC. As I've stated elsewhere the amount sent varies dependent on which side's analysis you read and the truth will be somewhere in the middle.

I have no issues with Shetlanders looking for 'independence' from Scotland, would be a cracking case study for Scotland, but to declare they are sick of the Scottish Government centralising everything in Edinburgh whilst looking to be governed by a London centric government seems a bit at odds with the whole concept.

The members of the Shetland Isles council would govern their islands and they would have a similar arrangement with Westminster as the Faroe Isles have with Denmark.
Where do you think the money for the Barnett Formula comes from.
It does not come from the SNP ‘magic money tree’.