Magpie Circle Altrincham Preview

[LaxtonLad]

I base my fair score stats on the xG data I have available to me. The club will have much greater detail in their data than I do to deduce their fair score.

Essentially it’s a metric used to determine performance vs results and to identify where improvements can be made to make sure good performances are always rewarded.

I mentioned on the Notts County Talk pod that Neal Ardley actually recorded 7 points more than expected based on performances this season. That would suggest we overachieved in several games and that this is not actually sustainable.

If you look at Ian Burchnall’s first 8 games he’s recorded 7 points but performances actually suggest that should have been 15 points. He’s been let down by poor finishing, defensive mistakes and some fantastic saves by opposition goal keepers. The margins are so small which is why data plays such a big part in the modern game.

Very interesting, ncfcog. It may explain Burchinall insisting we dominated a game yet conceded two goals, following this line of reasoning it doesn't look as bad as it looks. Does it take into account individual talent or the performance of the team as a whole?

Would it be fair to say that he was unlucky in his eight games? If you would say that then he does deserve more time to settle, or perhaps luck doesn't come into it.

I wonder if these fair results would improve if teams were playing in front of a crowd?

[ncfcog]

Very interesting, ncfcog. It may explain Burchinall insisting we dominated a game yet conceded two goals, following this line of reasoning it doesn't look as bad as it looks. Does it take into account individual talent or the performance of the team as a whole?

Would it be fair to say that he was unlucky in his eight games? If you would say that then he does deserve more time to settle, or perhaps luck doesn't come into it.

I wonder if these fair results would improve if teams were playing in front of a crowd?

It certainly gives you a feel for how the owners would be assessing performance. On the face of it NA was getting by by the skin of his teeth and those metrics would have given the owners some justification in the change of manager.

There is definitely an element of bad/good luck but that’s just football. The key thing is how the data stacks up. The clubs analysts will have data on individuals including gps data which will assist in identifying things like position as well as more video footage to analyse so the management have all of the coaching tools at their disposal they could possibly ask for. My analysis is limited to just the data I can get and I have to pay for it as well!

Without doubt no fans in the grounds has been a massive leveller this season and I think this has affected Notts more than others.