O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[Jampie]

Sure, that would minimize casualties... and so would Ukraine capitulating to Russia’s demands.

But neither side is going to accept either of those solutions. So they either reach a compromise that is acceptable to both, or they keep slogging it out. Since you think Ukraine is winning, and you’re in favour of that over peace, I’m sure you don’t mind the continuation of the war. By all means you’re entitled to that opinion.

Interestingly, according to the New York Times, the United States’ “top general”, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff just came out and said that Ukraine ought to negotiate now for a settlement that’s acceptable to both sides.

Out of curiosity, do you think he’s a lying Russian agent too?

https://archive.ph/rEbMq

My perspective on that is this:

• Russia invaded Ukraine, not the other way around
• Russia's "justifications" for doing so are abject BS. They have no real moral ground to stand on whatsoever.
• Russia's demands and war aims aren't reasonable at all. They opened the war with an attempt to assassinate a democratically elected leader and destroy a sovereign nation.
• Ukraine is fighting to recover their own land and people. This gives them the high moral ground, in fact they are 100% in the right and Russia is 100% in the wrong. We haven't seen a war so unambiguous since at least 1991.
• Russia is currently losing by every measure available
• Ukraine is currently winning by every measure available
• While it's possible Russia's mobilisation efforts will put them back on the offensive in a month or three, possibly in the spring, I personally doubt they will be enough to "win" the war. If Ukraine is put sufficiently on the back foot, the west can continue to escalate military aid. We have given them a tiny fraction of our rocket and tube artillery, none of our air power and no western tanks. There are entire layers to aid-escalation that would provide devastating advantages to the Ukrainians that we haven't so much as touched on yet.

Ergo, there is no reason for the west to push Ukraine to negotiate, and Ukraine has no reason to negotiate.

Furthermore, Putin has broken Russia's word on many occasions, and can be expected to do so again. So any "negotiations" will only be seen by Russia as a chance to pause the conflict (while they're losing), and regroup so they can attack again.

And lastly, if we examine the *options* for negotiation, the idea immediately falls apart. The last (several) times Russia has talked about "negotiating" their "reasonable demands" included essentially ending Ukraine as a sovereign state.

Meanwhile on the Ukrainian side, no "negotiation" that ends with them outside of a western security alliance would be viable in the long term, for the simple reason that Russia has now attacked them on three occasions and can be relied on to do it again - unless there is western air power facing them.

So regarding Mark Milley, if he has indeed called for Ukraine to negotiate, either he believes Russia can be convinced to let Ukraine join a western alliance (I do not, Putin knows that would be the end of his adventures), or he's wrong for calling for negotiations. It wouldn't be the first time a general (even a four-star) understood war but not diplomacy or the psychology of his enemy. The odds Milley is a Russian agent are roughly zero.

Mind you the odds of the press misreporting this by leaving important bits out or completely misunderstanding what he said are pretty high. Even the NYT has shown very poor understanding of military leaders' statements in the past.

[Jampie]

And that's not even getting into the US or the west's wants or needs WRT "negotiation". No sane person in the west with even the faintest grasp of history wants to see an invader negotiated with and allowed to keep land they stole.

The best outcome for the west, by far, is Russia's comprehensive defeat in Ukraine. This would send a message to future wannabe hitlers that they can't win, and provide a deterrent to such future instability. And this has real world implications immediately. Xi is no fool, and he will be watching the current mess with great interest.

Then there's the fact that Russia has lost much of its prewar combat power for basically no gain. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting, it's absolutely in the west's interests for Russia to continue its idiotic, losing war. By now it should be obvious that Russia hasn't presented a credible threat to NATO for at least twenty years, but the residual threat is declining with each piece of equipment they lose and each rouble of economic destruction.

And lastly, while the economic costs of high oil and gas prices aren't nice, accelerating the transition away from both is absolutely in the west's (and the world's) long term interests. Firstly because we can limit the damage of climate change by doing so, and also for the massive twin economic and geopolitical benefits of producing energy cheaply within our own economies and no longer being dependent on awful countries like Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia for our energy.

So yes, continuing the war as long as Ukraine wants to or until they liberate every last postage-stamp of land is entirely in the west's interests. And obviously, Ukraine's. As usual for Putin's entire reign, the only long term loser is Russia.

[andy6025]

And that's not even getting into the US or the west's wants or needs WRT "negotiation". No sane person in the west with even the faintest grasp of history wants to see an invader negotiated with and allowed to keep land they stole.

The best outcome for the west, by far, is Russia's comprehensive defeat in Ukraine. This would send a message to future wannabe hitlers that they can't win, and provide a deterrent to such future instability. And this has real world implications immediately. Xi is no fool, and he will be watching the current mess with great interest.

Then there's the fact that Russia has lost much of its prewar combat power for basically no gain. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to keep fighting, it's absolutely in the west's interests for Russia to continue its idiotic, losing war. By now it should be obvious that Russia hasn't presented a credible threat to NATO for at least twenty years, but the residual threat is declining with each piece of equipment they lose and each rouble of economic destruction.

And lastly, while the economic costs of high oil and gas prices aren't nice, accelerating the transition away from both is absolutely in the west's (and the world's) long term interests. Firstly because we can limit the damage of climate change by doing so, and also for the massive twin economic and geopolitical benefits of producing energy cheaply within our own economies and no longer being dependent on awful countries like Iran, Russia and Saudi Arabia for our energy.

So yes, continuing the war as long as Ukraine wants to or until they liberate every last postage-stamp of land is entirely in the west's interests. And obviously, Ukraine's. As usual for Putin's entire reign, the only long term loser is Russia.

Oh dear. That’s quite the jamside story. It has everything from assassination attempts to a crumbling Russian economy. I’m very much looking forward to that book. I hope they turn it into a movie too.

The other side says that Zalensky is much more useful to them alive than dead (in order to legitimize the negotiations). Otherwise with the level of corruption it’s reasonable to believe they could take him out with little difficulty. Kudos to Ukraine though for managing to assassinate a young female journalist. And they’ve got that other online hit-list complete with thousands of children on it and... Pink Floyd bass player Roger Waters. Lol.

As for the Russian economy losing roubles, you might be right - let’s check it out, shall we? Russia’s economy is set to contract by... 4.5% (really though, the predictions are all over the map - at one point it was 20% then 10% then 3% and now 4.5%, it’s almost as if they’re just guessing)... whereas Ukraine’s economy is going to shrink by... oh dear, I don’t think you want to know. Damn these metrics!

https://amp.theguardian.com/business...bank-forecasts

And that was before Russia started turning out the lights in Ukraine. I’m not sure if you heard, but yesterday a city councillor in Kiev told people to leave the city for winter if they are able to.

But yeah, this is apparently what’s known in Jamside Land as ‘Ukraine is winning and its in their interests to keep the war going.’ Go figure!

[TheBlackHorse]

... ah, yes, The Guardian ... ha ha ha ...

[frenchmagpie]

Oh dear. That’s quite the jamside story. It has everything from assassination attempts to a crumbling Russian economy. I’m very much looking forward to that book. I hope they turn it into a movie too.

The other side says that Zalensky is much more useful to them alive than dead (in order to legitimize the negotiations). Otherwise with the level of corruption it’s reasonable to believe they could take him out with little difficulty. Kudos to Ukraine though for managing to assassinate a young female journalist. And they’ve got that other online hit-list complete with thousands of children on it and... Pink Floyd bass player Roger Waters. Lol.

As for the Russian economy losing roubles, you might be right - let’s check it out, shall we? Russia’s economy is set to contract by... 4.5% (really though, the predictions are all over the map - at one point it was 20% then 10% then 3% and now 4.5%, it’s almost as if they’re just guessing)... whereas Ukraine’s economy is going to shrink by... oh dear, I don’t think you want to know. Damn these metrics!

https://amp.theguardian.com/business...bank-forecasts

And that was before Russia started turning out the lights in Ukraine. I’m not sure if you heard, but yesterday a city councillor in Kiev told people to leave the city for winter if they are able to.

But yeah, this is apparently what’s known in Jamside Land as ‘Ukraine is winning and its in their interests to keep the war going.’ Go figure!

Whatever the geopolitical rights, wrongs, excuses, propaganda, etc. a modern European nation has been invaded, civilians massacred, infrastructure targeted and the general population of Ukraine in particular and the world in general used as targets. And you are cheering for Russia !

Your input is some of the sickest posting I have seen on this board. There should be no doubt that the suffering lies at the door of only one gangster regime. I have no intention of responding to any of the *******s that you post but had to make this point. You would have been cheerleading for the Nazis when they invaded Sudetenland too. Sick.

[Jampie]

Oh dear. That’s quite the jamside story. It has everything from assassination attempts to a crumbling Russian economy. I’m very much looking forward to that book. I hope they turn it into a movie too.

The other side says that Zalensky is much more useful to them alive than dead (in order to legitimize the negotiations). Otherwise with the level of corruption it’s reasonable to believe they could take him out with little difficulty. Kudos to Ukraine though for managing to assassinate a young female journalist. And they’ve got that other online hit-list complete with thousands of children on it and... Pink Floyd bass player Roger Waters. Lol.

As for the Russian economy losing roubles, you might be right - let’s check it out, shall we? Russia’s economy is set to contract by... 4.5% (really though, the predictions are all over the map - at one point it was 20% then 10% then 3% and now 4.5%, it’s almost as if they’re just guessing)... whereas Ukraine’s economy is going to shrink by... oh dear, I don’t think you want to know. Damn these metrics!

https://amp.theguardian.com/business...bank-forecasts

And that was before Russia started turning out the lights in Ukraine. I’m not sure if you heard, but yesterday a city councillor in Kiev told people to leave the city for winter if they are able to.

But yeah, this is apparently what’s known in Jamside Land as ‘Ukraine is winning and its in their interests to keep the war going.’ Go figure!

I know this is too complicated for you, so I'll try to use small words. Ukraine doesn't need a working economy to fight the war, or win the war, because they're supplied by everyone else. And at no point have I claimed or implied Ukraine's economy is in any way doing well.

I also think the 4.5% figure for Russia's economy quoted above uses official Kremlin data, which is probably made up of lies like all of their data. The real numbers for Russia are almost certainly worse, but even at 4.5% negative growth - that's a recession. How many other "advanced" economies are in recession right now?

And think about the long term. Their major exports are oil and gas... oil is projected to start trending down, permanently, later this decade, and their gas exports are collapsing already. Meanwhile, they've lost an unknown but likely significant number of people to death and injury in the war, and hundreds of thousands have fled the country to stay out of it. The people who have left are very likely to be the more qualified and wealthy demographics. That bodes very, very poorly for Russia's long term economic future.

And BTW I think your openly gloating about the damage done to Ukraine reflects extremely poorly on you.

[i961pie]

Couldn't agree more, he is a sad case and more to be pitied than scorned.

[BanjoPie]

Couldn't agree more, he is a sad case and more to be pitied than scorned.

Can I recommend that everyone does as I have and block his posts (ignore list), once he realises that no-one is reading them he might just give up winding everyone up.

[andy6025]

I know this is too complicated for you, so I'll try to use small words. Ukraine doesn't need a working economy to fight the war, or win the war, because they're supplied by everyone else. And at no point have I claimed or implied Ukraine's economy is in any way doing well.

I also think the 4.5% figure for Russia's economy quoted above uses official Kremlin data, which is probably made up of lies like all of their data. The real numbers for Russia are almost certainly worse, but even at 4.5% negative growth - that's a recession. How many other "advanced" economies are in recession right now?

And think about the long term. Their major exports are oil and gas... oil is projected to start trending down, permanently, later this decade, and their gas exports are collapsing already. Meanwhile, they've lost an unknown but likely significant number of people to death and injury in the war, and hundreds of thousands have fled the country to stay out of it. The people who have left are very likely to be the more qualified and wealthy demographics. That bodes very, very poorly for Russia's long term economic future.

And BTW I think your openly gloating about the damage done to Ukraine reflects extremely poorly on you.

I’m just pointing out the facts. No need to act sore.

Russian economists actually put Russia’s contraction at ~3% so I went with the higher western figure.

As for Ukraine not needing a working economy to win the war because they’re being supplied by everyone else, well that may well be in jeopardy too. The soon to be House majority leader in the US said ‘no more blank cheques for Ukraine’... and Hungary just put the kibosh on the EU loaning/gifting Ukraine any more money, including releasing funds that have already been promised. How does this impact your assessment?

You also say that 100s of thousands of Russians have left the country. That’s true! But meanwhile Ukraine has lost ~7.6 million people, with ~2.85m of them going to... Russia!

And as for Western countries not going into recession... yikes, you really haven’t been following the news, have you?

As many thoughtful analysts have long predicted - Russia will sooner destroy Ukraine than see it join NATO. To be honest, I don’t think the ‘collective west’ really cares if Ukraine gets destroyed.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-uk...a4d238ec076f4a

https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...d-ukraine/amp/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...will-linger-on

[BanjoPie]

Ha Ha - I no longer see 6025 posts