For clarity therefore I was referring to the supply/demand dynamics for the tanker capacity, and frankly noone can really do anything but take an educated guess as to how those dynamics will move it such a volatile geopolitical environment. My logic was that if regime change is achieved and Iranian oil ceases to be sanctioned, then there wouls be an oversupply of tanker capacity in the market leading to feight rate pricing falling as there isnt enough demand for that surplus capacity.

Of course this depends on whether the conventional tanker markets and charterers accept the dark fleet back into the fold or not. If so there will be an oversupply, a drop in demand and freight rates will fall leading to probems for tanker owners funding expensive new buildings. Alternatively a lot of the dark fleet may be scrapped or owners ostracised. Insurance markets may not readmit former dark vessels into the clubs, but underwriters are always after new business regardless of history.

I have no idea how things may evolve otherwise I'd be buying or selling freight rate futures !! So youre just as likely right as I am, or more likely we are both wrong. But either way geopoltical twists and turns since Marinakis fundraise (which is where we started) have/will make him either seem a genius or a fool!

My understanding of the Chinese oil importing process is that they blended the heavier Venezuelan crude with the lighter Iranian crude in their large ship parks off Singapore before transhipping them to the teapots in Shandong, so it seems likely that they need a bit of both to make their processing work most effectively. that said iran produces both light and heavy so the desire for venezuelan crude may be price driven mainly.