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The theory is this, I guess:
- Most managerial appointments fail. This is obvious, because most are sacked within a year or two.
- When one does hit it big and transform the club, they tend to leave for a bigger job within a year or two. As happened to us the last two times this happened with Allardyce and Cotterill.
- If they’re in charge of everything, culture, style of play, signings etc etc then when they leave you’re just back to playing a numbers game which is against you because we know most appointments fail.
- If you run a club like Notts, where the manager doesn’t deal with recruitment really and you’re looking for someone who plays the same way, give or take, each time, you’re less reliant on hitting on some magic formula that then disappears a few months down the line.
I don’t think we’re evidence for it either working or not working yet. My view would be that our structure makes it less likely that we’re going to have a one-off amazing season, but makes it much more likely that we won’t have a terrible season and will make progress over a longer time period. It’s pick your poison, I guess.
This would be all well and good at any level above, the problem with tier 5 is that a "one-off amazing season" is the only guaranteed way to go up, you can't finish 1st just by not having a terrible season, which leaves us with the play-offs - and we don't seem to be learning any lessons on that front.
True, but it is what it is. There’s no one left at the club to blame for relegation unless we’re pinning it on Jim O’Brien.
We’ve avoided doing what most big clubs who come down to this level do, which is nearly get themselves relegated again (or manage it like Stockport and get stuck down there for a few years) at least once and bob around in mid-table for a bit before their fifth or sixth attempt at hitting the jackpot with a manager works. Would we rather be doing that? I dunno.
You wouldn't want to finish mid-lower table, but there has to be a demoralising effect in losing in the play offs season in season out.
Having lost a home play off tie for the first time, Notts will now go into next season looking at 2nd-5th knowing full well that home advantage isn't the near guarantee of progress that we'd previously experienced it to be. If they lose touch with 1st, I think a lot of people will be resigned to yet another play off failure at best. So with that in mind it probably would have been better had we finished 17th, 12th, 8th over the past three seasons, but of course the gates would not have been as good with the impact on finances.
At this level, so far, Grimsby are the only team to have gone up via the play offs having lost in the play offs three times previously.
Number of 5th tier Play off failures before going up via the play off final
Hartlepool - 0
Harrogate - 1
Salford - 0
Tranmere - 1 (lost in final)
Forest Green - 2 (lost one final)
Grimsby - 3 (lost one final)
Bristol Rovers - 0
Cambridge - 2 (lost 2 finals during a 9 season stint)
Newport - 0
York City - 2 (lost one final)
Wimbledon - 0
Oxford - 1
Torquay - 1
Exeter - 1 (lost in final)
Morecambe - 2
Hereford - 2
Carlisle - 0
Shrewsbury - 0
Doncaster - 0