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Thread: The Rams Survive - the stats confirm it

  1. #1
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    The Rams Survive - the stats confirm it

    There’s lies, damned lies and statistics. But after a business lifetime taking on The Man using stats to support my position, IMO they tell the truth more than they deceive.

    And so to The Rams and their chances of survival

    Below is a forecast, based on results since Derby’s -12 pointer, of the end of season points total of the bottom 8, extrapolated over the rest of the season. For prudence I’ve reduced Derby’s outcome by a further 9 points to account for further EFL attempts to sink us.

    And on that basis, we survive with no less than FIVE teams below us (but unfortunately Forest champions or more hopefully heading for a defeat in the playoffs)

    I’ll be recasting this after every ‘round’ of games whether you like it or not and yes it will ebb and flow through the season but to put my money where my mouth is I’ll slip into honest Joes on Monday and pop a tenner on it

    COYRS!

    Derby: 1.75 per game = 61.25 points + 2 points = 63.25 points - 9 points = 54.25 points

    Peterborough 1 point per game = 35 points + 8 points = 43 points

    Barnsley .25 points per game = 8.75 points + 8 points = 16.75 points

    Hull City 1 point per game = 35 points + 9 points = 44 points

    Cardiff 0 points per game = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points

    Swansea 1.25 points per game = 43.75 points + 11 points = 54.75 points

    Preston .75 points = 26.25 points + 11 points = 37.25 points

    Forest 2.25 points = 78.75 points +11 points = 89.75 points regrettably

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    There’s lies, damned lies and statistics. But after a business lifetime taking on The Man using stats to support my position, IMO they tell the truth more than they deceive.

    And so to The Rams and their chances of survival

    Below is a forecast, based on results since Derby’s -12 pointer, of the end of season points total of the bottom 8, extrapolated over the rest of the season. For prudence I’ve reduced Derby’s outcome by a further 9 points to account for further EFL attempts to sink us.

    And on that basis, we survive with no less than FIVE teams below us (but unfortunately Forest champions or more hopefully heading for a defeat in the playoffs)

    I’ll be recasting this after every ‘round’ of games whether you like it or not and yes it will ebb and flow through the season but to put my money where my mouth is I’ll slip into honest Joes on Monday and pop a tenner on it

    COYRS!

    Derby: 1.75 per game = 61.25 points + 2 points = 63.25 points - 9 points = 54.25 points

    Peterborough 1 point per game = 35 points + 8 points = 43 points

    Barnsley .25 points per game = 8.75 points + 8 points = 16.75 points

    Hull City 1 point per game = 35 points + 9 points = 44 points

    Cardiff 0 points per game = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points

    Swansea 1.25 points per game = 43.75 points + 11 points = 54.75 points

    Preston .75 points = 26.25 points + 11 points = 37.25 points

    Forest 2.25 points = 78.75 points +11 points = 89.75 points regrettably
    Only thing you're missing from that, is the squad size/restrictions.
    It's just turned October. Injuries/suspensions/loss of form/drink driving(ooooops) / no transfers have yet to have an impact.
    So ebb and flow as you call it, could be low tide or Tsunami yet.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Trickytreesreds View Post
    Only thing you're missing from that, is the squad size/restrictions.
    It's just turned October. Injuries/suspensions/loss of form/drink driving(ooooops) / no transfers have yet to have an impact.
    So ebb and flow as you call it, could be low tide or Tsunami yet.
    That’s why I said it was a forecast not a prediction

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    That’s why I said it was a forecast not a prediction
    Yep, why the very mention of forecast is something folks lose their **** over.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi1a5Tbw77E

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    There’s lies, damned lies and statistics. But after a business lifetime taking on The Man using stats to support my position, IMO they tell the truth more than they deceive.

    And so to The Rams and their chances of survival

    Below is a forecast, based on results since Derby’s -12 pointer, of the end of season points total of the bottom 8, extrapolated over the rest of the season. For prudence I’ve reduced Derby’s outcome by a further 9 points to account for further EFL attempts to sink us.

    And on that basis, we survive with no less than FIVE teams below us (but unfortunately Forest champions or more hopefully heading for a defeat in the playoffs)

    I’ll be recasting this after every ‘round’ of games whether you like it or not and yes it will ebb and flow through the season but to put my money where my mouth is I’ll slip into honest Joes on Monday and pop a tenner on it

    COYRS!

    Derby: 1.75 per game = 61.25 points + 2 points = 63.25 points - 9 points = 54.25 points

    Peterborough 1 point per game = 35 points + 8 points = 43 points

    Barnsley .25 points per game = 8.75 points + 8 points = 16.75 points

    Hull City 1 point per game = 35 points + 9 points = 44 points

    Cardiff 0 points per game = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points

    Swansea 1.25 points per game = 43.75 points + 11 points = 54.75 points

    Preston .75 points = 26.25 points + 11 points = 37.25 points

    Forest 2.25 points = 78.75 points +11 points = 89.75 points regrettably
    Hmmm...love you to be right, but the last time you told us you were putting a tenner on something it was for a this season repeat of 2014 against Forest. How did that work out?

    Tricky also, for once, has a strong case regarding squad size and suspensions, but we’ll see. Suspect it will actually be another case of ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’ but it’d be nice if you were right. There’s always a first time.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by ramAnag View Post
    Hmmm...love you to be right, but the last time you told us you were putting a tenner on something it was for a this season repeat of 2014 against Forest. How did that work out?

    Tricky also, for once, has a strong case regarding squad size and suspensions, but we’ll see. Suspect it will actually be another case of ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’ but it’d be nice if you were right. There’s always a first time.
    Hmm yes you have a point on the Forest bet. However that was hope and this is science

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy_Faber View Post
    Hmm yes you have a point on the Forest bet. However that was hope and this is science
    Lol...‘science’! I think not.
    You maybe need to remember who expectation is the ‘mother’ of.

    I’m not sure of all the stats but aren’t we getting perilously close to a time when suspensions begin to bite...particularly in defence?
    Again I’ve seen too little of us over the last month to know whether this is a fair reflection, but we seem to be collecting yellow cards at a far faster rate than our opponents.

  8. #8
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    Us getting more yellows comes under Rule 2 of the EFL's diktat, Rule 1 being 'every rule hereinafter is laid out to f**k up DCFC as much as possible'!!

  9. #9
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    Oh its scientific, rA - but then again so is eugenics....... Science can produce flawed results

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geoff Parkstone View Post
    Oh its scientific, rA - but then again so is eugenics....... Science can produce flawed results
    I’m sure statistics can fit into the category of science or ‘mathematical science’ at least, GP...but I doubt Andy’s use above can be described as ‘science’.

    Either way I’ll have a tenner with either of you - ones that I hope I lose - to a charity of your choice that we don’t stay up. Equally...if we can clear it all up, not lose our best youngsters or be penalised again next season and have a positive takeover, then I think we’ll be okay in a year or two.

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