O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[drillerpie]

At the beginning of the invasion I would have agreed with you, but seeing the shambolic state of Russia now I wouldn't be so sure.

Never would I have thought that a group of mercenaries would be able to take a major Russian city in a day, and advance on Moscow. But it has happened.

Never would I have thought that Russian partisans in Ukraine could shoot their way over the border into Russia for a two day joyride. That happened too (twice).

When things like this seem impossible but then start to be regular occurrences, it's normally a sign of a bigger shift. To quote Hemingway it happens "gradually, then suddenly". The emperor has no clothes. The war could be over this year.

[Old_pie]

Russia used a different type of vaccine. No idea if it will turn out to be any more or less safe. Like us they had no long term data for an emergency roll out of new technology. I think theirs might be considered a more traditional vaccine than Pfizer, but I stand to be corrected on that.

I wouldn't have brought this subject into the thread, so don't blame me.

I think we can safely say that the evidence shows whatever vaccine the Russian's have used as gone to their heads.

[drillerpie]

Again the answers are within the questions. Mercenary groups are primarily 'for' themselves, rather than 'for' or 'against' a particular cause or strategy. They are liable to go wherever the rewards for them look greatest, whatever form those rewards may take, and wherever they're being offered from. As such, you wouldn't want to put yourself in a position where your military strategy relies too heavily on their loyalty.

That was the conclusion reached by European countries in the 1600s, when the 30 year war that devastated most of northern Europe was fought by mercenaries. They would drain a country's resources, drain them some more while they indebted themselves, then go and fight for the next highest bidder, including against whoever they'd been fighting before.

This is why professional national armies were introduced. They needed to be paid for by taxation though, and taxation needed a nationwide bureaucracy, which is the pared down version of how the modern state came to be!

[Old_pie]

At the beginning of the invasion I would have agreed with you, but seeing the shambolic state of Russia now I wouldn't be so sure.

Never would I have thought that a group of mercenaries would be able to take a major Russian city in a day, and advance on Moscow. But it has happened.

Someone in the Kremlin providing assistance?

But I am very mindful of the saying that the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend.

[upthemaggies]

The war could be over this year.

In that case Queenslandpie won't be so out of the way from danger once it then kicks off between the USA and China, assuming the USA doesn't degenerate into its' own Civil War over drag queen story hour beforehand.
Probably in China's interests to keep the Ukraine war going, there was a story about Ukraine finding more Chinese tech in the weapons recently despite China promising not to supply Russia.

[jackal2]

That was the conclusion reached by European countries in the 1600s, when the 30 year war that devastated most of northern Europe was fought by mercenaries. They would drain a country's resources, drain them some more while they indebted themselves, then go and fight for the next highest bidder, including against whoever they'd been fighting before.

This is why professional national armies were introduced. They needed to be paid for by taxation though, and taxation needed a nationwide bureaucracy, which is the pared down version of how the modern state came to be!

Indeed.

In fact it's a pared down version of national and international life: the endless tension that shapes individual countries and the relationships between them. At one extreme is the prospect of anarchy and statelessness, while at the other extreme is overwhelming state control and the bureaucracy that comes with it. Within our countries and across them we engage in an infinite 'discussion' about where precisely is the best place to be between these two situations.

I've always thought international politics is a psychopathic game. If you go looking for 'right' or 'wrong' or 'good' or 'evil' you'll meet yourself on the way back. It's purely about survival.

[upthemaggies]

Belarus president claims that Wagner has agreed to end the insurrection. Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for “security guarantees” for his fighters.

[drillerpie]

Belarus president claims that Wagner has agreed to end the insurrection. Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for “security guarantees” for his fighters.

Confirmed by Prigozhin.

Wonder what they offered him?

Some people on social media saying it was a planned/sham coup all along. Can't see how it benefits either of them though.

Putin having to evacuate (his plane left Moscow this afternoon, Kremlin PR denied he was on it, so he probably was on it) RU army having to blow up bridges and dig up roads around Moscow, loads of troops and equipment moved away from Ukraine. This weakens Putin and has no obvious benefit for his invasion.

Prigozhin the rabble rousing populist going to take out the complacent and decadent elite needs some red meat to throw at his soldiers and supporters. He surely can't just say he changed his mind. Plus he will need to sleep with both eyes open from now on.

[upthemaggies]

Confirmed by Prigozhin.

Wonder what they offered him?

Some people on social media saying it was a planned/sham coup all along. Can't see how it benefits either of them though.

Putin having to evacuate (his plane left Moscow this afternoon, Kremlin PR denied he was on it, so he probably was on it) RU army having to blow up bridges and dig up roads around Moscow, loads of troops and equipment moved away from Ukraine. This weakens Putin and has no obvious benefit for his invasion.

Prigozhin the rabble rousing populist going to take out the complacent and decadent elite needs some red meat to throw at his soldiers and supporters. He surely can't just say he changed his mind. Plus he will need to sleep with both eyes open from now on.

Not Russia's finest hour, that's for sure.

I know you won't agree with this but I would say now was the time for a peace deal from which Russia would accept peanuts.
If it drags on then it'll either end in catastrophe or a peace deal where Russia gets more than they would if it was done now.
I expect it will drag on for many years and there's no chance of talks any time soon.

[drillerpie]

Not Russia's finest hour, that's for sure.

I know you won't agree with this but I would say now was the time for a peace deal from which Russia would accept peanuts.
If it drags on then it'll either end in catastrophe or a peace deal where Russia gets more than they would if it was done now.
I expect it will drag on for many years and there's no chance of talks any time soon.

Yeah I'm afraid I don't agree.

If the coup had developed it would've give Putin a credible out - "we can't fight a civil war and a foreign war so the invasion is over".

If Prigozhin somehow had taken power he could've gone with "The invasion was botched by others, not me, but no more Russians into the meat grinder".

As it is there is no easy out for the Russians. Also it would be impossible for Zelensky to make a deal now after so many Ukrainians have died defending the country, with a gazillion tonnes of military hardware still to arrive, tens of thousands of troops yet to deploy, and Russia seemingly struggling.

I know war is the most awful thing and it's easy for me to say from where I am, but I really think this is a war that Russia needs to lose unambiguously, so it has to come to terms with the fact it'snot an empire any more, in the same way that all other European countries have done.

Either that or stay a dictatorship, stay completely isolated from Europe and pivot to Asia where that kind of thing is more accepted.

Interestingly, another theory on social media is that Progozhin was counting on support from oligarchs/parts of the military which didn't materialise.