O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[Old_pie]

Talks between Ukraine & Ruskis more promising but a what price? Rumour this morning that they will never join NATO, if so, what was the war all about? Could have been agreed before all the loss of life & bombings. Don't believe the Ukrainian people would agree to this

They might agree not to join NATO providing they are permitted to join the EU. And they may have to formally agree to the annexation of some of territory including Crimea and some eastern regions. The rest of the world might have something to say before they are prepared to start lifting the sanctions. All very complicated and beyond my wit.

[drillerpie]

Putin's objectives were: ruling out NATO membership, demilitarisation (ie Ukraine rendering themselves defenceless in the future), and denazification (ie the murder/abduction Zelinsky and the installment of a pro-Russian puppet government).

If Ukraine can agree to rule out NATO membership, but keep their government and the ability to run their own defences (hard to imagine they won't want to re-arm significantly after this) then it might be seen as a worthwhile deal.

[i961pie]

Putin's objectives were: ruling out NATO membership, demilitarisation (ie Ukraine rendering themselves defenceless in the future), and denazification (ie the murder/abduction Zelinsky and the installment of a pro-Russian puppet government).

If Ukraine can agree to rule out NATO membership, but keep their government and the ability to run their own defences (hard to imagine they won't want to re-arm significantly after this) then it might be seen as a worthwhile deal.

That is fair enough but the sanctions should stay for quite a long time.

[irishpete]

Putin's objectives were: ruling out NATO membership, demilitarisation (ie Ukraine rendering themselves defenceless in the future), and denazification (ie the murder/abduction Zelinsky and the installment of a pro-Russian puppet government).

If Ukraine can agree to rule out NATO membership, but keep their government and the ability to run their own defences (hard to imagine they won't want to re-arm significantly after this) then it might be seen as a worthwhile deal.

So thousands lose their lives & homes over something that was wanted at the start. "Unbieveable Jeff"
Putin "takes all"

[BigFatPie]

Boris Johnson going to Saudi Arabia to beg for their oil to replace Putin’s oil and gas is so…mental. Chopping off the heads of brown people and bombing their kids is clearly acceptable to our Glorious Leader.

[drillerpie]

It is and has been 'acceptable' to pretty much every leader of every country which has internal combustion engines in it, for obvious reasons.

If not them then it would be Iran or Venezuela, so he hasn't got a great amount of choice to be fair.

[drillerpie]

That is fair enough but the sanctions should stay for quite a long time.

I agree, and I think the move away from Russian gas and oil will be permanent, so they will be weaker as a result. Even if they do sell it to China you would imagine it will have to be at a discount (the price of anything generally goes down as the number of potential customers decreases).

[drillerpie]

So thousands lose their lives & homes over something that was wanted at the start. "Unbieveable Jeff"
Putin "takes all"

If Ukraine concedes too much then yes, it will be very unpopular, but seeing as Putin didn't even regard Ukraine as a proper country a month ago I think certain kinds of deal could be seen as progress.

It will be interesting to see what happens with other Western non-NATO countries like Finland now though.

[jackal2]

Putin's objectives were: ruling out NATO membership, demilitarisation (ie Ukraine rendering themselves defenceless in the future), and denazification (ie the murder/abduction Zelinsky and the installment of a pro-Russian puppet government).

If Ukraine can agree to rule out NATO membership, but keep their government and the ability to run their own defences (hard to imagine they won't want to re-arm significantly after this) then it might be seen as a worthwhile deal.

This would be the most likely basis for an agreement, allowing both sides to claim they achieved something. If it turns out this way, the only question will be why such an agreement wasn't reached before a bullet was fired? If this conflict is to achieve anything, it could be that Putin accepts he won't be able to re-build the USSR/Russian empire, and NATO accepts that it has progressed as far eastwards as it can without spooking the Russians/Chinese etc.

[drillerpie]

This would be the most likely basis for an agreement, allowing both sides to claim they achieved something. If it turns out this way, the only question will be why such an agreement wasn't reached before a bullet was fired? If this conflict is to achieve anything, it could be that Putin accepts he won't be able to re-build the USSR/Russian empire, and NATO accepts that it has progressed as far eastwards as it can without spooking the Russians/Chinese etc.

As regards why they didn't reach an agreement before but may do now, this is a horrible situation for Putin. For the first time we are seeing him negotiate from a position of relative weakness.

Their state news websites had victory declarations on autopublish for two days after the invasion (hastily deleted of course), and here we are three weeks in and they still haven't taken a major city.

They are encircling Kyiv with vehicles that can only drive on roads cause their crappy Chinese tyres will fail in the mud.

They are losing soldiers (including generals) at a rate they didn't expect, so they are going cap in hand to Chechnya and Syria for more manpower, and to China for money and weapons. US intelligence has utterly compromised their military to the point where Biden announces their next move two days in advance. The rouble is ****ed, their stock market will be ****ed as soon as it reopens, the entire western world wants nothing to do with their gas and oil and will diversify as soon as possible. Oh and the whole thing has been an unmitigated PR disaster.

As tragic as this has been for Ukraine I don't think they have a lot to lose at this point, so can probably drive a hard bargain, whereas paradoxically Putin is looking at a war he probably can't win to enable an occupation he definitely can't win, with a side order of economic ruin and possible coup attempts from inside Russia.