Ot labour will get in

[Eternal Optimist]

Are the Tories about to have their Michael Foot moment ?

And you thought that was the longest suicide note in UK political history .

https://www.politics.co.uk/news/2024...rvative-party/

Potential hung parliament right there.

[great_fire]

Reform won't get enough seats to take over the Tory Party, their vote is too spread out.

[howdydoo]

Reform won't get enough seats to take over the Tory Party, their vote is too spread out.

Reform will do enough damage this election to bring in a high number of defections from the Tories. Or a deal will be done with and the Tories and they will merge and shift right.

[Eternal Optimist]

According to those claiming to be in the know, Reform should start winning seats once they pass 20% in the polls/election.

The current trajectory is obviously upwards, but will it continue? They may have peaked already.

[Grist_To_The_Mill]

Well, we are part of the new boundary changes and are now lumped in with those scrubbers from Rawmish 😆

We've hot a Reform candidate, a complete unknown that is unlikely to do much for the constituency should he win.

But then again we've had John Healey for years who has done feck all for us so no major change is expected

[KerrAvon]

The people we entrust to redistribute these taxes are ill equipped for the task in hand.

Change is coming. The 2 party system is coming to an end.

I give it 10 years max.

The 'first past the post' system skews elections in favour of the larger parties. The only way that I can see change coming about is if Labour decides to move to proportional representation and has a large enough majority to pull it off.

Any referendum on a change would go the same way as the Brexit vote - hijacked by the Tory supporting press to reject change on this occasion.

Maybe PR wouldn't be a bad thing. A bit of consensus politics would curb the extremes and make the UK a more attractive place to invest in.

[Redshank]

The 'first past the post' system skews elections in favour of the larger parties. The only way that I can see change coming about is if Labour decides to move to proportional representation and has a large enough majority to pull it off.

Any referendum on a change would go the same way as the Brexit vote - hijacked by the Tory supporting press to reject change on this occasion.

Maybe PR wouldn't be a bad thing. A bit of consensus politics would curb the extremes and make the UK a more attractive place to invest in.

100% agree

[KerrAvon]

Reform will do enough damage this election to bring in a high number of defections from the Tories. Or a deal will be done with and the Tories and they will merge and shift right.

I have no doubt that Farage's ultimate aim is to lead the Tories. That was apparent from the way he was schmoozing the Tory right at the party conference.

If the Tories lose they will lurch to the right (as they did in 1997) with people like Braverman, Badendoch and Patel vying to replace Sunak. If Farage wins in Clacton (which isn't a given if Labour, the Lib Dems and enough disgusted Tories get their act together) he will switch and go for it.

[ragingpup]

I have no doubt that Farage's ultimate aim is to lead the Tories. That was apparent from the way he was schmoozing the Tory right at the party conference.

If the Tories lose they will lurch to the right (as they did in 1997) with people like Braverman, Badendoch and Patel vying to replace Sunak. If Farage wins in Clacton (which isn't a given if Labour, the Lib Dems and enough disgusted Tories get their act together) he will switch and go for it.

The problem with such a lurch to the right is that I suspect that for every further right supporter they will gain (and the Tory paid members will undoubtably love this), they will lose at least the same amount if not more of the more centrist blue wall traditionally moderate supporters - I can see the party being pretty much split down the middle for at least a term until they can be persuaded that in the UK, at least historically, election wins only happen in the centre area.

There is at least some aspect of worry though - if Farage can get into such a position, and Labour in power fail to make significant impact on normal working people's lives - and this will be very hard for them in the financial strait jacket they are having to wear in order to get us to vote for them in the firs place (all this is ultimately our fault 100%), as they are having to operate in a similar way to what has struggled to work as a political/economic system in my lifetime). At this point, Farage - as a very astute political artist could motivate and bring on board people that are at the moment very much opposed to him and his priorities.

[KerrAvon]

11/1 on Farage being the next Tory leader at the mo.

Badendoch 4/1 favourite.