As promised/threatened I am persiting with my stats based end of season planner, and on the basis of the past five games form, plus current points attained, minus the 9 points Derby expect to lose, and on that basis we survive.
17th Swansea 1.2 points = 40.8 points + 12 points = 52.8 points
18th Derby: 1.6 points = 54.4points +3 points -9 points = 48.4 points
19th Preston .8 points = 27.2 points + 12 points = 39.2 points
20th Hull City 0.8 points = 27.2 points + 9 points = 36.2 points
21st Peterborough 0.8 points = 27.2 points + 8 points = 35.2 points
22nd Birmingham .2 points = 6.8 points +12 points =18.8 points
23rd Barnsley 0.2 points = 6.8 points + 8 points = 14.8 points
24th Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points
World logistics are a disaster, get your order of bunting in early
Time to update the season end projection based on the form in the last five games
15th Sheff Utd 1.2 points = 39.6 points + 15 points = 54.6 points
16th Preston 1.2 points = 39.6 points + 15 points = 54.6 points
17th Swansea 1.2 points = 40.8 points + 12 points = 52.8 points
18th Bristol City .8 points = 26.4 points +16 points = 42.4 points
19th Peterborough .8 points = 26.4 points + 11 points = 37.4 points
20th Derby: 1.2 points = 40.8 points + 4 points -9 points = 35.8 points
21st Hull .8 points = 26.4 points +9 points = 35.4 points
22nd Birmingham .4 points = 13.2 points +13 points = 26.2 points
23rd Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points
24th Barnsley 0 points = 0 points + 8 points = 8 points
So Derby move down two places but still escape relegation. A win last night would have seen us even more comfortable - roll on doing the sky Blues on Sat
I fancy us to survive, we just need to keep up the battle. Curiously, I worry that a takeover, whilst a positive, might make people nervous and spur a bad run, but I think we'll be close.
I agree Ramshank but with more sanctions likely and the Mafioso looking for every opportunity to chuck a few hand grenades in our direction we will have to dig a few trenches. Turning these draws into wins is imperative because there's always a bad run lurking!
Derbys survivability calculated after 14 games, based on last five games form
17th Peterborough 1.4 points = 44.8 points + 14 points = 58.8 points
18th Preston 1.0 points = 32 points + 15 points = 47 points
19th Birmingham .8 points = 25.6 points +16 points = 41.6 points
20th Derby: 1.4 points = 44.8 points + 5 points -9 points = 40.8 points
21st Bristol City .6 points = 19.2 points +16 points = 35.2points
22nd Hull .8 points = 25.6 points +9 points = 34.6 points
23rd Cardiff 0 points = 0 points + 11 points = 11 points
24th Barnsley 0 points = 0 points + 8 points = 8 points
COYR!