Number Of Points That It Takes In League Two, Based On The Last 10 Seasons

[cayambe]

The table below shows what it has taken in each of the last 10 seasons to finish one point above 23rd, one point above 8th and one point above 4th. The point is included. I.e. in season 2021/22 Oldham Athletic finished 23rd on 38 points, thus to finish one point above 23rd 39 points were needed and this is the figure in the table below.

______One more point than
Season 23rd_8th_4th
2012/13 52___68__77
2013/14 51___63__77
2014/15 42___69__85
2015/16 35___70__86
2016/17 47___70__78
2017/18 47___73__81
2018/19 42___71__77
2019/20 41___72__83
2020/21 46___72__79
2021/22 39___77__81
Average 44.2_70.5_80.4

Lets examine your hypothesis which is I think that gaining 1 pt above what the 4 th positioned team gets means that a team will be automatically promoted.

Taking data from English football ;league tables

2001/02 3rd Mansfield 79 4 th Cheltenham 78.
2002/03 3 rd Wrexham 84 4 th Bournemouth 74
2003/04 3 rd Torquay 81 4 th Hudderrsfield 81
2004/05 3 rd Swansea 80 4 th Southen8 78
2005/06 3 rd Orient 81 4 th Grimsby 78
2006/07 3 rd Swindon 85 4 th MKD 84
2007/08 3 rd Hereford 88 4 th Stockport 82
2008/09 3 rd Wycombe 78 4 th Bury 78
2009/10 3 rd Rochdale 82 4 th Morecambe 73
2010/11 3 rd Wyc 80 4 th Shrews 79
2011/12 3 rd Crawley 84 4 th Southend 83
2012/13 3 rd P Vale 78 4 th Burton 76
2013 / 14 3rd Rochdale 81 4th Fleetwood 76
2014 / 15 3 rd Bury 85 4 th Wycombe 84
2015/16 3 rd Bristol 85 4 th Accrington 85
2016 / 17 3 rd Donc 85 4th lUTON 77
2017/18 3 RD wYC 84 4 th Exe 80
2018/19 3 rd MKD 79 4 th Mans 76
2019/20 COVID
2020/21 3 rd Bolt 79 4rd Morec 78
2021 / 22 BR 80 4th North 80

Comments??

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

You prove my point. There are many seasons in which the 3rd placed team gets more than just a single point clear of 4th. Therefor that team exceeds the requirement. Congratulations on precisely proving my point.

1 point more than 4th is the requirement in each season.
Add together 10 seasons of that number and divide by 10 you get the average number of points needed to finish 1 point clear of 4th in those 10 seasons.

In uncompleted Covid seasons I multiplied the points per game ratio of all teams by 46, thus giving credible figures to use.

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

2012/13 3rd PVale 78 4th Burton 76 (77 points needed to finish 1 point above 4th and thus be 3rd. P V still 3rd with 77)
2013 / 14 3rd Rochdale 81 4th Fleetwood 76 (77)
2014 / 15 3 rd Bury 85 4 th Wycombe 84 (85)
2015/16 3 rd Bristol 85 4 th Accrington 85 (86 needed to be certain of being above 4th place)
2016 / 17 3 rd Donc 85 4th LUTON 77 (78)
2017/18 3 RD wYC 84 4 th Exe 80 (81)
2018/19 3 rd MKD 79 4 th Mans 76 (77)
2019/20 COVID (83 based on ratio of points per game made up to 46 games)
2020/21 3 rd Bolt 79 4rd Morec 78 (79)
2021 / 22 BR 80 4th North 80 (81)

The common sense figures in brackets are exactly those in my table.

______One more point than
Season 23rd_8th_4th
2012/13 52___68__77
2013/14 51___63__77
2014/15 42___69__85
2015/16 35___70__86
2016/17 47___70__78
2017/18 47___73__81
2018/19 42___71__77
2019/20 41___72__83
2020/21 46___72__79
2021/22 39___77__81
Average 44.2_70.5_80.4

[cayambe]

Well you have not proven that a team that gains 1 pt above fourth place will be automatically promoted. Anyway enough of this toing and froing. Cheers

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

Of course a team that gets 1 more point than 4th place will finish above 4th place and thus get promoted. What do you believe happens to a team that gets 1 point more than 4th place.

I have proved it by using your own list of 4th and 3rd place finishers, inserting the obvious figures.

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

In what kind of mathematics in what kind of universe does getting 1 point more than 4th place not get the team the 3rd automatic promotion place?

The evidence is here :- https://boards.footymad.net/showthre...7#post40184727

[griff]

Anyway, it looks like the average is 81 points, if so we need another 20 from 12 games. Six wins and two draws would get us that.

However if it was to be another 2015-16 we’d need 86 and 25 points from 12 games is a big ask. Eight wins and a draw? Or seven wins and 4 draws?

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

Maybe I am wrong in my assertion that a League Two team getting one point more than the 4th placed team gets automatic promotion.

It could be that a team getting one point more than the 4th placed team gets relegated two leagues down and in that league starts with a points deduction of 15 points. Clearly I know f­uck all.

[_Stefan_Kuntz]

Anyway, it looks like the average is 81 points, if so we need another 20 from 12 games. Six wins and two draws would get us that.

However if it was to be another 2015-16 we’d need 86 and 25 points from 12 games is a big ask. Eight wins and a draw? Or seven wins and 4 draws?

Quite

[Chauncey]

Pffft..

You lot have it easy,Notts are on 84 points and no guarantee of promotion