OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Andy_Faber]

At the end of the day surely the truth of the matter is this simple.
Since Brexit the following has happened.
1. The value of the pound has dropped significantly leading to an increase in the cost of all imports and everyone’s cost of living.
2. The extent to which we are valued by fellow Europeans has also decreased considerably leading to us becoming increasingly mistrusted and isolated.
3. The Irish problem which had been largely solved is in danger of arising again.
4. We have become less able to stand up to the dreadful Trump because we fear we are likely to become more dependent of trans Atlantic trade deals in the post Brexit world.
5. Our politicians have been unable to focus on anything at all other than Brexit.
6. The likely Brexit bill has risen to £50 billion which, far from helping the NHS as promised, is likely to cripple our public services for the foreseeable future.

On the plus side, as far as the Brexiteers are concerned, I believe Mr. Farage has a guaranteed £73k pension from the EU.

Welcome back RA, I thought you'd defected.

1. The pound is actually on the way up, 1.14 and the market makers on R4 this am were tipping it to outperform most currencies over the next few months
2. Not sure where you get that from, no-one I speak to feels like that
3. Tricky one, probably the biggest issue to be resolved. There's no solution I can see
4. If you look back at Ramjet's posts 2818, my guess and the stories I hear on the radio suggest that's how US works as well, the politicians spunk off about this and that and the bureaucrats get some actual, and possibly contradictory, work done. Not to say he isn't fundamentally dreadful of course.
5. I think its the media, not politicians, that can't shake Brexit off, but its certainly draining resource that could be deployed elsewhere
6. See my post 2803, which attempts to put the £50m (and £350m a week lol) into context

I would defend NF retaining his pension if he wasn't already wealthy enough, but he is so I won't

[roger_ramjet]

Welcome back RA, I thought you'd defected.

1. The pound is actually on the way up, 1.14 and the market makers on R4 this am were tipping it to outperform most currencies over the next few months
2. Not sure where you get that from, no-one I speak to feels like that
3. Tricky one, probably the biggest issue to be resolved. There's no solution I can see
4. If you look back at Ramjet's posts 2818, my guess and the stories I hear on the radio suggest that's how US works as well, the politicians spunk off about this and that and the bureaucrats get some actual, and possibly contradictory, work done. Not to say he isn't fundamentally dreadful of course.
5. I think its the media, not politicians, that can't shake Brexit off, but its certainly draining resource that could be deployed elsewhere
6. See my post 2803, which attempts to put the £50m (and £350m a week lol) into context

I would defend NF retaining his pension if he wasn't already wealthy enough, but he is so I won't

1, and 5 - I agree with Andy

#2 I quite like being the pariah of Europe

#4 Harsh to define me as fundamentally dreadful

#6 Whatever the price is, it will come as a shock to some people, but 5 to 7 years salary as a divorce cost, with us keeping the kids and the trade status is perhaps to have been expected however unwelcome. That's effectively the cost of all those northerners wanting the Poles out so they could turn down the jobs thus created, and stick to benefits, I guess!

[swaledale]

You can take the boy out of England.......

As for Dutch issues..... I do have strong opinions. They need to get away from proportional representation OR raise the minimum % of votes required to qualify for seats. 150 seats in Parliament. In the March election there were 84 parties putting up candidates. 13 of them have seats. It took until 2 weeks ago to form a coalition.... They go meekly along with everything EU which has the benefit of seeing them get a higher proportion of the "top jobs" that one might expect. Always having coalitions means they never get anything done

One of the new parties called the forum for democracy has a novel idea. They will refuse to join a coalition and will only go into government if they are the largest party in the country. If necessary they will form a minority government. With the possible exception of their party leader being prime Minister, none of their MPs will get Minister's posts. The cabinet will be based on knowledge. All Ministers will be experts in the field their Ministry covers. This also means that the Ministers will do what is conceived as best for the country rather than best for their party as they will have no affiliation. The Minister of Finance will be a top economist who will push for measures to help the entire country rather than, first and foremost, the party faithful.

This might mean that the Ministers push policy that is the opposite of what the party had in their manifesto. They see this as the ultimate in democracy. Ministers controlled by Parliament. Novel idea that might work.

One thing I am trying find out at the moment is to whom do the Dutch owe their national debt? I suspect some to the IMF and ECB but much will be to private banks (Rothschilds etc?). Time to stop the annual overspend. The debt is rising by about 350 euro per second. This has to stop as it is creating a rod for our kids and grandkids backs. Totally unacceptable to me.

Banks. They need reeling in. They, and they alone, caused the 2008 crash with their greed. Next time a bank looks like collapsing, let it collapse. Banks like the ABN were in dire trouble. They got billions in return for shares. they now have those shares back but the total repayments were less than they had received in bale out money. Disgusting.

Simple answer to your question is YES!!

The thing that worries me about what you say is the idea of a "top economist" being a Finance minister, mm that will be one of most of the economists that did not forsee the 2008 financial crash then?

Also in reality ministers already take their line from so called "experts", they deliver policies that have been dreamed up by "experts" so what your suggesting would not really change matters i think

[ramAnag]

Welcome back RA, I thought you'd defected.

1. The pound is actually on the way up, 1.14 and the market makers on R4 this am were tipping it to outperform most currencies over the next few months
2. Not sure where you get that from, no-one I speak to feels like that
3. Tricky one, probably the biggest issue to be resolved. There's no solution I can see
4. If you look back at Ramjet's posts 2818, my guess and the stories I hear on the radio suggest that's how US works as well, the politicians spunk off about this and that and the bureaucrats get some actual, and possibly contradictory, work done. Not to say he isn't fundamentally dreadful of course.
5. I think its the media, not politicians, that can't shake Brexit off, but its certainly draining resource that could be deployed elsewhere
6. See my post 2803, which attempts to put the £50m (and £350m a week lol) into context

I would defend NF retaining his pension if he wasn't already wealthy enough, but he is so I won't

No defection Andy...just had a few issues to deal with.

1) The pound isn’t really on the way up is it? It’s meandering around at somewhere between 20 - 25 cents lower than it was immediately before the referendum.
2) The German and French folk I’ve come across are just bewildered by our actions and think we’re insane.
3) Tricky indeed and I don’t want to return to the days of Irish terrorism.
4) See your point but Brexit has actually disempowered us in this respect.
5) We seem to agree but don’t blame the media...the Referendum was brought about by Tory Party squabbles and the Tory Government is obsessed by it’s own survival while trying to manage an unmanageable Brexit deal.
6) We are going to be worse off for a long time whichever way you look at it if this all goes ahead.

Farage is just a hypocritical tw*t who should just be stripped of everything he owns and sentenced for treason in my - wholly balanced - opinion.
Sorry...had a difficult couple of weeks and my normally more tolerant persona has gone awol.

[MadAmster]

The French and Germans are scared out of their minds that Brexit works as they know that that would leave to more of the proletareate wanting to leave and the 27 would soon become 26 and then increasingly less and the 2 countries would lose their grip on Europe that they have been after, separately and together, for a couple of hundered years all told.

I for one hope that this Franco/German alliance falls apart big time. there is too much power being put into too few hands in both politics and business, all to the detriment of the man in the street.

Gloablisation needs reversing.

[AdiSalisbury]

Farage is just a hypocritical tw*t who should just be stripped of everything he owns and sentenced for treason in my - wholly balanced - opinion.
Sorry...had a difficult couple of weeks and my normally more tolerant persona has gone awol.

At least you have a sense of humour, not like those dull German's, smelly French, and dippy Irish

And at least the media are providing balanced opinion...

UK Manufacturing employment surging (financial times)...

https://www.ft.com/content/eb353ce0-beec-11e7-9836-b25f8adaa111

UK Manufacturing employment slowdown (gaurdian)...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/oct/02/slowdown-uk-manufacturing-sector-weak-pound-pmi-brexit

[swaledale]

The French and Germans are scared out of their minds that Brexit works as they know that that would leave to more of the proletareate wanting to leave and the 27 would soon become 26 and then increasingly less and the 2 countries would lose their grip on Europe that they have been after, separately and together, for a couple of hundered years all told.

I for one hope that this Franco/German alliance falls apart big time. there is too much power being put into too few hands in both politics and business, all to the detriment of the man in the street.

Gloablisation needs reversing.

Globalisation is going to get worse and only strong countries will have an influence, which is where the EU would score strongly assuming and its a big assumption it was able to act in a unified way.

Anyway 18 months after the non binding advisory referendum, in which 37% of the population voted to leave, its good to see that after Brexiteers said the Uk could leave without paying anything and both leading Brexit politicians such as Gove, johnson, Redwood and Fox urged the country to do so, after a meeting with her Brexit ministers the PM has now offered...eh around £40 billion.

Cracking stuff, we may cringe at the Eu but hey our own lot don't exactly exhibit any more grasp of reality tbh.

[Andy_Faber]

No defection Andy...just had a few issues to deal with.

1) The pound isn’t really on the way up is it? It’s meandering around at somewhere between 20 - 25 cents lower than it was immediately before the referendum.
2) The German and French folk I’ve come across are just bewildered by our actions and think we’re insane.
3) Tricky indeed and I don’t want to return to the days of Irish terrorism.
4) See your point but Brexit has actually disempowered us in this respect.
5) We seem to agree but don’t blame the media...the Referendum was brought about by Tory Party squabbles and the Tory Government is obsessed by it’s own survival while trying to manage an unmanageable Brexit deal.
6) We are going to be worse off for a long time whichever way you look at it if this all goes ahead.

Farage is just a hypocritical tw*t who should just be stripped of everything he owns and sentenced for treason in my - wholly balanced - opinion.
Sorry...had a difficult couple of weeks and my normally more tolerant persona has gone awol.

you're still making sense, hang in there

....and you may have hit on something regarding 2, the Mothers' Union meeting I earwig on every working day doesn't have any French or Germans in it and my posse are most definitely out of love with EU, only wishing UK was putting a better fight up! sounds a bit like the cricket actually...

[MadAmster]

Globalisation is going to get worse

Unfortunately, unless huge numbers of ordinary folk start protesting by avoiding the multinationals and buying from thier local shops, you are absolutely right.

The next big merger might be Bayer and Monsanto. The end result of that will be that shareholders will get bigger dividends and tens of thousands of staff will get the sack.

The conspiracy theorists have been warning of the New World Order for ages and have been roundly laughed at by most. Do mergers like the one mentioned above and the movement to a United States of Europe point to them being right as they were in the 10 cases mentioned at https://www.oddee.com/item_99023.aspx ?? I hope they were wrong!

[swaledale]

For the "ordinary folk" to make a difference they would have to eschew the rampant consumerism which they are all to readily eager to embrace, often borrowing money to do so, I read a startling statistic the other day which was that over 85% of new cars are on these personal lease plans, so they never actually own the car and pay upwards of £350 a month for the privilage.

This finance is provided by shadow banks, those big companies who benefit twice, once from the value of the good and then from the finance payments, many think that this is the next economic bubble to burst - the growth in the shadow banking sector which is unregulated and engaged in as risky if not riskier lending practices than the banks did.

So I fear that whilst people are in thrall to consumerism and use endless credit to support their habit they will not be fighting globalisation anytime soon.

[Andy_Faber]

For the "ordinary folk" to make a difference they would have to eschew the rampant consumerism which they are all to readily eager to embrace, often borrowing money to do so, I read a startling statistic the other day which was that over 85% of new cars are on these personal lease plans, so they never actually own the car and pay upwards of £350 a month for the privilage.

This finance is provided by shadow banks, those big companies who benefit twice, once from the value of the good and then from the finance payments, many think that this is the next economic bubble to burst - the growth in the shadow banking sector which is unregulated and engaged in as risky if not riskier lending practices than the banks did.

So I fear that whilst people are in thrall to consumerism and use endless credit to support their habit they will not be fighting globalisation anytime soon.

My household has three cars on PCP and I'm struggling to understand the issue from a consumer POV. PCP isn't borrowing, its effect is to AVOID borrowing (on the part of the end-user). I paid a deposit out of savings, I make monthly payments out of earnings, I treat the vehicle like a piece of jewellery, I was conservative about the mileage limit so I won't get a penalty, and I have an exit strategy that won't leave me out of pocket

I will agree that 'something has to give' but I'm not sure what, its just a feeling. I thought it would be the bad press about diesels, but my man on the inside says that the increase in tax etc is just being factored in by folk as part of the cost of ownership, which has cushioned the impact somewhat.

[roger_ramjet]

Tend to agree about shadow banks argument but as Andy says some people can leverage the non ownership of assets favourably, and some just gamble their financial probity.

The level of consumer debt in the economy is obscene culminating with the 1000%+ interest rates at Wonga etc. Most of this overpriced debt is spent on multinational made goods BUT if they werent selling it, someone else would. The issue is the insane desire to spend spend spend by people who cannot afford it - not the sellers of the goods: but I will accept there is a chicken and egg aspect to the dynamic between supply and demand.

[swaledale]

My household has three cars on PCP and I'm struggling to understand the issue from a consumer POV. PCP isn't borrowing, its effect is to AVOID borrowing (on the part of the end-user). I paid a deposit out of savings, I make monthly payments out of earnings, I treat the vehicle like a piece of jewellery, I was conservative about the mileage limit so I won't get a penalty, and I have an exit strategy that won't leave me out of pocket

I will agree that 'something has to give' but I'm not sure what, its just a feeling. I thought it would be the bad press about diesels, but my man on the inside says that the increase in tax etc is just being factored in by folk as part of the cost of ownership, which has cushioned the impact somewhat.

The issue is that for many the PCP is just one of many similar debts they carry to finance their life style and a blow to the economy which results in the wages not coming in to service those outgoings would set off a chain reaction as its financially unsustainable.

If your a low mileage person then frankly the economics of a car on a PCp dont make snese, still if one chooses to blow x thousands per year on something one will never own then thats a personal choice - the fact is one years PCP payments will buy a reliable good model car second hand which at say 10,000 miles per annum would last 4 or more years with ease and beyond normal running costs no further costs and a few thousand pounds of ones earnings in the bank.

I do over 25,000 miles per year have run a second hand car which has lasted between 3 and 4 years each time, capital cost per year less than the monthly PCP payment for an equivalent model. But then I'm not a slave to todays consumerist society and will be laughing all the way to the bank when the brexit solids hit the fan.

[Andy_Faber]

The issue is that for many the PCP is just one of many similar debts they carry to finance their life style and a blow to the economy which results in the wages not coming in to service those outgoings would set off a chain reaction as its financially unsustainable.

If your a low mileage person then frankly the economics of a car on a PCp dont make snese, still if one chooses to blow x thousands per year on something one will never own then thats a personal choice - the fact is one years PCP payments will buy a reliable good model car second hand which at say 10,000 miles per annum would last 4 or more years with ease and beyond normal running costs no further costs and a few thousand pounds of ones earnings in the bank.

I do over 25,000 miles per year have run a second hand car which has lasted between 3 and 4 years each time, capital cost per year less than the monthly PCP payment for an equivalent model. But then I'm not a slave to todays consumerist society and will be laughing all the way to the bank when the brexit solids hit the fan.

I respect your approach to motoring and your thrift but PCP is not a debt in the hands of the end user. Damned right I use it (PCP) as a device to service my 'lifestyle' but I'm really struggling to make the other connections you make.

[Ram59]

The issue is that for many the PCP is just one of many similar debts they carry to finance their life style and a blow to the economy which results in the wages not coming in to service those outgoings would set off a chain reaction as its financially unsustainable.

If your a low mileage person then frankly the economics of a car on a PCp dont make snese, still if one chooses to blow x thousands per year on something one will never own then thats a personal choice - the fact is one years PCP payments will buy a reliable good model car second hand which at say 10,000 miles per annum would last 4 or more years with ease and beyond normal running costs no further costs and a few thousand pounds of ones earnings in the bank.

I do over 25,000 miles per year have run a second hand car which has lasted between 3 and 4 years each time, capital cost per year less than the monthly PCP payment for an equivalent model. But then I'm not a slave to todays consumerist society and will be laughing all the way to the bank when the brexit solids hit the fan.

I admire your financial acumen, but surely people should be able to have the choice of how they waste their money, wether it be PCP on a car lasting all year or a skiing holiday lasting one week or a good night out once a week or killing yourself with fags or booze. People enjoy wasting money on many things, what's yours or are you perfect?