Election Year or Fear!

[Geoff Parkstone]

What RA did point out, was that of the circa 77,000 who voted, the majority voted for left leaning parties and not Reform. Which whilst one needs to be wary of taking too much evidence from a byelection, does indicate that this theme that the "silent" majority are in favour of Reform's rhetoric and BS is perhaps not true.

So how you came to the conclusion that RA was abusing statistics is odd, perhaps you didn't read his post proeprly before responding?

Au contraire, on the matter of reading what rA wrote I fear you havent. He referred to of the 77,00 that COULD have voted, ie the constituency voting public, not those who actually did. Actually about 36,800 voted. He took comfort in in his conclusion that just 13.8% of the people who could have voted, voted for right leaning candidates.

In order to derive the 13.8% that he he took comfort in, he of course assumed that none of the non voters (over 50% of the total constituency, as the turnout was 45.2%) would have voted Tory or Reform. That is what I mean by abuse of statistics. Thats something of a stretch - and just like his view on the Brexit vote, you cannot assume that the non voters would vote the way you want them to vote in drawing conclusions. More realistic to assume that the non voters' leanings would mirror the balance of those that did vote, but that too os potentially flawed.

Absolutely the left leaning parties received more votes than the right leaning by some way, but my issue isn't that - in this constituency with its demographic and election history, it would be a minor miracle to see any other outcome - but my issue was with his 13.8% and the nonsensical conclusion he drew about total percentage support for right leaning parties.

At the last general election there was an approximate 60% turnout, of which Labour gained 33.7% votes cast. Thus Labour gained 20.1% of the available votes, alongside a landslide FPP victory. Applying his abuse of statistics rA would conclude Labour had no mandate to govern, yet clearly they do have one.....


Anyway this is a rerun of the tiresome Brexit argument that the majority of the people didnt want Brexit. That was fallacious in that context and his conclusion here is just as fallacious. ironically I suspect that today a majority would be against Brexit had the debate been held 10 years on.