O/T:- Betting odds for US Election [The USA Politics Thread]

[Elite_Pie]

Yeah, I was expecting the usual, "So you're condoning what Trump did then?" reply, followed by a list of reasons why Biden's child-sniffing and girl-groping was taken out of context and how he actually isn't a complete creep.

I wouldn't say you're condoning what Trump has done, but you appear to be trying to mitigate it on the grounds that some Democrats have done wrong as well. Even if Biden turns out to be the biggest pervert in politics, it doesn't alter what Trump has done.

[upthemaggies]

I wouldn't say you're condoning what Trump has done, but you appear to be trying to mitigate it on the grounds that some Democrats have done wrong as well. Even if Biden turns out to be the biggest pervert in politics, it doesn't alter what Trump has done.

It doesn't alter the fact either that MSM and the left's whole schtick for the past 8 years was to claim the moral high ground at all times whilst totally ignoring Biden's extremely disturbing behaviour which has been caught on multiple occasions on camera and shared on social media for years, yet the MSM have said nothing. See also his son's laptop story.

The major takeaway from the fall out of his final debate with Trump was that a very sizeable amount of Democrats, possibly even a majority, had no idea that his mental capacity was significantly compromised, again because MSM said nothing, whilst anybody who wasn't in that echo chamber had been raising the alarm for at least 18 months prior.

[Elite_Pie]

It doesn't alter the fact either that MSM and the left's whole schtick for the past 8 years was to claim the moral high ground at all times whilst totally ignoring Biden's extremely disturbing behaviour which has been caught on multiple occasions on camera and shared on social media for years, yet the MSM have said nothing. See also his son's laptop story.

The major takeaway from the fall out of his final debate with Trump was that a very sizeable amount of Democrats, possibly even a majority, had no idea that his mental capacity was significantly compromised, again because MSM said nothing, whilst anybody who wasn't in that echo chamber had been raising the alarm for at least 18 months prior.

All you say could be right, but I'll repeat the last few words of my previous post:

It doesn't alter what Trump has done.

[upthemaggies]

All you say could be right, but I'll repeat the last few words of my previous post:

It doesn't alter what Trump has done.

That's only going to matter to people who want to be seen publicly as - and/or to reassure themselves that - they are "good, kind" people.

Put it this way. If I have a leaking pipe upstairs and I've got three inches of water flooding my kitchen, I don't care if my plumber has done time in prison for x,y or z, I just want him to do the job I'm paying him to do and "thank you very much, have a good day". I'm not going to sit around worrying "could I be friends with this person?", "What would my chat group think of me giving this guy work?", "Would I trust this person to be alone with my daughter for 30 seconds in a lift?", "Is he going to misgender my cat?"

Whether or not Trump is going to actually do the job that people who voted for his team expect, that is another issue altogether. I'm not confident he will, or will be allowed to.

[magpie_mania]

That's only going to matter to people who want to be seen publicly as - and/or to reassure themselves that - they are "good, kind" people.

Put it this way. If I have a leaking pipe upstairs and I've got three inches of water flooding my kitchen, I don't care if my plumber has done time in prison for x,y or z, I just want him to do the job I'm paying him to do and "thank you very much, have a good day". I'm not going to sit around worrying "could I be friends with this person?", "What would my chat group think of me giving this guy work?", "Would I trust this person to be alone with my daughter for 30 seconds in a lift?", "Is he going to misgender my cat?"

Whether or not Trump is going to actually do the job that people who voted for his team expect, that is another issue altogether. I'm not confident he will, or will be allowed to.

I think there is quite a difference between a plumber and the President of the USA. He should be leading by example imo, not someone for whom lying comes as second nature.

[Elite_Pie]

Put it this way. If I have a leaking pipe upstairs and I've got three inches of water flooding my kitchen, I don't care if my plumber has done time in prison for x,y or z, I just want him to do the job I'm paying him to do and "thank you very much, have a good day". I'm not going to sit around worrying "could I be friends with this person?", "What would my chat group think of me giving this guy work?", "Would I trust this person to be alone with my daughter for 30 seconds in a lift?", "Is he going to misgender my cat?"

Exactly what I would do. I would take the selfish option of getting the job done at the lowest price. It wouldn't be a moral issue at all, just stop the bloody leak! But getting a plumber in an emergency is a bit different to voting for someone to decide your future and your families future for the next few years. Given my age and circumstances, I should be a typical Tory (Republican) voter, but my rather shallow morals still won't allow me.

[upthemaggies]

Exactly what I would do. I would take the selfish option of getting the job done at the lowest price. It wouldn't be a moral issue at all, just stop the bloody leak! But getting a plumber in an emergency is a bit different to voting for someone to decide your future and your families future for the next few years. Given my age and circumstances, I should be a typical Tory (Republican) voter, but my rather shallow morals still won't allow me.

Taken that to it's logical conclusion, it's the Caitlin Jenner dilemma. If anybody doesn't know what that is...... When Google's AI service was asked if it would be OK to misgender trans woman Caitlin Jenner if it was the only way to avoid nuclear apocalypse, it replied that this would "never" be acceptable.

The most important thing for me, in the sort term, is that we don't escalate the risk of Nuclear war, 2nd is defending free speech and 3rd is taking down big pharma. If John Wayne Gacy was fronting a team against the Dems on that promise, I'd have been hoping he won.

[Jampie]

Well so long as we're being logical...

Being meek in the face of Russia's nuclear bluster doesn't reduce the risk of nuclear war. It guarantees more nuclear threats and therefore continued risk of escalation, and not only from Russia. China's watching. North Korea's watching. Iran is watching (although they still don't have a device). If making nuclear threats means the West backs down and you can attack anybody you like, there will be more nuclear threats.

Raising tariffs on imports will immediately cause inflation. There will be retaliatory tariffs (there always are) which will harm US exports. Trump has no economic plan whatsoever beyond Tariffs, to date, so I don't see what people voting for him think is going to happen. Inflation is currently back under control in the US although wages haven't anywhere near caught up. Nothing Trump is proposing will achieve that, though, and indeed his ideas are guaranteed to make the situation worse.

[drillerpie]

Well so long as we're being logical...

Being meek in the face of Russia's nuclear bluster doesn't reduce the risk of nuclear war. It guarantees more nuclear threats and therefore continued risk of escalation, and not only from Russia. China's watching. North Korea's watching. Iran is watching (although they still don't have a device). If making nuclear threats means the West backs down and you can attack anybody you like, there will be more nuclear threats.

Raising tariffs on imports will immediately cause inflation. There will be retaliatory tariffs (there always are) which will harm US exports. Trump has no economic plan whatsoever beyond Tariffs, to date, so I don't see what people voting for him think is going to happen. Inflation is currently back under control in the US although wages haven't anywhere near caught up. Nothing Trump is proposing will achieve that, though, and indeed his ideas are guaranteed to make the situation worse.

Completely agree with you about the first point. Empirically, American isolationism does not lead to peace in the world. In fact it generally leads to the opposite, but it looks like we are about to run that experiment again, only this time with a new feature of the nuclear card which if played often enough will persuade people to turn a blind eye to wars of territorial expansion.

It's like we've been transported back 100 years to the time when the League of Nations was falling apart because nobody wanted to uphold the rules, only this time with the worry that we are about to enter a new era of nuclear proliferation and even worse, nuclear brinkmanship. I wonder who this century's Ethiopia, Manchuria and Czechoslovakia will be.

But to be honest, I have become very disillusioned with the current US policy on Ukraine. The Biden administration has thoroughly failed to deter various adversaries and even failed to deter an ally like Israel from doing exactly what they want. If you say every day that your main goal is to avoid escalation, cynical operators will explore that. Having the goal of avoiding escalation is a good thing, but announcing that is your goal all the time and removing any threat of consequences is pretty pointless. I'm sceptical, but I'm keeping an open mind that Trump might at least bring some wild card energy that will make Putin think he risks some consequences. At the moment we are just doing enough to help Ukraine lose slowly, and I don't see the point in that.

Re: the second point, again I generally agree but Trump's deportation idea (should he carry it out) will in theory put upwards pressure on wages. That will also increase inflation so I'm not sure how that will pan out or how long he will persevere with it. Or maybe he will and that's why he's pre-emptively getting interested in crypto.

[Jampie]

I'm frustrated with the entire west's "backing" of Ukraine and agree, roughly, with your assessment, although "losing slowly" is kind of underestimating the "slowly" part. Russia's rate of advance would embarrass a WWI general at the moment, as would the cost in lives and material of said advance.

But the west's strategy, assuming it actually has a coherent one, appears to be to bleed Russia indefinitely with the war. I kinda hate that strategy on ethical grounds but I can't deny that it's working, and is likely to deter adventurous dictators so long as it's maintained. I don't see Israel's activities as relevant to the discussion really. A very different situation since I don't think they have any plan to keep Gaza and the land has negative strategic value for them.

And assuming that is the strategy, I do think it likely Trump will disrupt it to the detriment of everyone but Putin. Being pro-putin is one of the few things he's actually consistent about.