Our 'Possession' stats

[Elite_Pie]

Something regularly mentioned in match threads, but maybe worth a separate topic. It's nearly always in our favour, we invariably have more of the ball than the opposition even in away games. But that's all 'possession' means, that we have the ball. I'm a fan of stats, but this one can be misleading and last night was a perfect example as to why. Apparently we had 70% possession, which I wouldn't dispute. Maybe it should be broken down into 'negative possession', where you have the ball in your own half, and 'positive possession' where you have the ball in the opposition half. Last night our 70% possession would have been around 60% negative and 10% positive. The negative possession created far more chances for them than our positive possession did for us.

I'm not asking for a big change in playing style, but we have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot.

[ncfcog]

Something regularly mentioned in match threads, but maybe worth a separate topic. It's nearly always in our favour, we invariably have more of the ball than the opposition even in away games. But that's all 'possession' means, that we have the ball. I'm a fan of stats, but this one can be misleading and last night was a perfect example as to why. Apparently we had 70% possession, which I wouldn't dispute. Maybe it should be broken down into 'negative possession', where you have the ball in your own half, and 'positive possession' where you have the ball in the opposition half. Last night our 70% possession would have been around 60% negative and 10% positive. The negative possession created far more chances for them than our positive possession did for us.

I'm not asking for a big change in playing style, but we have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot.

This is actually a really interest point to raise. As many have said on here the plus side oft keeping possession, positive or negative, is that while you have the ball the opposition can't score. Unfortunately we appear to have created an ability to have even more possession yet let the opposition have more chances.

In the match stats I include a metric for territory, this takes into account the number of passes in the final third and last night like most games we tend to enjoy higher territory stats than our opponents, however, I suppose you could use that figure to identify positive possession?

Problem again though is how you determine positive and negative, if we were winning by one goal with 5 minutes to go and manage to keep possession by passing it around the back until the final whistle then you could see that as positive in terms of how it ensured you got the win., but then negative in the style of play.

[1955pie]

Something regularly mentioned in match threads, but maybe worth a separate topic. It's nearly always in our favour, we invariably have more of the ball than the opposition even in away games. But that's all 'possession' means, that we have the ball. I'm a fan of stats, but this one can be misleading and last night was a perfect example as to why. Apparently we had 70% possession, which I wouldn't dispute. Maybe it should be broken down into 'negative possession', where you have the ball in your own half, and 'positive possession' where you have the ball in the opposition half. Last night our 70% possession would have been around 60% negative and 10% positive. The negative possession created far more chances for them than our positive possession did for us.

I'm not asking for a big change in playing style, but we have to stop shooting ourselves in the foot.

Just come across this.
https://therealefl.co.uk/2023/08/09/...ensive-issues/

[ncfcog]

Ok, just taken the Sutton game as a sample.

Passes:
Notts 599 - Passes into final third 73
Sutton 303 - Passes into final third 43

Positive Passes %:
Notts 12.20%
Sutton 14.19%

Chances created from final third balls:
Notts 12 from 73
Sutton 13 from 43

Chances from final third passes %:
Notts 16.44%
Sutton 30.23%

That last stat isn't great and that's without considering the value of the chances created. This might be worth some more analysis so I might go a bit deeper into this when I've got some time, in the meantime I'll continue to record this data match by match people think the findings will be interesting enough.

[Elite_Pie]

As many have said on here the plus side oft keeping possession, positive or negative, is that while you have the ball the opposition can't score. Unfortunately we appear to have created an ability to have even more possession yet let the opposition have more chances.

That's my worry, loads of our 'possession' passes were in our final third. The idea is that we eventually pass through the press and create an attacking opportunity. It worked well last season, but not last night. It's one game against higher opposition with a weakened team, so I don't want to read too much into it. Just that last night it created more opportunities for them than us.

[keldsyke]

Ok, just taken the Sutton game as a sample.

Passes:
Notts 599 - Passes into final third 73
Sutton 303 - Passes into final third 43

Positive Passes %:
Notts 12.20%
Sutton 14.19%

Chances created from final third balls:
Notts 12 from 73
Sutton 13 from 43

Chances from final third passes %:
Notts 16.44%
Sutton 30.23%

That last stat isn't great and that's without considering the value of the chances created. This might be worth some more analysis so I might go a bit deeper into this when I've got some time, in the meantime I'll continue to record this data match by match people think the findings will be interesting enough.

Watching the highlights I don’t think I saw one chance never mind 12 or 16.44%!! As I’ve said before you can interpret data how you want to see it, don’t believe everything that’s put out, it doesn’t show the real picture.

[the_anticlough]

Well in 2022/23 our possession game gained us a record of W32 D11 L3 Pts107

This season it has got us W0 D0 L1 (albeit with 10men from 15mins).

Some are saying 'abandon it' and ' change', but I wonder if this is an adequate sample size to draw conclusions...

[ncfcog]

Watching the highlights I don’t think I saw one chance never mind 12 or 16.44%!! As I’ve said before you can interpret data how you want to see it, don’t believe everything that’s put out, it doesn’t show the real picture.

You need to have an understanding of what you are using the data for, then use it in conjunction with traditional methods of analysis to try and identify and realise what you hope to achieve from it.

The data above suggests we've stopped doing in the first two games of this season what we were doing really well last season, using our positive possession to create plenty of high value chances.

Maybe there is a level of anxiety meaning the players are passing much shorter as the confidence going forward has taken a bit of a pasting. Maybe the mix of new players and a change of tactics has impacted it as well. Maybe going down to ten meant we couldn't be as decisive as we would want to be.

You're right about manipulation of stats to suit a certain narrative but when I post stats they are there to generate analytical debate, I don't use them to try and make us look good or bad, that would be pointless.

[Kyle95]

That's my worry, loads of our 'possession' passes were in our final third. The idea is that we eventually pass through the press and create an attacking opportunity. It worked well last season, but not last night. It's one game against higher opposition with a weakened team, so I don't want to read too much into it. Just that last night it created more opportunities for them than us.

The answer is simple we don't have Ruben Rodrigues, haven't replaced him well enough and L2 teams aren't afraid of Notts County. I've said it before and i'll keep saying it we weren't good defensively last year, it's more most NL teams couldn't finish their chances against us. That's why i'm not shocked that we are now giving up so many goals. Nemane, Rawlinson, Baldwin, Cameron and Chicksen is a NL level defence. LW is not to blame for this, he's been badly let down by the owners imo.

[Mapperleypie]

There is absolutely no doubt that RR is a massive loss given the way we play. His ability to shield the ball and then have the ability to then play a positive forward pass is something I am yet see from the midfield so far this season.

Let's be honest though, before we throw the baby out with the bathwater, we have played the first game with 10 men for 75 minutes and then played a strong league one side (again for nearly half of it with 10 men). First port of call has to be play 90 mins+ with 11 men and ideally take the lead. Until we have seen this happen we have no idea as to whether this team can compete at his level.