O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[jackal2]

As regards why they didn't reach an agreement before but may do now, this is a horrible situation for Putin. For the first time we are seeing him negotiate from a position of relative weakness.

Their state news websites had victory declarations on autopublish for two days after the invasion (hastily deleted of course), and here we are three weeks in and they still haven't taken a major city.

They are encircling Kyiv with vehicles that can only drive on roads cause their crappy Chinese tyres will fail in the mud.

They are losing soldiers (including generals) at a rate they didn't expect, so they are going cap in hand to Chechnya and Syria for more manpower, and to China for money and weapons. US intelligence has utterly compromised their military to the point where Biden announces their next move two days in advance. The rouble is ****ed, their stock market will be ****ed as soon as it reopens, the entire western world wants nothing to do with their gas and oil and will diversify as soon as possible. Oh and the whole thing has been an unmitigated PR disaster.

As tragic as this has been for Ukraine I don't think they have a lot to lose at this point, so can probably drive a hard bargain, whereas paradoxically Putin is looking at a war he probably can't win to enable an occupation he definitely can't win, with a side order of economic ruin and possible coup attempts from inside Russia.

Yes no question it was a strange decision from Putin. I didn't think he'd invade. I thought it was classic Putin brinksmanship, which he's previously used to gain better outcomes than he's maybe entitled to expect, but something has gone wildly wrong with his judgement here, leading many observers to raise questions about his mental state. And therein lies the reason why he needs to be given some sort of ladder to climb down, even if it's apparent to everyone other than some in Russia that he's failed to achieve his objective. It still signals the beginning of the end for him anyway, but hopefully in a less dangerous way than backing him completely into a corner.

[drillerpie]

Yes no question it was a strange decision from Putin. I didn't think he'd invade. I thought it was classic Putin brinksmanship, which he's previously used to gain better outcomes than he's maybe entitled to expect, but something has gone wildly wrong with his judgement here, leading many observers to raise questions about his mental state. And therein lies the reason why he needs to be given some sort of ladder to climb down, even if it's apparent to everyone other than some in Russia that he's failed to achieve his objective. It still signals the beginning of the end for him anyway, but hopefully in a less dangerous way than backing him completely into a corner.

I totally see where you're coming from and in a way I agree with you. The problem is that this kind of mindset - better to give him what he wants or he might do something mental - is the reason why we are where we are today.

[TheBlackHorse]

... all very interesting so far from an appalling view. Just shows how , in this case, the West has fallen foe F.E.A.R. - False evidence appearing real - satellite photos show large forces gathering; and who's to know the were inept (if we believe info so far). Surly we couldn't believe the Russians would use WW2 tactics. Another of the consequences will/should be all the Baltic and former USSR/non-NATO states will quickly re-arm. We will have Cold War 2 as the rest of the world (hopefully) re-sets its economic positioning. Thank you Mr P.

[keldsyke]

UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, said the UK was deploying the Sabre anti-air missile system to Poland, along with 100 troops, to protect Polish airspace from "further aggression by Russia".

Poland is a member of the Nato military alliance the UK is also part of.

But what is Sabre?

Described by the UK government as a "a state-of-the-art air defence system", it is said to be capable of hitting a tennis ball-sized object travelling at the speed of sound.

According to the British Army, the system includes three components: a 3D surveillance radar, a battle management and intelligence suit and a missile launcher.

It fires 99kg missiles that can reach speeds of up to 2,300 mph.

In practice, it will give Poland the ability to defend itself from jet fighters, missiles and bombs.

[irishpete]

Just watching a Russian plane, that left Moscow under the Russian flag fly into Poland now heading into the Czech Republic. A Nato plane flew past it in Poland. So what's that all about if in a no fly zone for Russian planes?

[keldsyke]

Just watching a Russian plane, that left Moscow under the Russian flag fly into Poland now heading into the Czech Republic. A Nato plane flew past it in Poland. So what's that all about if in a no fly zone for Russian planes?

Squawk:5122
ICAO:152ADF
Registration:RA-76511
Callsign:VDA5970
Model Code:IL76
Model:Ilyushin IL-76 TD-90VD
Year Built:
Operator:Volga-Dnepr Airlines
Speed:279.0 kts
Altitude:8150

Is this the one you’ve seen, an odd one as it seems to be heading for Austria and it’s listed as military

[irishpete]

Squawk:5122
ICAO:152ADF
Registration:RA-76511
Callsign:VDA5970
Model Code:IL76
Model:Ilyushin IL-76 TD-90VD
Year Built:
Operator:Volga-Dnepr Airlines
Speed:279.0 kts
Altitude:8150

Is this the one you’ve seen, an odd one as it seems to be heading for Austria and it’s listed as military

Yep landing in Czech Republic

[SwalePie]

A Russian aircraft carrying nuclear fuel was allowed to land in Slovakia recently to deliver supplies for power plants in that country. May be similar?

[irishpete]

A Russian aircraft carrying nuclear fuel was allowed to land in Slovakia recently to deliver supplies for power plants in that country. May be similar?

Brilliant if true!! Can bend the sanctions to suit. They are either banned from the airspace or not.

[SwalePie]

Brilliant if true!! Can bend the sanctions to suit. They are either banned from the airspace or not.

I'm not a nuclear physicist but I would imagine this is perhaps essential for the continued operation and perhaps the ongoing safety of the power stations. Happy to be corrected of course.