Number Of Points That It Takes In League Two, Based On The Last 10 Seasons

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

The table below shows what it has taken in each of the last 10 seasons to finish one point above 23rd, one point above 8th and one point above 4th. The point is included. I.e. in season 2021/22 Oldham Athletic finished 23rd on 38 points, thus to finish one point above 23rd 39 points were needed and this is the figure in the table below.

______One more point than
Season 23rd_8th_4th
2012/13 52___68__77
2013/14 51___63__77
2014/15 42___69__85
2015/16 35___70__86
2016/17 47___70__78
2017/18 47___73__81
2018/19 42___71__77
2019/20 41___72__83
2020/21 46___72__79
2021/22 39___77__81
Average 44.2_70.5_80.4

[Crocodile_Perth]

Looking at the current season's ratio of points per game at the bottom end of League Two it seems that we are already assured of avoiding relegation even if we lose every match from now on.

[Blackdogblue]

Wish we were…

[cayambe]

Not better to have 1 pt above 3 rd? and 1 pt above 7 th? or average for 3 rd and 7 th

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

Not better to have 1 pt above 3 rd? and 1 pt above 7 th? or average for 3 rd and 7 th

No, you are completely wrong about that.

The most important split point is 1 point above 4th. There is no practical difference between 3rd and 1 point above 3rd. Whereas 1 point above 4th guarantees automatic promotion.

Similarly, another important split is 1 point above 8th. There is no practical difference between 7th and 1 point above 7th. The only difference is the opposition that you play in the Play-Off Semi-Final. But since you need to win the whole Play-Off competition it is of no consequence who you play in the Semi-Final. The important split is 1 point above 8th which is the difference between being and not being in the Play-Offs.

The average number of points by the 3rd and 7th teams are similarly figures of no consequence. This is because a team finishing 3rd may have finished several points ahead of 4th. That is a poor average to take because if a team finishes 3rd with 2 points more than 4th the points necessary to finish 3rd in that season would actually have been 1 less than that achieved by the team finishing 3rd. Thus the average number of points needed to finish 1 point above 4th is the correct figure and similarly the average number of points needed to finish 1 point above 8th is the correct figure. They are in the table.

1 point above 7th is totally irrelevant to any issue, as is 1 point above 3rd.
The average number of points for 3rd and 7th are totally irrelevant because to finish in those positions it may have been possible to have done so by getting fewer points.

Have a clear think about it. Your issue has been raised in the past and I recall that Griff understands the reason for my figures being by far the most appropriate

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

I.e.
2nd place finishes on 76 points.
3rd place finishes on 75 points.
4th place finishes on 72 points.

What is the crucial figure here? It is 73 points. Basing any calculation on 3rd place figure of 75 points is irrelevant.
To get into the Play-Offs the figure is 1 point above 4th place. So giving the 4th place plus one point situation for
each season and then taking the average over 10 seasons is appropriate. It is what the aim is.
We shall ignore goal difference because the options are too numerous.

So you can clearly see that the most important figures are :-
1 point more than 4th.
1 point more than 8th.
1 point more than 23rd.

Basing calculations on the number of points that 3rd+1, 7th+1 and 22nd+1 amount to is irrelevant.

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

Don't forget these are completed seasons. In the above example the team finishing 3rd could have done so on 73 points. That is the gist of the matter. 1 point above 4th place in this case was 73 points. The actual number of points that the 3rd placed team got does not matter.

[cayambe]

Surely 1 pt above 4th does not guarantee automatic promotion if the average points for the third place is 2 pts or more above the average for 4 th?

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

Of course 1 point above 4th place guarantees promotion. If you get any more points than 4th place you are guaranteed promotion because you finish no lower than 3rd. You have finished above 4th place. What are you smoking / drinking!

These are seasons that have been completed. If in a subsequent season you get 1 point more than 4th place you are guaranteed promotion. My table gives the number of points needed to finish 1 point above 4th place for each of the last 10 seasons and it gives the overall average.

To use '1 point more than third place' would put a team into second place. The issue is not about 2nd and 3rd place. It is about getting one point more than 4th place, assuring 3rd place.

FFS Griff read this exchange and explain to Cayambe where he is fundamentally mistaken. I thought that this was simple.

[cayambe]

So the average pts are say

1 = 86
2 = 82
3 = 80
4= 76

Finish 1 pt more than the average for 4 = 77.