O/T:- Betting odds for US Election [The USA Politics Thread]

[SwalePie]

I see Trump's odds in Iowa are drifting and about 3/4 of the bets are on the Democrats side now. Probably wagers made in light of the Selzer poll of course.

Having said that, 'drifting' is pushing it a little as he's still around 2/9 and she's at 10/3 with Bet365

[Lullapie]

I see Trump's odds in Iowa are drifting and about 3/4 of the bets are on the Democrats side now. Probably wagers made in light of the Selzer poll of course.

Having said that, 'drifting' is pushing it a little as he's still around 2/9 and she's at 10/3 with Bet365

The Selzer Iowa Poll would normally just have been discounted as an error, but with the mainstream media jumping on it, it has scared a few punters.

There's more to it than just Harris being projected to win by 3.00%. For a 'rogue poll' to work, there has to be high level of believability in it and the fact that Iowa was Democrat for quite a while (prior to Trump), leant an air of feasibility to the poll too.

Choosing her own state, Iowa, to show that pro-Trump states could be turning against him, would cause maximum publicity - and boy did the outlets like CNN, MSNBC, NBC and The Atlantic give it some airplay.

Now the US Polls have for the last two elections been way out, so it's possible that Ann Selzer is 100% correct. Selzer was also the best poller in Iowa in 2016 and 2020, when others called it to Clinton and Biden.

We'll soon find out .

[drillerpie]

The markets are factoring in a Trump win too. They are predicting a rise in the US$ if he wins, but a large fall if Harris wins. To me, that tells more about who is right for the US. Remember everyone, this is the US Election.

I like my political leaders doing what is best for my country, not what is good for everyone else.

Trump's publicly stated policy aim is actually to have a weaker dollar. He has always wanted that, even before he went into politics.

It's just that if he goes ahead with his policies, particularly tariffs and deportations, everything is going to get more expensive in the USA. This means the Fed will raise interest rates to cool inflation and global investors will then pour money into US bonds to get a piece of the high interest rates.

To do that they will have to sell their currencies and buy USD, hence the strengthening dollar (it's actually not really strengthening anymore but it was for a couple of weeks).

[i961pie]

Let's face it what a choice? I thought our politicians are bad but if these two are the best America can come up with God help them.

[slack_pie]

Let's face it what a choice? I thought our politicians are bad but if these two are the best America can come up with God help them.

Agreed, the two candidates are both awful in different ways. You have to pick your poison.

That said, I quite like some of the people that Trump has assembled behind him. Vivek Ramaswamy is on a completely different level to most politicians and has that private-sector zeal that's needed to make real change. He looks like a future president in waiting to me. RFK Junior may have some controversial views, but he seems genuinely motivated to tackle the issues contributing to poor health in the US. And I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'd genuinely be interested to see what a combination of Elon Musk and Ron Paul could achieve by auditing the public sector, cutting the fat, and driving real efficiency. JD Vance is also a more competent VP than Walz as far as I'm concerned.

[Lullapie]

Trump's publicly stated policy aim is actually to have a weaker dollar. He has always wanted that, even before he went into politics.

It's just that if he goes ahead with his policies, particularly tariffs and deportations, everything is going to get more expensive in the USA. This means the Fed will raise interest rates to cool inflation and global investors will then pour money into US bonds to get a piece of the high interest rates.

To do that they will have to sell their currencies and buy USD, hence the strengthening dollar (it's actually not really strengthening anymore but it was for a couple of weeks).

You're spouting much of what the left-wing fear-mongers' are spouting. What about concentration camps, forcing women to not have abortions if they want them, splitting up mixed race families and making the white partner marry another white partner. The list goes on and on - why didn't you mention those?

The idea behind the tariffs, to anyone who understands the reason behind them, is to force massive US corporations to invest in America or to stop them from moving their factories overseas.

This in turn will create US jobs and take people off welfare. The US is the biggest economy in the world and it has been decimated by Democrat policies over the last 30 years.

You have to have lived there or have close contacts in the US to understand why nearly 75 million people voted for him in 2020.

GM reducing production to nothing in Michigan, Apple making nearly all of their products in China, John Deere planning on closing their Pennsylvanian production plant and moving it to Mexico - again the list goes on and on. Trump threatened John Deere a few months ago with 200% tariffs if they moved to Mexico and they reversed their plans. See it works and he wasn't even President.

Just as you and many others on here find it unbelievable how anyone could vote for Trump, for me I can't understand why anyone wouldn't. I am connected to a large business and commerce company and to me, his plans all stack up - I really have given up on people who don't get it.

A strengthening dollar makes imports expensive - therefore, it's more cost effective to produce within the US - isn't THAT Trump's plan? The only thing that the US doesn't currently have is cheap energy - but he has a plan for that too. Incidentally his plan was also adopted by Kamala a few days after Trump announced it.

[Lullapie]

Agreed, the two candidates are both awful in different ways. You have to pick your poison.

That said, I quite like some of the people that Trump has assembled behind him. Vivek Ramaswamy is on a completely different level to most politicians and has that private-sector zeal that's needed to make real change. He looks like a future president in waiting to me. RFK Junior may have some controversial views, but he seems genuinely motivated to tackle the issues contributing to poor health in the US. And I know they are not everyone's cup of tea, but I'd genuinely be interested to see what a combination of Elon Musk and Ron Paul could achieve by auditing the public sector, cutting the fat, and driving real efficiency. JD Vance is also a more competent VP than Walz as far as I'm concerned.

Can you tell me the last election in any free country where either leader/candidate has been generally accepted as being a good choice?

Or tell me the last US election when one of the candidates has been a good pick for everybody. It's generally the media who picks the leaders and tells you how they would be for you.

[slack_pie]

Can you tell me the last election in any free country where either leader/candidate has been generally accepted as being a good choice?

Or tell me the last US election when one of the candidates has been a good pick for everybody. It's generally the media who picks the leaders and tells you how they would be for you.

Nope. There are often people behind them who seem competent, but I can't remember the last time a leadership race was fought between two outstanding candidates.

[drillerpie]

You're spouting much of what the left-wing fear-mongers' are spouting. What about concentration camps, forcing women to not have abortions if they want them, splitting up mixed race families and making the white partner marry another white partner. The list goes on and on - why didn't you mention those?

The idea behind the tariffs, to anyone who understands the reason behind them, is to force massive US corporations to invest in America or to stop them from moving their factories overseas.

This in turn will create US jobs and take people off welfare. The US is the biggest economy in the world and it has been decimated by Democrat policies over the last 30 years.

You have to have lived there or have close contacts in the US to understand why nearly 75 million people voted for him in 2020.

GM reducing production to nothing in Michigan, Apple making nearly all of their products in China, John Deere planning on closing their Pennsylvanian production plant and moving it to Mexico - again the list goes on and on. Trump threatened John Deere a few months ago with 200% tariffs if they moved to Mexico and they reversed their plans. See it works and he wasn't even President.

Just as you and many others on here find it unbelievable how anyone could vote for Trump, for me I can't understand why anyone wouldn't. I am connected to a large business and commerce company and to me, his plans all stack up - I really have given up on people who don't get it.

A strengthening dollar makes imports expensive - therefore, it's more cost effective to produce within the US - isn't THAT Trump's plan? The only thing that the US doesn't currently have is cheap energy - but he has a plan for that too. Incidentally his plan was also adopted by Kamala a few days after Trump announced it.

Why are you so confrontational? Was I rude to you? In any case I didn't see you actually contest any of the points I made, just some unwarranted assumptions about me and a laundry list of unrelated arguments.

By the way, a strong dollar does not make imports to the US more expensive. It's actually the opposite.

[Glad2BeAPie]

Trumps shooter was a crap shot