Election Year or Fear!

[Geoff Parkstone]

I see Reform UK are blaming ‘woke progressives’ (consider the opposite of that for a moment ), ‘sectarianism’ and ‘family voting’ for their failure in Gorton and Denton.
Family voting? I’m sure the Johnson and Rees Mogg families are riddled with Labour supporters and the Trump offspring are all free to vote Democrat.
Apparently, according to NF, there was ‘cheating’ going on. Now where have we heard that before?

Its interesting to see the Starmer / Labour voters gleefully mocking Refrom for only finishing second yet seemingly unconcerned that they themselves lost about half of their own vote and finished third, losing a seat that had been staunchly labour for 100 years or more.

They should be concerned about their own performance and particularly the popularity of their own leadership rather than rejoicing in the failure of one party who currently have but a few MPs despite their recent naming of a "shadow cabinet".

As is probably vaguely known to some here I'm no fan of Starmer and once again here we see his ability to alienate both left and right. To come third to two parties with a collective handful of standing MPs in a staunch labour consituency surely must be another nail in his personal coffin - the party may have a substantial parliamentary majority but must take note of what the ;ocal electorate think of the performance of "top management". Its clearly not all about immigration (which a large Reform win would have suggested) but its a disaffection with hapless leadership. To use an rA favoured phrase their reaction is all about deflection by labour

Now despite all that I dont think it would be good for the country if KS were to stand down at this point - this may lead to another Truss type moment which cost the country dear. Labour strategy must be to drift left to seek to recover support back from the green protest vote: its not going to drift right to gain some of the reform support. Can Starmer manage that? Its a conflict for sure - the party may need a left drift but Im not sure that the country do: but will the party come first?

[ramAnag]

Its interesting to see the Starmer / Labour voters gleefully mocking Refrom for only finishing second yet seemingly unconcerned that they themselves lost about half of their own vote and finished third, losing a seat that had been staunchly labour for 100 years or more.

They should be concerned about their own performance and particularly the popularity of their own leadership rather than rejoicing in the failure of one party who currently have but a few MPs despite their recent naming of a "shadow cabinet".

As is probably vaguely known to some here I'm no fan of Starmer and once again here we see his ability to alienate both left and right. To come third to two parties with a collective handful of standing MPs in a staunch labour consituency surely must be another nail in his personal coffin - the party may have a substantial parliamentary majority but must take note of what the ;ocal electorate think of the performance of "top management". Its clearly not all about immigration (which a large Reform win would have suggested) but its a disaffection with hapless leadership. To use an rA favoured phrase their reaction is all about deflection by labour

Now despite all that I dont think it would be good for the country if KS were to stand down at this point - this may lead to another Truss type moment which cost the country dear. Labour strategy must be to drift left to seek to recover support back from the green protest vote: its not going to drift right to gain some of the reform support. Can Starmer manage that? Its a conflict for sure - the party may need a left drift but Im not sure that the country do: but will the party come first?

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they’d been berating Starmer and it’s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ‘big thing’ when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don’t recall ever using the phrase ‘defection by Labour’, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

[ramAnag]

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they?d been berating Starmer and it?s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ?big thing? when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don?t recall ever using the phrase ?defection by Labour?, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

Sorry, ‘deflection’, NOT ‘defection’…that’s the Tories.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they’d been berating Starmer and it’s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ‘big thing’ when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don’t recall ever using the phrase ‘defection by Labour’, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

Deflection not defection (nor defecation even)!! Deflection being one of your favoured expressions here when challenged. I guess you need to look harder to see the labour support deflecting to point to Reform's failings - but if you dont want to see them you wont.

[ramAnag]

Deflection not defection (nor defecation even)!! Deflection being one of your favoured expressions here when challenged. I guess you need to look harder to see the labour support deflecting to point to Reform's failings - but if you dont want to see them you wont.

Ah, sorry, you initially referred to a ‘phrase’, not a word. Hence my confusion.

Yes, I have referred to people, usually TTR, ‘deflecting’ and I am aware of Labour’s ‘failings’. If you want to talk about ‘defection’ however, well that seems to be more of a Tory problem and I guess your mention of ‘defecation’ should be reserved for the sh1t show that RUK are rapidly becoming.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Ah, sorry, you initially referred to a ‘phrase’, not a word. Hence my confusion.

Yes, I have referred to people, usually TTR, ‘deflecting’ and I am aware of Labour’s ‘failings’. If you want to talk about ‘defection’ however, well that seems to be more of a Tory problem and I guess your mention of ‘defecation’ should be reserved for the sh1t show that RUK are rapidly becoming.

I have, as is my wont, looked at a few numbers comparing the by-election to the 2024 general election (before then the constituency boundaries changed but then it was an even stronger labour stronghold)

The by-election turnout and the 2024 GE turnout were almost identical (+/- 250). The general election showed a Lab majority over reform of 13400 and 13800 over Green; the bye election showed a Green majority over Lab of 5600.

the general election result was somewhat bent out of shape by there being a split vote following George Galloway defection from Labour and running a Workers Party candidate who picked up 3800 votes presumably from Lab, whose majority likely would have been 17000 or so without the split.

So, and this is where we need to assume a bit, I imagine the 2200 decline in Tory vote went to Reform and the fall in LibDem vote went Green, as did the Workers Party vote (althought this is debatable, may have gone Lab)

So this leaves a reduction in Labour vote of 9200 - approx 500 to the fringe parties, 3300 to Reform and 5400 to Green. Both swings are protest votes against Lab altough quite likely the swing to Green was more tactical to ensure the collapsing Labour vote didnt lead to a Reform win?

So was it a disaster for Reform? They appear to have taken 3300 votes off a Labour vote which triggered a chunk of tactical voting to Green in anticipation of a Labour defeat. But had a little over half of those 5400 that may have been tactically voting Green to block Reform remained loyal to Labour, guess what?? Labour would have won by a slim majority.

Can I have a job as a Starmer spin doctor please

[swaledale]

I have, as is my wont, looked at a few numbers comparing the by-election to the 2024 general election (before then the constituency boundaries changed but then it was an even stronger labour stronghold)

The by-election turnout and the 2024 GE turnout were almost identical (+/- 250). The general election showed a Lab majority over reform of 13400 and 13800 over Green; the bye election showed a Green majority over Lab of 5600.

the general election result was somewhat bent out of shape by there being a split vote following George Galloway defection from Labour and running a Workers Party candidate who picked up 3800 votes presumably from Lab, whose majority likely would have been 17000 or so without the split.

So, and this is where we need to assume a bit, I imagine the 2200 decline in Tory vote went to Reform and the fall in LibDem vote went Green, as did the Workers Party vote (althought this is debatable, may have gone Lab)

So this leaves a reduction in Labour vote of 9200 - approx 500 to the fringe parties, 3300 to Reform and 5400 to Green. Both swings are protest votes against Lab altough quite likely the swing to Green was more tactical to ensure the collapsing Labour vote didnt lead to a Reform win?

So was it a disaster for Reform? They appear to have taken 3300 votes off a Labour vote which triggered a chunk of tactical voting to Green in anticipation of a Labour defeat. But had a little over half of those 5400 that may have been tactically voting Green to block Reform remained loyal to Labour, guess what?? Labour would have won by a slim majority.

Can I have a job as a Starmer spin doctor please

Nah your too charismatic!

[swaledale]

Have they been gleefully mocking? I thought they’d been berating Starmer and it’s been staunchly Labour for 95 years.

Of course Labour should be concerned, but you have to see it in the context of RUK seeing themselves as the next ‘big thing’ when actually the new girl on the block has thrashed them so that they actually won less than 29% of the vote, albeit probably with the help of tactical voting.

I don’t recall ever using the phrase ‘defection by Labour’, but while I personally may welcome a realistic shift to the left, Starmer has to try and balance things in the interest of, eventually, having a broader appeal at the next election.

Starmer's intial response is more that of a "middle management" wonk rather than a leader of a party that has been given an indication by the voters that they don't like his and labours efforts to date. Doesn't bode well for the future of Labour IMO.

What this result does show is that there are more "progressive" voters in the Uk than those attracted to Reform's narrow right wing populism. Though one does of course need to be wary of interpreting too much from one byelection, although the pattern was similar in the Welsh byelection where Plaid Cymru triumphed.