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Thread: Relegation Picture

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
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    Relegation Picture

    So after today's games is everything in the Millers garden coming up roses? Are the games in hand masking reality? I took a look at what would be needed by each team (irrespective of their opponents) to reach the mythical 50pts based upon the number of points they have left to play for. So for example, Wycombe would need to take 27pts from the remaining 36pts they have to play for. That's a whopping 75% return rate needed compared to their current return rate of just 23%. Hard to see them surviving.

    Wycombe 27 from 36 75% (currently 23%)
    Wednesday 22 from 36 61% (currently 27%)

    Millers 18 from 42 42% (currently 33%)
    Birmingham 15 from 33 45% (currently 33%)

    Coventry 12 from 33 36% (currently 36%)
    Derby 12 from 36 33% (currently 37%)
    Huddersfield 12 from 33 36% (currently 36%)
    Forest 10 from 33 30% (currently 38%)

    Obviously 50pts might not be the required number but it does indicate that barring a big change in fortunes the bottom 2 are likely gone and the 3rd place will be a fight between who can show the best form between us and Birmingham.

  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by CAMiller View Post
    So after today's games is everything in the Millers garden coming up roses? Are the games in hand masking reality? I took a look at what would be needed by each team (irrespective of their opponents) to reach the mythical 50pts based upon the number of points they have left to play for. So for example, Wycombe would need to take 27pts from the remaining 36pts they have to play for. That's a whopping 75% return rate needed compared to their current return rate of just 23%. Hard to see them surviving.

    Wycombe 27 from 36 75% (currently 23%)
    Wednesday 22 from 36 61% (currently 27%)

    Millers 18 from 42 42% (currently 33%)
    Birmingham 15 from 33 45% (currently 33%)

    Coventry 12 from 33 36% (currently 36%)
    Derby 12 from 36 33% (currently 37%)
    Huddersfield 12 from 33 36% (currently 36%)
    Forest 10 from 33 30% (currently 38%)

    Obviously 50pts might not be the required number but it does indicate that barring a big change in fortunes the bottom 2 are likely gone and the 3rd place will be a fight between who can show the best form between us and Birmingham.
    Yep one way of looking at it Camiller. We just need to use our games in hand to creep above Brum at least. we must beat Cov next week for a start.

  3. #3
    We average a point per game so far

    We are 3 points behind Birmingham with 3 games in hand over them

    So if we stay on a consistent track then we end up with the same points as them, but likely to have a better goal difference.

    A couple of wins though and it looks a lot better

  4. #4
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    If we could beat Cov, Brum, Wycombe and QPR it wouldn’t half help

  5. #5
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    Of course it is all personal opinion but as I said elsewhere I think Birmingham are the team we should be targeting. I know you have to target every game and all that, which is true, but looking for a team overhaul it has to be Birmingham for me.

    I feel, to a tiny degree of course, for Wycombe. The fact that they still don't really get turned over is a credit to them considering just how often they lose and how dire their situation is.

    Coventry and Derby are clearly still catchable and probably not strong enough to put together a couple of wins on the bounce so they will stay on the edge of the picture in terms of relegation. Next week is massive. 6 points could become 3 or 9, huge difference.

    It really is down to us this season, we have a good chance in my opinion. Won't be easy but we won't go down.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by gm_gm View Post
    If we could beat Cov, Brum, Wycombe and QPR it wouldn’t half help
    Yeah, all at home as well

  7. #7
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    50+ Points is what Warney is aiming for

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grist_To_The_Mill View Post
    We average a point per game so far

    We are 3 points behind Birmingham with 3 games in hand over them

    So if we stay on a consistent track then we end up with the same points as them, but likely to have a better goal difference.

    A couple of wins though and it looks a lot better
    Yes. If the remainder of the season plays out exactly like it has so far, Brum and us finish on 46pts with us above them on GD. Whether that would be enough is another question?

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by millertop View Post
    50+ Points is what Warney is aiming for
    That’s more than our average so far

  10. #10
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    Aug 2005
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    Another conspiracist

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/spo...ation-19982449

    Why do I get the feeling Karanka has only just said this now because they lost at Barnsley and he is starting to look over his shoulders. Would he have said the same if they had beat Barnsley today?

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