Quote Originally Posted by the_anticlough View Post
I've got no time for the fatalistic/superstitious posts on this thread full of gloom about our chances. If the club thought like that they might as well pack up for good.

Notts fans just need to know that if we end up in the play-offs there is more chance of us failing than succeeding. That's just how it is in a 6-team knock-out competition.

And that's even at the most optimistic projections.
Let's be generous and give ourselves a 70% chance of winning the home semi. Then be generous again and give a 60% chance of winning the final - that's a 42% probablity of promotion, 58% of staying NL

But that's as close to controllable as we're ever going to get. Strong management and a strong mentality can get the most of that 42% shot. We're a good, promotion worthy team and we've just got to prove it - any team that has ever achieved anything has had to do the same.
If you're mentally weak, too nervy, fearful and and negative-minded in sports, you're in the wrong game and deserve to lose.
Taking your probability of 42% chance of success in the playoffs we also need to add the chance of automatic promotion.
Current odds are 11/4 against (that is 26%)
We have 2 bites of the cherry.
The chance of failure in both is .58 x .74 = 43%. Success 57%
Current odds of promotion at the bookies is 4/7 (64%)
So overall about 60% chance of promotion.
Personally I think our chances are better than this at about 70%.
For context the bookies are giving Wrexham about an 87% chance.