O/T:- Trump Presidency 2.0 [hic sunt dracones]

[Med Pie]

I disagree with Elite on many things (and agree on some) but he is certainly not a bully.

He's arguably the biggest troll on the forum, what is that if not bullying?

Admittedly, he's not as omnipresent as he used to be.

[Med Pie]

Did someone you were sat with at a table tell you that?

Both you and SinceSept1959 have an uncanny knack of repeatedly guessing wrong!

You're clearly giving my tale legs.

[slack_pie]

His actions and claims are evidence he doesn't understand their long term impacts. If you can find a credible economist who agrees with Trump's stance on tariffs I am quite willing to read their views and discuss it.

I don't think there's anything extraordinary about my understanding of tariffs, rather that Trump is uniquely disinterested in economics for a guy in charge of the world's largest economy. This is not a left/right issue for me. I can't think of a republican president even close to his "league" when it comes to economic ignorance. Or ignorance on any number of topics.

I know next to nothing about all this, but isn't Trump using tariffs to strongarm other countries into doing what he wants them to do? For example, manning the border and stopping illegal immigrants and fentanyl from crossing into the US. Once they submit, he agrees to postpone the sanctions while further negotiations take place.

From what I can see, that strategy has been effective so far - at least in some cases.

[Jampie]

I know next to nothing about all this, but isn't Trump using tariffs to strongarm other countries into doing what he wants them to do? For example, manning the border and stopping illegal immigrants and fentanyl from crossing into the US. Once they submit, he agrees to postpone the sanctions while further negotiations take place.

From what I can see, that strategy has been effective so far - at least in some cases.

I do not for a moment pretend to know what Trump's "strategy" is, although I am certain his supporters will ascribe any and all of his wild direction changes to be strategic in nature and part of a vast plan of some kind.

I am sure Canada and Mexico are happy to stave off economic damage (for all three nations including the US) in exchange for Trump and his supporters claiming esoteric victory on some manufactured front, confident that the media machine will roll onto whatever nonsense Trump sprouts tomorrow and they can go on with their lives less scathed than whoever maintains the circus next.

But I don't see this working so well with China. Xi is no fool and has his own need to appear the strong-man.

[Med Pie]

I know next to nothing about all this, but isn't Trump using tariffs to strongarm other countries into doing what he wants them to do? For example, manning the border and stopping illegal immigrants and fentanyl from crossing into the US. Once they submit, he agrees to postpone the sanctions while further negotiations take place.

From what I can see, that strategy has been effective so far - at least in some cases.

Unlike the UK government who keep throwing money at people, the latest example being the money to 'up-skill' people in Tunisia so they are more employable and less likely to move to the UK. They've also thrown a million quid at removing illegal immigrants from Tunisia!

[slack_pie]

I do not for a moment pretend to know what Trump's "strategy" is, although I am certain his supporters will ascribe any and all of his wild direction changes to be strategic in nature and part of a vast plan of some kind.

I am sure Canada and Mexico are happy to stave off economic damage (for all three nations including the US) in exchange for Trump and his supporters claiming esoteric victory on some manufactured front, confident that the media machine will roll onto whatever nonsense Trump sprouts tomorrow and they can go on with their lives less scathed than whoever maintains the circus next.

But I don't see this working so well with China. Xi is no fool and has his own need to appear the strong-man.

I'm not a Trump supporter, but it seems pretty obvious to me that that was his plan. He got what he wanted through the threat of tariffs. This isn't a novel approach. Leaders use leverage all the time. I agree that it won't work with Xi, who is a much smarter and more wily adversary, but it seems to have worked with Mexico.

What you say about Trump supporters is largely true. But the same goes for those on the other side as well. People on the left will ignore anything positive that comes out of the Trump presidency, or spin stuff to make it look worse. Both sides do this all the time, so let's not pretend otherwise.

[Elite_Pie]

You're clearly giving my tale legs.

A table without legs is called a board.

[Elite_Pie]

He's arguably the biggest troll on the forum, what is that if not bullying?

I think you need to look up the definitions of 'forum troll' and 'bullying'.

You don't seem to understand either.

Admittedly, he's not as omnipresent as he used to be.

How would you know? You've only been on here 6 months! Unless of course you were banned and have come back under a new username, which would explain a lot.

[drillerpie]

I'm not a Trump supporter, but it seems pretty obvious to me that that was his plan. He got what he wanted through the threat of tariffs. This isn't a novel approach. Leaders use leverage all the time. I agree that it won't work with Xi, who is a much smarter and more wily adversary, but it seems to have worked with Mexico.

What you say about Trump supporters is largely true. But the same goes for those on the other side as well. People on the left will ignore anything positive that comes out of the Trump presidency, or spin stuff to make it look worse. Both sides do this all the time, so let's not pretend otherwise.

Like you are bot a Trump supoorter I am not a die hard anti Trumper. By that I mean I think he is an awful person to have in a position of power but his chaos theory management of situations and willingness to say things against the grain can be and have been useful. I also agree that governments often use leverage over each other. What we often call diplomacy, which sounds like a nice friendly chat, is often a euphemism for an exchange of threats and favours.

I think what separates the Trump administration from others is the theatre of it all. He runs his government like a reality TV show. Can you remember North Korea missile testing a few years ago? One minute he was threatening to bomb them back to the stone age, the next he was doing a summit in front of the world's cameras and saving the world. IMO the exact same result would normally have been achieved, but away from public view.

The concessions he has gained from his tariffs (which were announced then postponed then reannounced on a Friday for a Tuesday, probably to give his ITK friends time to short the S&P 500 before it was all walked back) are very limited. Trump 1.0 obtained a Mexico troop deployment, as did Biden in 2021 (without the theatre). For his part Trump ceded a promise to stop the flow of weapons from the US to Mexico. The bulk of what Canada 'conceded' was already announced under Biden in December 2024.

Nothing that any of the three countries have conceded or gained is particularly unusual or significant, as far as I can tell. The reason for doing it like this could be to keep the Trump show in the news because that's the way he likes it, or just to throw some red meat to the Lullapies of the world who want to see the strong man WINNING!, or for some other reason we don't know yet.

Mexico troops deployments under Biden: https://www.reuters.com/world/americ...al-2021-04-12/

Canada border security and Fentanyl disruption initiatives from Dec 2024: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-safe...on-system.html

[i961pie]

"In response to 10 per cent tariffs on all Chinese imports into the United States, China has hit back with a 15 per cent tariff on selected US imports into China."

ABC (australia) headline just now.

Who could possibly have predicted this!?!?! Oh yeah, every single economist did. This will harm the economies of all nations involved and given the size of those economies and their importance to global trade, it will cause a slowdown effect on the global economy. Again, this isn't my analysis it's what literally every economist I've seen weigh in has said would happen.

I think the key word is selected. It will be interesting to see what China does because it exports far more goods to
America than it imports from them.