O/T:- Betting odds for US Election [The USA Politics Thread]

[jackal2]

I don’t think you can infer anything about the result of the Tory leadership election apart from the fact that a majority of the membership wanted Badenoch instead of Jenrick to be leader. If you pushed me I’d say from what I know of Tory members they prefer a strong, possibly authoritarian image which she has successfully cultivated, based on not much imo.

I wouldn't disagree that Conservative members prefer a strong, possibly authoritarian leader. I've never been a member of the party but I don't think it's any secret that many party members and supporters regard Margaret Thatcher as their best leader of modern times and she certainly fitted that description. Kemi has openly cited Mrs T as an influence, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if that was a big factor in her success. I've got a higher opinion of Kemi than you have, based on what I've seen so far, but it's certainly true that she is comparatively inexperienced and the acid test of her abilities and ideological strength is yet to come.

With regards to ethnic minorities voting for Trump, I’d say they are as susceptible to right wing populism as every other group, those it’s probably unwise to treat them as a homogeneous group as everyone has their individual reasons for why they vote as they do. People love simplistic answers to complex problems and Trump is as good as anyone else to providing those. Issues like immigration, international trade, the climate emergency, and the size of the state involve trade offs that politicians like Trump pretend don’t exist. I think he’ll be an even bigger disaster than the first time around, I’d have even taken a Tory government over here if it meant a defeat for him..

Just read a different explanation for Trump’s win which I think is worth sharing;

> The current prevailing theory about Trump's victory is that most Americans, irked by an unpleasant encounter with inflation, cast an anti-incumbent vote without giving much thought to the consequences of that vote for US democracy. I don't totally buy this whoops! theory. My sense is that, in this era of the Internet, there are millions more fascists in this country than people think, young men in particular. And I believe that many more millions are fascinated by Trump not for his supposed business prowess but for his transparent wish to hurt others. He is an evil guy, a villain — and many Americans are excited by it. Harris and the Democrats, by contrast, are boring, boring, boring. In this sense, the election was like a choice between four more years of church or four years of violent entertainment.

> Nihilistic consumerism, as much as authoritarianism, prevailed. Of course, political science is not designed to investigate this kind of stuff. The clearest insights we have come from the realm of philosophy and literature. Hannah Arendt and Primo Levi did not rely on focus groups

All of the above theories seem to be united by the fact that they essentially disparage and blame the voters.

The first seems to conclude that they are not especially intelligent people who are therefore susceptible to simplistic "populist" arguments. The second says they're basically a bunch of evil fascists whose numbers have previously been under-estimated. The third seems to imply they are all moral vacuums lost in a haze of consumerist behaviour and instant gratification.

I'm not saying that amongst Trump's voters there were not people of these types, but as you say, they are highly unlikely to be a homogenous whole who all fit the same description.

Two glaring absences from the theories listed above are arguably the most obvious and logical ones: that it was the economy, and a rejection of the progressive obsession with identity politics and 'Woke' culture. Again, these explanations won't fit every voter, but I've certainly heard numerous Trump voters being interviewed and giving these reasons repeatedly.

I suspect that if the Democrats in the aftermath of this election don't look more critically at their own performance and message, but instead go into denial and fall back on the lazy assumption that "the voter was wrong", then they are bound to repeat the same mistakes they've made before. There's an old saying in business that even if the customer is wrong, they're still right, because you can't get anywhere without them.

[upthemaggies]

Two glaring absences from the theories listed above are arguably the most obvious and logical ones: that it was the economy, and a rejection of the progressive obsession with identity politics and 'Woke' culture. Again, these explanations won't fit every voter, but I've certainly heard numerous Trump voters being interviewed and giving these reasons repeatedly.

I'm exaggerating to make the point, but for people who are able to see beyond individual leaders fronting two opposing parties, it would make more sense to vote for somebody with Jimmy Savile vibes who objectively would make life harder for the average nonce in the street than to vote for an Esther Rantzen type figure who has actually made life a whole lot easier for perverts to act with impunity so long as they joyfully express some magic words and wave the magic flag.

As for racism. Encouraging people to perceive criminal behaviour and homicides in black communities as a feature (to be tolerated) and not a defect (to be tackled as you would with any other race) is actual racism in action.

Threatening to freeze people's bank accounts and the loss of their jobs for not wanting to take an experimental gene therapy they don't need is actual fascism.

Freeing domestic abusers and violent criminals from prison to make room for people who write hurty words on X and facebook does not make women and children feel safe.

[Lullapie]

Threatening to freeze people's bank accounts and the loss of their jobs for not wanting to take an experimental gene therapy they don't need is actual fascism.

This was also used to great effectiveness by Justin Trudeau in Ottawa during his Covid mandate battle with Canadians. I tell you, the modern left has gone THAT far left, they have become Fascists.

[Elite_Pie]

The first seems to conclude that they are not especially intelligent people who are therefore susceptible to simplistic "populist" arguments.

I would add being to susceptible to blatant lies as well as populist arguments.

I'm thinking Brexit as an example.

[applepie2]

I would add being to susceptible to blatant lies as well as populist arguments.

I'm thinking Brexit as an example.

The fact is that most people are susceptible to blatant lies. Some on the left have been convinced that men can become women - if you believe that, you'll believe anything. Some on the right have been convinced that Farage cares about anyone other than himself - if you believe that, you'll believe anything. Some Notts supporters believe that we're bound get promoted this season if our manager is any good - if you believe that, you'll believe anything.

[Elite_Pie]

Some on the left have been convinced that men can become women - if you believe that, you'll believe anything.

Never believed that.

Some on the right have been convinced that Farage cares about anyone other than himself - if you believe that, you'll believe anything.

Never believed that in the slightest.

Some Notts supporters believe that we're bound get promoted this season if our manager is any good - if you believe that, you'll believe anything.

I really want to believe that, but I'm still on the fence.

[Lullapie]

I would add being to susceptible to blatant lies as well as populist arguments.

I'm thinking Brexit as an example.

You see, there is misinformation from both sides, but the left claim that only the right are doing it. It's a ploy to suppress freedom of speech.

Trump spoke about Fake News in 2016 and he has definitely been a massive victim of this ever since. He'd make a 30 minute long speech and next minute a segment of it is all over the mainstream media, pulling one sentence out from his speech saying how everyone should be fearful because he wants to destroy the world - crazy.




Once they get you thinking that the right is spreading lies, then the next step is for the government to tell you, to only believe what they tell you and listen to nobody else.

That would never happen would it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PogISFr5Hg0

[magpie_mania]

You see, there is misinformation from both sides, but the left claim that only the right are doing it. It's a ploy to suppress freedom of speech.

Trump spoke about Fake News in 2016 and he has definitely been a massive victim of this ever since. He'd make a 30 minute long speech and next minute a segment of it is all over the mainstream media, pulling one sentence out from his speech saying how everyone should be fearful because he wants to destroy the world - crazy.




Once they get you thinking that the right is spreading lies, then the next step is for the government to tell you, to only believe what they tell you and listen to nobody else.

That would never happen would it?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PogISFr5Hg0

I am not bothered about left and right especially when used only as a derogatory term for someone who doesn’t agree with you.

I am bothered about truth though which seems in short supply today.

[Lullapie]

I am not bothered about left and right especially when used only as a derogatory term for someone who doesn’t agree with you.

I am bothered about truth though which seems in short supply today.

There was a theme during the US Election, touted by the Republicans. I'm not sure if you heard it or even saw it, but the theme was that it used to be that if someone tried something and failed, you picked yourself up, dust yourself down and got on with it. The Republicans said that the current climate was that if you failed, it wasn't through lack of experience or mistakes that you made, it was because you were a victim. You had the right to feel aggrieved with someone else, be it or person or something that had happened in history because it was THEIR fault not yours.

There were no derogatory terms used, I was pointing out why the world is moving to the right and why those that hang on to their outdated doctrines have been left behind.



What truth are you missing anyway? I don't understand your comment.

You also have obviously read what I wrote but ignored the question I asked directly to you. Was it too complicated or are you citing the fifth?

Do you believe that an individual using their position of power to authorise the murder of someone, is reason for them to be prosecuted? Yes or no answer please.

[magpie_mania]

There was a theme during the US Election, touted by the Republicans. I'm not sure if you heard it or even saw it, but the theme was that it used to be that if try something and fail, you picked yourself up, dusted yourself down and got on with it. The Republicans said that the current climate was that if you failed, it wasn't through lack of experience or mistakes that you made, it was because you were a victim. You had the right to feel aggrieved with someone else, be it or person or something that had happened in history because it was THEIR fault not yours.

There were no derogatory terms used, I was pointing out why the world is moving to the right and why those that hang on to their outdated doctrines have been left behind.



What truth are you missing anyway? I don't understand your comment.

You also have obviously read what I wrote but ignored the question I asked directly to you. Was it too complicated or are you sighting the fifth?

Do you believe that an individual using their position of power to authorise the murder of someone, is reason for them to be prosecuted? Yes or no answer please.

I did not ignore the question.