Quote Originally Posted by SwalePie View Post
I see Trump's odds in Iowa are drifting and about 3/4 of the bets are on the Democrats side now. Probably wagers made in light of the Selzer poll of course.

Having said that, 'drifting' is pushing it a little as he's still around 2/9 and she's at 10/3 with Bet365
The Selzer Iowa Poll would normally just have been discounted as an error, but with the mainstream media jumping on it, it has scared a few punters.

There's more to it than just Harris being projected to win by 3.00%. For a 'rogue poll' to work, there has to be high level of believability in it and the fact that Iowa was Democrat for quite a while (prior to Trump), leant an air of feasibility to the poll too.

Choosing her own state, Iowa, to show that pro-Trump states could be turning against him, would cause maximum publicity - and boy did the outlets like CNN, MSNBC, NBC and The Atlantic give it some airplay.

Now the US Polls have for the last two elections been way out, so it's possible that Ann Selzer is 100% correct. Selzer was also the best poller in Iowa in 2016 and 2020, when others called it to Clinton and Biden.

We'll soon find out .