O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[upthemaggies]

Either that or stay a dictatorship, stay completely isolated from Europe and pivot to Asia where that kind of thing is more accepted.
.

Been listening to Kisin and FWIW he was saying there's zero chance of Russia becoming a democracy after what happened last time, he also said many there see Putin as weak and that they want a stronger leader. So people here celebrating that Putin's time might be coming to an end will likely be very disappointed with the replacement, "Do you think Nick Clegg is waiting in the wings?"

[drillerpie]

Been listening to Kisin and FWIW he was saying there's zero chance of Russia becoming a democracy after what happened last time, he also said many there see Putin as weak and that they want a stronger leader. So people here celebrating that Putin's time might be coming to an end will likely be very disappointed with the replacement, "Do you think Nick Clegg is waiting in the wings?"

Well yes I agree with him on all counts. Russia has never really been free in any shape or form, and they don't have the necessary traditions to build a democracy.

Russia came from Muscovy, which emerged quite late as a population centre (much later than Ukraine for example) and very quickly became a vassal of the Mongol horde, who taught them how to fight with tactics which were unstoppable at the time, in return for tributes. These tactics eventually allowed the Muscovites to conquer territory all the way south and all the way east, to form the Russian empire.

After that there came the various Czars, with more and more repressive versions of serfdom, under which everything and everyone belonged to the Czars.

From that they passed very quickly to the Soviet Union, which we all know about. They have never really been free or had any legally enshrined democratic rights in several centuries of existence. In the short periods of time they have had them on paper, they have been severely curtailed by corruption.

So the Russian tradition is more about warfare and empire building than it is about the legal frameworks, individual rights, and so on, that distinguished Western political tradition. There is no more point trying to export democracy to Russia than there was to Afghanistan. But what will be will be on that score - if it happens, it happens.

I was just outlining what needs to happen if Russian wants to be in the same club as European and North American democracies.

Assuming Russia does become an even more belligerent, more expansionist, more repressive country, then we just militarise the borders with Europe proper, and iron curtain them again for as long as we need to.

They can do whatever they like (I know they can't as the people have no say really, just an expression) as long as we know where we stand. The problems in recent years have come from pretending Russia was part of our club when it clearly wasn't, and ignoring the evidence that was staring us in the face.

I kind of hope they do pivot to China as it would be funny if they destroyed a lucrative relationship with Europe only to make themselves vassals of China, a country that does actually have territorial disputes with them. I'd give it 20/30 years of Russian decline before China intervenes militarily to take the parts of Russia it wants.

[Mud Pie]

thanks for the interesting reads and highly informative debate from all sides. Who'd have thought Notts mad would be such a resource.

[Mud Pie]

... assuming the USA doesn't degenerate into its' own Civil War over drag queen story hour beforehand.

that's a fine postcard from teh zeitgeist right there!

[Old_pie]

So what's going on now? Where's Andy when you need him?

[maddogslater]

Haha love it ! Are you andy in disguise..are you annndyyy in disguiiiise !

Quick ! Put your phone away frogpie, mummy woodentops coming.

[upthemaggies]

thanks for the interesting reads and highly informative debate from all sides. Who'd have thought Notts mad would be such a resource.

Football fan forums must be one of the few last remaining corners of the internet that haven't become political echo chambers, we've got a genuine diversity of thoughts and ideas here.

[andy6025]

So what's going on now? Where's Andy when you need him?

I’ve heard a wide range of theories from Prigozhin wanting to take Putin’s job by force, to it being a road-show protest, to it all being staged play-acting. If it was the latter then they did a pretty good job of convincing me it was all real.

But apparently they’ve brokered a deal that’s turned Wagner around and keeps Prigozhin out of the dock and on his why to Belarus.

Exciting stuff! I’d agree with the guy above that said Russians typically see Putin handling the West and Ukraine with kid gloves and might rather prefer someone that’s more apt to level the place. Good thing they’re not a democracy ;-)

In other news, Ukraine announced another round of mobilization in half a dozen districts yesterday… just a few more and maybe they’ll have the decisive victory driller’s holding out for.

[upthemaggies]

Twitter conspiracy theory "magine if the CIA spent the last few months secretly arming and funding the Wagner group, waiting to transfer a large (maybe 6.2billion$) final payment until they march on Moscow. And then as soon as transfer is complete, they turn around and walk back to the Frontline to fight."

[GranthamPie]

The whole thing stinks to high heaven if you ask me…. like a badly written soap opera.

So Prigozhin now sits comfortably in Belarus, waiting for the last few days of Lukashenko… takeover complete.

Kyiv needs to start building those defences now.