O/T:- Ukraine [Incorporating 'Congrats to Russia' thread]

[drillerpie]

Belarus president claims that Wagner has agreed to end the insurrection. Wagner Group leader Evgeny Prigozhin will abandon his mutiny in exchange for “security guarantees” for his fighters.

Confirmed by Prigozhin.

Wonder what they offered him?

Some people on social media saying it was a planned/sham coup all along. Can't see how it benefits either of them though.

Putin having to evacuate (his plane left Moscow this afternoon, Kremlin PR denied he was on it, so he probably was on it) RU army having to blow up bridges and dig up roads around Moscow, loads of troops and equipment moved away from Ukraine. This weakens Putin and has no obvious benefit for his invasion.

Prigozhin the rabble rousing populist going to take out the complacent and decadent elite needs some red meat to throw at his soldiers and supporters. He surely can't just say he changed his mind. Plus he will need to sleep with both eyes open from now on.

[upthemaggies]

Confirmed by Prigozhin.

Wonder what they offered him?

Some people on social media saying it was a planned/sham coup all along. Can't see how it benefits either of them though.

Putin having to evacuate (his plane left Moscow this afternoon, Kremlin PR denied he was on it, so he probably was on it) RU army having to blow up bridges and dig up roads around Moscow, loads of troops and equipment moved away from Ukraine. This weakens Putin and has no obvious benefit for his invasion.

Prigozhin the rabble rousing populist going to take out the complacent and decadent elite needs some red meat to throw at his soldiers and supporters. He surely can't just say he changed his mind. Plus he will need to sleep with both eyes open from now on.

Not Russia's finest hour, that's for sure.

I know you won't agree with this but I would say now was the time for a peace deal from which Russia would accept peanuts.
If it drags on then it'll either end in catastrophe or a peace deal where Russia gets more than they would if it was done now.
I expect it will drag on for many years and there's no chance of talks any time soon.

[drillerpie]

Not Russia's finest hour, that's for sure.

I know you won't agree with this but I would say now was the time for a peace deal from which Russia would accept peanuts.
If it drags on then it'll either end in catastrophe or a peace deal where Russia gets more than they would if it was done now.
I expect it will drag on for many years and there's no chance of talks any time soon.

Yeah I'm afraid I don't agree.

If the coup had developed it would've give Putin a credible out - "we can't fight a civil war and a foreign war so the invasion is over".

If Prigozhin somehow had taken power he could've gone with "The invasion was botched by others, not me, but no more Russians into the meat grinder".

As it is there is no easy out for the Russians. Also it would be impossible for Zelensky to make a deal now after so many Ukrainians have died defending the country, with a gazillion tonnes of military hardware still to arrive, tens of thousands of troops yet to deploy, and Russia seemingly struggling.

I know war is the most awful thing and it's easy for me to say from where I am, but I really think this is a war that Russia needs to lose unambiguously, so it has to come to terms with the fact it'snot an empire any more, in the same way that all other European countries have done.

Either that or stay a dictatorship, stay completely isolated from Europe and pivot to Asia where that kind of thing is more accepted.

Interestingly, another theory on social media is that Progozhin was counting on support from oligarchs/parts of the military which didn't materialise.

[upthemaggies]

Either that or stay a dictatorship, stay completely isolated from Europe and pivot to Asia where that kind of thing is more accepted.
.

Been listening to Kisin and FWIW he was saying there's zero chance of Russia becoming a democracy after what happened last time, he also said many there see Putin as weak and that they want a stronger leader. So people here celebrating that Putin's time might be coming to an end will likely be very disappointed with the replacement, "Do you think Nick Clegg is waiting in the wings?"

[drillerpie]

Been listening to Kisin and FWIW he was saying there's zero chance of Russia becoming a democracy after what happened last time, he also said many there see Putin as weak and that they want a stronger leader. So people here celebrating that Putin's time might be coming to an end will likely be very disappointed with the replacement, "Do you think Nick Clegg is waiting in the wings?"

Well yes I agree with him on all counts. Russia has never really been free in any shape or form, and they don't have the necessary traditions to build a democracy.

Russia came from Muscovy, which emerged quite late as a population centre (much later than Ukraine for example) and very quickly became a vassal of the Mongol horde, who taught them how to fight with tactics which were unstoppable at the time, in return for tributes. These tactics eventually allowed the Muscovites to conquer territory all the way south and all the way east, to form the Russian empire.

After that there came the various Czars, with more and more repressive versions of serfdom, under which everything and everyone belonged to the Czars.

From that they passed very quickly to the Soviet Union, which we all know about. They have never really been free or had any legally enshrined democratic rights in several centuries of existence. In the short periods of time they have had them on paper, they have been severely curtailed by corruption.

So the Russian tradition is more about warfare and empire building than it is about the legal frameworks, individual rights, and so on, that distinguished Western political tradition. There is no more point trying to export democracy to Russia than there was to Afghanistan. But what will be will be on that score - if it happens, it happens.

I was just outlining what needs to happen if Russian wants to be in the same club as European and North American democracies.

Assuming Russia does become an even more belligerent, more expansionist, more repressive country, then we just militarise the borders with Europe proper, and iron curtain them again for as long as we need to.

They can do whatever they like (I know they can't as the people have no say really, just an expression) as long as we know where we stand. The problems in recent years have come from pretending Russia was part of our club when it clearly wasn't, and ignoring the evidence that was staring us in the face.

I kind of hope they do pivot to China as it would be funny if they destroyed a lucrative relationship with Europe only to make themselves vassals of China, a country that does actually have territorial disputes with them. I'd give it 20/30 years of Russian decline before China intervenes militarily to take the parts of Russia it wants.

[Mud Pie]

thanks for the interesting reads and highly informative debate from all sides. Who'd have thought Notts mad would be such a resource.

[upthemaggies]

thanks for the interesting reads and highly informative debate from all sides. Who'd have thought Notts mad would be such a resource.

Football fan forums must be one of the few last remaining corners of the internet that haven't become political echo chambers, we've got a genuine diversity of thoughts and ideas here.

[jackal2]

Football fan forums must be one of the few last remaining corners of the internet that haven't become political echo chambers, we've got a genuine diversity of thoughts and ideas here.

True! This isn't a place for people who are "offended" by reading opinions different to their own.

[Mud Pie]

Football fan forums must be one of the few last remaining corners of the internet that haven't become political echo chambers, we've got a genuine diversity of thoughts and ideas here.

so it would seem. Now I have visions of you guys at home in a sea of empty Special Brew cans with your razor blades sewn into your rosettes, scarves tied around your wrists all your bruises and missing teeth from Glaswegian kisses and Millwall bricks, meticulously elucidating the nuances of international relations.
It's a funny owd game!

[Old_pie]

So what's going on now? Where's Andy when you need him?