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Thread: Ukraine Medium Term View

  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Posts
    1,238

    Ukraine Medium Term View

    Scenario 1)
    Russia completes its aims, demilitarising Ukraine.
    Winners
    USA, Massive Arms contracts as Europe invests heavily in defence. Able to pull back forces from Europe
    China, more trade from Russia, India staying neutral will be a transit hub east to west
    Losers
    Europe, Ukraine - gone
    Scenario 2)
    Somehow Ukraine survives
    Winners
    USA, Massive Arms contracts as Europe invests heavily in defence.
    China, more trade from Russia, India staying neutral will be a transit hub east to west
    Losers
    Europe, Ukraine needing generations to recover

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Posts
    11,739
    There is no medium term view; we just pray that we survive the short term.

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