Putin's Miscalculations

[Calgarybaggy]

Putin is in deep trouble.
1. He assumed nobody would stand up to his aggression and he could just walk into Ukraine.
2. He assumed Ukraine forces would roll over as soon as his army showed up.
3. He sent in reservists and inexperienced soldiers telling them they were on a training exercise on the assumption it would be an easy victory. The captured Russian soldiers are saying they had no idea they were being sent to shoot at civilians, which is being backed up by the messages they are sending home.
4. He has excellent soldiers he can send in but now the roads are clogged up with the initial wave of soldiers and their equipment so everything is going to get bogged down in a huge way. The morale of his army cannot be good.
5. He did not anticipate the scope of the reaction from western governments so now even the banking system is shut down for them.
6. The reputation of Russia is well and truly destroyed in commerce, sports, politics, etc.
7. The major oil companies are pulling out and taking their skilled personnel and capital with them. That may not sound like a big deal, but when your main source of funding is the oil industry, it needs lots of capital and lots of expertise to keep the oil flowing, and now Russia has neither.
8. The ruble has already been devalued significantly making capital and imports way more expensive, assuming that Russia can even raise capital any more and than anyone will sell anything to them. Russia is going to go into a serious inflationary spiral.
9. There is a lot more domestic discontent over this campaign than he anticipated. In this age of rapid communications, stories of atrocities and high body counts cannot be easily hidden from the masses.
10. The oligarchs are getting upset because now their non-Russian assets are frozen and they can't even use their fancy yachts moored in Monaco and St Tropez any more - not that anyone wants to be seen to be associated with them right now.
11. Even China is seriously re-thinking its approach to Russia.
12. Even if he successfully takes over Ukraine, he is dooming his army of occupation to a long term, well-armed resistance that will make Afghanistan seem like a garden party.
13. His tactic of bombing civilians smacks of absolute desperation because now he can be tried for war crimes so all he is achieving is firming up the resolve to get rid of him somehow.

The end result is that Putin made a huge gamble and lost. He is a spent force. He cannot survive this mess. The only issue now is how long it takes before all these factors bring him down and how many people have to die before it happens. Hopefully its weeks and not years but despots like Putin have a knack of sticking around longer than they otherwise should. The western powers could potentially speed up the process by intervening militarily now, but they run the risk of igniting a far deadlier and more widespread conflict. So I find it hard to condemn the Western leadership for being cautious because Putin's house of cards could easily collapse any day. In the meantime, do they really have make this choice: Do we risk 100,000 lives to save 1,000,000 Ukrainians or do we risk 100,000,000 lives to save 1,000,000 Ukrainians. Try getting any sleep with that decision on your mind.

[baggieal]

Putin is in deep trouble.
1. He assumed nobody would stand up to his aggression and he could just walk into Ukraine.
2. He assumed Ukraine forces would roll over as soon as his army showed up.
3. He sent in reservists and inexperienced soldiers telling them they were on a training exercise on the assumption it would be an easy victory. The captured Russian soldiers are saying they had no idea they were being sent to shoot at civilians, which is being backed up by the messages they are sending home.
4. He has excellent soldiers he can send in but now the roads are clogged up with the initial wave of soldiers and their equipment so everything is going to get bogged down in a huge way. The morale of his army cannot be good.
5. He did not anticipate the scope of the reaction from western governments so now even the banking system is shut down for them.
6. The reputation of Russia is well and truly destroyed in commerce, sports, politics, etc.
7. The major oil companies are pulling out and taking their skilled personnel and capital with them. That may not sound like a big deal, but when your main source of funding is the oil industry, it needs lots of capital and lots of expertise to keep the oil flowing, and now Russia has neither.
8. The ruble has already been devalued significantly making capital and imports way more expensive, assuming that Russia can even raise capital any more and than anyone will sell anything to them. Russia is going to go into a serious inflationary spiral.
9. There is a lot more domestic discontent over this campaign than he anticipated. In this age of rapid communications, stories of atrocities and high body counts cannot be easily hidden from the masses.
10. The oligarchs are getting upset because now their non-Russian assets are frozen and they can't even use their fancy yachts moored in Monaco and St Tropez any more - not that anyone wants to be seen to be associated with them right now.
11. Even China is seriously re-thinking its approach to Russia.
12. Even if he successfully takes over Ukraine, he is dooming his army of occupation to a long term, well-armed resistance that will make Afghanistan seem like a garden party.
13. His tactic of bombing civilians smacks of absolute desperation because now he can be tried for war crimes so all he is achieving is firming up the resolve to get rid of him somehow.

The end result is that Putin made a huge gamble and lost. He is a spent force. He cannot survive this mess. The only issue now is how long it takes before all these factors bring him down and how many people have to die before it happens. Hopefully its weeks and not years but despots like Putin have a knack of sticking around longer than they otherwise should. The western powers could potentially speed up the process by intervening militarily now, but they run the risk of igniting a far deadlier and more widespread conflict. So I find it hard to condemn the Western leadership for being cautious because Putin's house of cards could easily collapse any day. In the meantime, do they really have make this choice: Do we risk 100,000 lives to save 1,000,000 Ukrainians or do we risk 100,000,000 lives to save 1,000,000 Ukrainians. Try getting any sleep with that decision on your mind.

Totally agree and good post.

Point 12 - the Ukrainians are not chickens like the Afghan army who ran away - they will fight to the death. Even if cities are taken it will develop into his worst nightmare as the warfare will continue.

All Sports though should be consistent and ban the t wats and none of this bollox about competing without a flag and identity. Just ban the w ankers!

Chuck them out of the U.K. too so Ukrainians can have their properties or the funds of repossession.

[mickd1961]

Russia needs to remain a pariah state for as long as Putin or any of his cronies remain in charge.

They should be excluded from EVERY sport for a minimum of 10 years regardless of when Putin goes.

It should also be made illegal for any company either large or small to trade with Russia in any way.

We get a few orders from Russia each year but I’m going to refuse to send any future orders out.

They are the rudest of customers anyway so it’ll be a pleasure telling them to f u c k off.

ZERO trade with any Russian company or individual needs to be put in place.

[baggieal]

Putin is in deep trouble.
1. He assumed nobody would stand up to his aggression and he could just walk into Ukraine.
2. He assumed Ukraine forces would roll over as soon as his army showed up.
3. He sent in reservists and inexperienced soldiers telling them they were on a training exercise on the assumption it would be an easy victory. The captured Russian soldiers are saying they had no idea they were being sent to shoot at civilians, which is being backed up by the messages they are sending home.
4. He has excellent soldiers he can send in but now the roads are clogged up with the initial wave of soldiers and their equipment so everything is going to get bogged down in a huge way. The morale of his army cannot be good.
5. He did not anticipate the scope of the reaction from western governments so now even the banking system is shut down for them.
6. The reputation of Russia is well and truly destroyed in commerce, sports, politics, etc.
7. The major oil companies are pulling out and taking their skilled personnel and capital with them. That may not sound like a big deal, but when your main source of funding is the oil industry, it needs lots of capital and lots of expertise to keep the oil flowing, and now Russia has neither.
8. The ruble has already been devalued significantly making capital and imports way more expensive, assuming that Russia can even raise capital any more and than anyone will sell anything to them. Russia is going to go into a serious inflationary spiral.
9. There is a lot more domestic discontent over this campaign than he anticipated. In this age of rapid communications, stories of atrocities and high body counts cannot be easily hidden from the masses.
10. The oligarchs are getting upset because now their non-Russian assets are frozen and they can't even use their fancy yachts moored in Monaco and St Tropez any more - not that anyone wants to be seen to be associated with them right now.
11. Even China is seriously re-thinking its approach to Russia.
12. Even if he successfully takes over Ukraine, he is dooming his army of occupation to a long term, well-armed resistance that will make Afghanistan seem like a garden party.
13. His tactic of bombing civilians smacks of absolute desperation because now he can be tried for war crimes so all he is achieving is firming up the resolve to get rid of him somehow.

The end result is that Putin made a huge gamble and lost. He is a spent force. He cannot survive this mess. The only issue now is how long it takes before all these factors bring him down and how many people have to die before it happens. Hopefully its weeks and not years but despots like Putin have a knack of sticking around longer than they otherwise should. The western powers could potentially speed up the process by intervening militarily now, but they run the risk of igniting a far deadlier and more widespread conflict. So I find it hard to condemn the Western leadership for being cautious because Putin's house of cards could easily collapse any day. In the meantime, do they really have make this choice: Do we risk 100,000 lives to save 1,000,000 Ukrainians or do we risk 100,000,000 lives to save 1,000,000 Ukrainians. Try getting any sleep with that decision on your mind.

Russia needs to remain a pariah state for as long as Putin or any of his cronies remain in charge.

They should be excluded from EVERY sport for a minimum of 10 years regardless of when Putin goes.

It should also be made illegal for any company either large or small to trade with Russia in any way.

We get a few orders from Russia each year but I’m going to refuse to send any future orders out.

They are the rudest of customers anyway so it’ll be a pleasure telling them to f u c k off.

ZERO trade with any Russian company or individual needs to be put in place.

Agree with all that Mick! Russia has been taken off our site. A Russian ordered two weeks ago and she was the rudest b itch going. Our parcel could not be delivered so was on its way back to the U.K. - this Russian demanded an immediate refund and we said she would be refunded in 2 days time when we had received the parcel back. She opened up a PayPal dispute and kept demanding her money back. To totally p iss her off we replied and said we would respond to the PayPal dispute to the deadline. I made the b itch wait for 3 weeks and refunded her on the day of the PayPal deadline for response.

That’s what happens when you are a rude
b itch and especially a Russian one.

We go to Dubai a lot and loads of Russians there - no manners - no personality and
f uckin horrible!

[kettering_baggie]

What worries me is that Putin could make one more miscalculation, the biggest one possible, to attack NATO. Even if he managed to ‘win’, it would be a Pyrrhic victory, leaving him as the zsar of a world of rubble and radioactive waste.

[WBA1955]

What worries me is that Putin could make one more miscalculation, the biggest one possible, to attack NATO. Even if he managed to ‘win’, it would be a Pyrrhic victory, leaving him as the zsar of a world of rubble and radioactive waste.

Your last sentence is the reason he won't.

[Dubbag]

Well thought out and write out post CalagryBaggie...👍