Love this tweet

[Returnofrros]

Covid deaths reported include instances where an individual has tested positive by PCR test within the 28 days preceding date of death.

The data on Covid deaths is where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate - not given as the actual cause of death.

Note of course that there is a disclaimer hidden within the report linked stating that 'the total excess was less than the number of deaths with a mention of COVID-19, indicating fewer deaths from other causes than expected'. Interesting disclaimer, why add it and why in such small print?

Now, I wonder why there were fewer deaths from 'other causes' than expected? Could it be that more 'other causes' deaths are being reported as Covid deaths than should be? Kind of proves what I've being saying all along, positive Covid tests within the preceding 28 days of death, and the subsequent naming of Covid on the death certificate as a result, are inflating the actual numbers of Covid deaths.

I can only really say thank you for pointing this information source out. To be honest I had skited over it the other day but couldn't really be arsed looking too closely, glad I did now.

Please now just accept that, with your help, I've proven my point that the counting of deaths where there has been a positive (unreliable) PCR test within the preceding 28 days is skewing the data.

I've put him on ignore.😁

[Deeranged]

I've put him on ignore.��

Absolutely incredible how some people are happy to look at a graph and declare 'oh look there's a picture that proves it' when if they just read into the source and collection methodology of the data and take note of the small print the nice colourful picture becomes completely different or even irrelevant.

I stopped looking at pictures and started reading when I was four years old. Then after a year at The Open University and I just knew I'd done the right thing at the right time.

[BCram]

Absolutely incredible how some people are happy to look at a graph and declare 'oh look there's a picture that proves it' when if they just read into the source and collection methodology of the data and take note of the small print the nice colourful picture becomes completely different or even irrelevant.

I stopped looking at pictures and started reading when I was four years old. Then after a year at The Open University and I just knew I'd done the right thing at the right time.

I am not prepared to call the ONS figures unreliable. I don't understand the thinking behind them. In particular I don't know how the expected deaths figure is arrived at. It surely isn't too difficult to explain but I put in the words expected deaths into the search function and nothing relevant came up.

[Deeranged]

I am not prepared to call the ONS figures unreliable. I don't understand the thinking behind them. In particular I don't know how the expected deaths figure is arrived at. It surely isn't too difficult to explain but I put in the words expected deaths into the search function and nothing relevant came up.

Type in 'typical average mortality rate uk'.

From the report - 'Excess mortality in this report is defined as the number of deaths throughout the pandemic which are above the number expected based on mortality rates in earlier years.'

If 600,000 died on average over say the last ten years it's fair to take that as an expected number of deaths for the current year assuming a fairly steady population number.

The PHE figures will be accurate however it's how the Covid death is being identified that's causing the skew. As has been pointed out time and time again it allows deaths by all causes to be included if the individual tested positive, using a test that is considered unreliable for use in a healthy individual incidentally, up to 28 days prior to date of death. Now, Tainted laughs that off by saying stupid things like they've all been hit by a 1B but the data is always going to include deaths that are entirely unrelated to Covid. We now see that the number of deaths by other causes is lower than expected.

This has to be, for me at least, correlated to the way Covid deaths have been defined to include any cause whether Covid, cancer, 1B or whatever where a positive test has been recorded within the preceding 28 days. Result is excess Covid numbers and reduced other cause deaths.

Now I don't have access to the raw data and I don't have the analytical tools to hand to prove this but if you just stand back a bit and look you'll see that the above is a perfectly considered hypothesis based on an analysis of the limited information to hand rather than a simple conspiracy theory. It is therefore for someone to disprove this and not for me to prove it any further.

[grantzer]

Type in 'typical average mortality rate uk'.

From the report - 'Excess mortality in this report is defined as the number of deaths throughout the pandemic which are above the number expected based on mortality rates in earlier years.'

If 600,000 died on average over say the last ten years it's fair to take that as an expected number of deaths for the current year assuming a fairly steady population number.

The PHE figures will be accurate however it's how the Covid death is being identified that's causing the skew. As has been pointed out time and time again it allows deaths by all causes to be included if the individual tested positive, using a test that is considered unreliable for use in a healthy individual incidentally, up to 28 days prior to date of death. Now, Tainted laughs that off by saying stupid things like they've all been hit by a 1B but the data is always going to include deaths that are entirely unrelated to Covid. We now see that the number of deaths by other causes is lower than expected.

This has to be, for me at least, correlated to the way Covid deaths have been defined to include any cause whether Covid, cancer, 1B or whatever where a positive test has been recorded within the preceding 28 days. Result is excess Covid numbers and reduced other cause deaths.

Now I don't have access to the raw data and I don't have the analytical tools to hand to prove this but if you just stand back a bit and look you'll see that the above is a perfectly considered hypothesis based on an analysis of the limited information to hand rather than a simple conspiracy theory. It is therefore for someone to disprove this and not for me to prove it any further.

Utter twaddle..

You have come up with a hypothesis,and provided some "evidence", which in your opinion suggests your hypothesis is correct.

Your evidence is your best guess,which isn't actually evidence, so all you really have is a hypothesis.

As a counter to your hypothesis, I will suggest one of my own. People are dying of covid. Some of those people also had other health conditions. Some died with covid who probably would have died soon anyway,seeing as they are generally elderly,with existing health issues.

As an example, a 95 year old with cancer dies of covid before the cancer can kill him. He probably would have died from cancer in six months, and is therefore in the expected deaths category.

He counts as a covid death,because covid ended his life. The number of people dying of cancer has just gone down.

Repeat that for a year,and for all illnesses.

Now evidence is tricky. But if you assume that doctors lie,to promote a hypothesis from deeranged,then the theory from deeranged looks a bit less waffle. But only a little less.

My hypothesis also looks sketchy,because I cannot suggest a leap of faith is in any way evidence supporting it. I can only go with the fact that I can see no reason for doctors to lie about cause of death.

[Returnofrros]

Paper today cancer charities report.

Surgery to remove tumours fell by 33% during "first wave"

April to Aug 21,700 fewer had cancer surgery than 2019.

Number of patients diagnosed with cancer from April to Sept fell by 25%.

Head of NHS says delay in cancer surgery is "major cause for concern"

800 cancer oops cancelled in January alone.

4 week delay in cancer treatment increases risk of death by 10%

Covid policy induced cancer backlog that is close to 100,000 patients.

Nobody has had their treatment curtailed though. No evidence.

[hmac]

Paper today cancer charities report.

Surgery to remove tumours fell by 33% during "first wave"

April to Aug 21,700 fewer had cancer surgery than 2019.

Number of patients diagnosed with cancer from April to Sept fell by 25%.

Head of NHS says delay in cancer surgery is "major cause for concern"

800 cancer oops cancelled in January alone.

4 week delay in cancer treatment increases risk of death by 10%

Covid policy induced cancer backlog that is close to 100,000 patients.

Nobody has had their treatment curtailed though. No evidence.

Some ops have always been cancelled though so what’s the base cancellation number?

Here’s a quarterly release from end 2019 and you can see thousands of ops are cancelled, without Covid.

This release covers NHS cancelled elective operations in England, during the quarter ending 31st December 2019.
The main points from the latest release are:
• During the quarter ending 31st December 2019, 23,503 operations were cancelled at the last minute for non-clinical reasons by NHS providers. In the same period in 2018/19, there were 20,166 cancelled operations.
• Cancelled operations during the quarter represented 1.1% of all elective activity, which is equal to the corresponding percentage in the same period in 2018/19 (1%).
• Of these cancellations 2,138 (9.1%) of patients were not treated within 28 days of a cancellation. In the same period in 2018/19, 1,665 (8.3%) of patients were not treated within 28 days.

From personal experience none of my Dads cancer treatments were cancelled in 2020, thankfully.

My mum also got everything she needed before she passed away in November.

I turned 50 and got my bowel screening stuff at the right time and had virtually no problem getting appointments for anything.

[Returnofrros]

Some ops have always been cancelled though so what’s the base cancellation number?

Here’s a quarterly release from end 2019 and you can see thousands of ops are cancelled, without Covid.

This release covers NHS cancelled elective operations in England, during the quarter ending 31st December 2019.
The main points from the latest release are:
• During the quarter ending 31st December 2019, 23,503 operations were cancelled at the last minute for non-clinical reasons by NHS providers. In the same period in 2018/19, there were 20,166 cancelled operations.
• Cancelled operations during the quarter represented 1.1% of all elective activity, which is equal to the corresponding percentage in the same period in 2018/19 (1%).
• Of these cancellations 2,138 (9.1%) of patients were not treated within 28 days of a cancellation. In the same period in 2018/19, 1,665 (8.3%) of patients were not treated within 28 days.

From personal experience none of my Dads cancer treatments were cancelled in 2020, thankfully.

My mum also got everything she needed before she passed away in November.

I turned 50 and got my bowel screening stuff at the right time and had virtually no problem getting appointments for anything.

So you accept some do some don't?

1 friend of mine got his on time but after treatment not great.

1 relative never.

My bowel screening now late and I'm in a higher risk group than you......unless your skin cream is making you look 10 year younger than you are.😉

My point is and has been all along there is another side to lockdoon....there is a price to pay, some people will "breeze" through, others will struggle financially, some with their health, some both and others it will cost them their life.

[Deeranged]

Utter twaddle..

You have come up with a hypothesis,and provided some "evidence", which in your opinion suggests your hypothesis is correct.

Your evidence is your best guess,which isn't actually evidence, so all you really have is a hypothesis.

As a counter to your hypothesis, I will suggest one of my own. People are dying of covid. Some of those people also had other health conditions. Some died with covid who probably would have died soon anyway,seeing as they are generally elderly,with existing health issues.

As an example, a 95 year old with cancer dies of covid before the cancer can kill him. He probably would have died from cancer in six months, and is therefore in the expected deaths category.

He counts as a covid death,because covid ended his life. The number of people dying of cancer has just gone down.

Repeat that for a year,and for all illnesses.

Now evidence is tricky. But if you assume that doctors lie,to promote a hypothesis from deeranged,then the theory from deeranged looks a bit less waffle. But only a little less.

My hypothesis also looks sketchy,because I cannot suggest a leap of faith is in any way evidence supporting it. I can only go with the fact that I can see no reason for doctors to lie about cause of death.

So prove it, show me the literature, show me the published data. I've reviewed a publicly available report and proposed a hypothesis based on that report, you've rejected it with the word 'twaddle' and by saying 'people are dying'. I know people are dying but I'm saying not as many as we're being told are dying. Do you know the difference between subjective evidence and objective evidence? My hypothesis is based on objective evidence, your rejection of it is purely subjective.

I'll counter your argument that a 95 year old with cancer might die of Covid before the cancer kills them by proposing another 95 year old with cancer might die of that cancer having tested positive for Covid ten days earlier but having shown no symptoms of Covid. they are then a Covid death statistic - would that be right? I have a real world experience of just that happening however my uncle was 'only' 87.

Doctors are not lying about cause of death, I did initially think that might be going on as it was suggested in the media but the report shows what's really happening. The Covid death statistics being reported are not in fact 'death caused by Covid' they are deaths reported with Covid mentioned on the death certificate. By that measure a death certificate might well say 'Cause of death - bowel cancer, the deceased tested postive for Covid-19 ten days previously but displayed no signs of respiratory distress' but it's mentioned on the death certificate and the doctor would be negligent not to mention the positive test. However Covid will not have caused that particular death.

I'm not saying you're wrong, I just want you to prove that I am.

[hmac]

So you accept some do some don't?

1 friend of mine got his on time but after treatment not great.

1 relative never.

My bowel screening now late and I'm in a higher risk group than you......unless your skin cream is making you look 10 year younger than you are.😉

My point is and has been all along there is another side to lockdoon....there is a price to pay, some people will "breeze" through, others will struggle financially, some with their health, some both and others it will cost them their life.

Of course some do some don’t, it looks like that’s always been the way.

I agree on lockdown points there too but I do then expect you to acknowledge that while what you say has merit, it’s also the case that for some people lockdown will have saved their life.

There isn’t a right or wrong with how to deal with Covid, so many variables. My issue with both UK and Scottish governments has been too long to make decisions, flip flopping and talking to us like we’re badly behaved children.