The Rams Survive - the stats confirm it

[Ramshank72]

I fancy us to survive, we just need to keep up the battle. Curiously, I worry that a takeover, whilst a positive, might make people nervous and spur a bad run, but I think we'll be close.

[macstheman]

I agree Ramshank but with more sanctions likely and the Mafioso looking for every opportunity to chuck a few hand grenades in our direction we will have to dig a few trenches. Turning these draws into wins is imperative because there's always a bad run lurking!

[Andy_Faber]

Derbys survivability calculated after 14 games, based on last five games form

17th Peterborough 1.4 points = 44.8 points + 14 points = 58.8 points
18th Preston 1.0 points = 32 points + 15 points = 47 points
19th Birmingham .8 points = 25.6 points +16 points = 41.6 points
20th Derby: 1.4 points = 44.8 points + 5 points -9 points = 40.8 points
21st Bristol City .6 points = 19.2 points +16 points = 35.2points
22nd Hull .8 points = 25.6 points +9 points = 34.6 points
23rd Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points
24th Barnsley 0 points = 0 points + 8 points = 8 points

COYR!

[MadAmster]

The bottom 5 based on current points won extrapolated over the season is .....

20. Peterborough 46
21. Derby 56 -12 = 44
22. Cardiff 36
23. Hull 30
24. Barnsley 26

Get docked another 9 and we struggle.

[swaledale]

The bottom 5 based on current points won extrapolated over the season is .....

20. Peterborough 46
21. Derby 56 -12 = 44
22. Cardiff 36
23. Hull 30
24. Barnsley 26

Get docked another 9 and we struggle.

Unless we can string together some wins we are doomed!

[ramAnag]

There’s lies, damned lies and statistics. But after a business lifetime taking on The Man using stats to support my position, IMO they tell the truth more than they deceive.

I’ll be recasting this after every ‘round’ of games whether you like it or not and yes it will ebb and flow through the season but to put my money where my mouth is I’ll slip into honest Joes on Monday and pop a tenner on it

Are we to assume that the absence of any ‘recasting’ since October 24th means you’ve ‘recast’ your view on statistics ‘telling the truth’ and reclaimed your tenner?

[Andy_Faber]

Are we to assume that the absence of any ‘recasting’ since October 24th means you’ve ‘recast’ your view on statistics ‘telling the truth’ and reclaimed your tenner?

Stats ALWAYS tell the truth, I've been busy

[MadAmster]

Stats ALWAYS tell the truth

.... but less so than lies and damned lies

[ramAnag]

Stats ALWAYS tell the truth, I've been busy

Well...aside from such factors as faulty polling, flawed correlations, selective bias, unsuitably small sample size and misleading data visualisation...you might be right.
Be interesting to see how your ‘stats’ based forecast of 2nd October holds up. Much as I’d love it to...it’s not looking great at the moment.

[Andy_Faber]

My computations are still looking good - based on every team's last SIX games form (and that includes our last loss) we survive (on the pitch) easily, finishing four****th. We also survive based on our form every week but one going right back to our first points being declared in admin