Statistics Reveal How We Might Beat Brentford

[ellafella]

Fig 1


Fig 2


Fig 3


The very excellent Experimental 3-6-1 site is starting to aggregate the attacking and defending statistics from this year's Championship games. The above charts are based on matches up until 13th September and whilst it's still early-doors, we can start to see discernible patterns in the data {If you don't think statistics tell you much about football then stop at this point...this post isn't for you}.

To summarise, the above charts are based on data from every game that each team has played in the league so far. They plot things like how many shots each team has taken to score a goal {ie a ratio of shots taken to goals scored and hence "shot" quality} and similarly a ratio of shots faced to goals conceded {and hence a "defending" quality}. Now, if you have a low ratio of shots taken to goa

[AngryRam]

There back... It's like the return of an old enemy.
I do enjoy reading them tho.

[ellafella]

There back... It's like the return of an old enemy.
I do enjoy reading them tho.

I know you are a closet anorak really Angry...

[roger_ramjet]

I stopped after one paragraph... my stochastic was giving me gyp

[ellafella]

I stopped after one paragraph... my stochastic was giving me gyp

...Can always rely on Roger for that high brow input

[blackandwhite56]

There back... It's like the return of an old enemy.
I do enjoy reading them tho.

My reaction was exactly the same as Angry's.

These charts are seductive, they suck you into spending a lot of time looking at them and asking questions.
But like the title of your post Ella they don't deliver - please spell out FROM THE CHARTS exactly what do they tell us about how we'll beat Brentford? Hang on ..... convert more of our shots...

[AnagRam]

It'd help if an advert didn't come up and block the bottom third every time I try to look at them! Or maybe not, the only real statistic that matters about 'how we might beat Brentford' is that we score more goals than them. I think we will, but I've got this horrible little niggle that reminds me it's only about six months ago that they came to the iPro and played us off the park. Important one this, not so much for league positions this early on maybe, but certainly for confidence going into yet another 'break'.

[ellafella]

[b]It'd help if an advert didn't come up and block the bottom third every time I try to look at them! ...[/b.

Try clicking on the little cross at the bottom of the chart...

[ellafella]

There back... It's like the return of an old enemy.
I do enjoy reading them tho.

My reaction was exactly the same as Angry's.

These charts are seductive, they suck you into spending a lot of time looking at them and asking questions.
But like the title of your post Ella they don't deliver - please spell out FROM THE CHARTS exactly what do they tell us about how we'll beat Brentford? Hang on ..... convert more of our shots... [/quote]

They give an insight...Brentford are busy in attack and are pretty clinical if you give them opportunity but are very vulnerable defensively. So get at them, take the game to them and Derby will get plenty of chances. Of course, the same can be said of any team you play...but try checking out some of the other teams and their positions on the charts. For example, Reading and Blackburn, and Middlesbrough...

[AngryRam]

What I don't get with stats is that they are retrospective.. They take into account the good and bad in the past tense.
So what happens if we have an absolute blinder against Brentford and then a real mare next time. The stats might show we are an average side when is reality we are an inconsistent side, so anything might happen in the next game.