OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[ramAnag]

This wasn’t why I asked, but it seems you struggle to quantify Brexit impact to me to the same extent that I struggle to quantify minority overexposure in the media to you.

Yes, on balance my friendship group see more positives than negatives in Brexit. One, a specialist exporter, has seen a step change in the ease of doing business with China and Turkey, and two others working in NHS have seen a reduction in the pressure of dealing with Eastern Europeans who apparently a) aren’t very patient and b) insist on bringing the whole family in. In general I’m guessing the economic downside of Brexit will be hidden to some extent, with or without Covid

Edit thanks for the good wishes, yes 60 and a number of ‘restarts’ to my life, and I don’t think that was falling, just finding more out about one another

Tbf you specifically asked for examples that I have, thus far, ‘noticed’...i.e. have had a direct impact upon me.
I could easily come up with 20-30 other examples that haven’t, to date, been especially personally noticeable...eg the NI situation...I know it exists but remain personally untouched by it.

Not sure Brexit and ‘minority exposure’ are actually comparable. The former is likely to have a huge impact on most of us. The latter is a largely nebulous concept which, for reasons I struggle to understand, represents one of your obsessions.

[Geoff Parkstone]

Not point scoring here, but how long a game, GP? The foreseeable future or the ‘not in our lifetime’ future?
Many on here will have experienced the more personal process of short term pain for long term gain...eg a mortgage, and I understand the concept of ‘not expecting immediate payback’...but the question of whether we’re talking about the ‘Boris’ bus’ payback as opposed to sometime around when current ten and eleven year olds are eligible for retirement is a valid...and I believe...unprecedented one.
As things are at the moment, and I do hope to debate constructively rather than just engage in animosity, I struggle to see anything other than disadvantage.

How long is a fair question. I'd say let it roll 5 years bedding in - it seemed to take a similar time to get adjusted to all the *******s of joining, so the infinitely more complex task of adjusting to leaving should maybe take the same time given the enhanced technology.

So after 5 years, lets reassess what we have lost, what we have recovered or adjusted to and indeed what economic positives may have emerged. Compare this to the positives of avoiding becoming part of the Borg.

There are those who talk of it taking a generation to see the positives - and indeed it might (although we might not see them personally) but I'm prepared to give it 5 years before drawing conclusions. i really dont give a **** about pre referendum hype and Boris bus etc - it people are stupid enough to fall for that stunt, then let them. Equally if people are prepared to believe the brexit doom mongers, same thing. I will judge based on what actually happens. not what the partisan opinion makers put out there.

As for Andy's "have you seen any differences" - my answer is that in a commercial environment I've seen new procedures needing to be followed, extra paperwork etc but nothing that cannot be assimilated in a shortish time frame. Personally my answer would be that Ive seen no difference at all - has Brexit actually happened? Life goes on as before (although Covid may be clouding the issue - were bog roll shortages due to Covid or Brexit?)

But my opinion is informed by personal experience, not the media reports which may be fallacious, scaremongering or just partisan. There might be **** happening out there, but it hasnt impacted my bubble yet. I havent seen rA's produce shortages at all, my bins are maybe emptied a day late, but nothing of substance. Oh, maybe I've noticed more English spoken in coffee shops!

As for foreign travel, I've not done any. For sure there are apocryphal tales of longer queues. So get there a bit earlier - like we used to do 15 years ago before tech shortened waiting times? Its not material in most people's lives, but I suspect it could piss off business travellers who do 20+ trips a year. But they should seriously think about the need to travel and the environmental cost of doing so much travel anyway, now Zoom etc has been shown to be an effective substitute.

So, in summary, just learn to roll with the changes, alter your lifestyle a little to accomodate the different procedures. Its not the end of the world. At "big picture" level, dont sweat it, you cannot alter it. Que sera, sera..... in 5 years we may see rampant inflation, mass unemployment and so on, and some of it may be due to Brexit - but Ive not seen it yet. Nascent inflation is down to the government trying to inflate their way our of Covid debt by and large, not all due to Brexit

[Trickytreesreds]

Folks forget to look at the EU for a good enough reason to escape, right now.
1. Germans not happy at the amount they have to pump in to prop up the poorer countries. This is exactly the internal bleeding of funds, the UK was fed up with, as it all Part of the FEDERAL PUSH FOR A EUSSR.
EU Parliament vice-president Katarina Barley, also a German MEP and member of the Social Democratic Party, said: “The European Commission should act immediately and block EU funds, especially in Hungary, but also in Poland.

2. See above. The EU telling you how to conduct the internal workings of your country. Be it law/Migrants/ trade/education.


3. The euro. The longer you stay in that pile, the more pressure to adopt it. Don't give me the "we don't have to join" crap. We will eventually if their dream is to be fulfilled. (As the Jocks will find out, if the paint your face blue fanatics win)
Valdes Dombrovskis, EU Commissioner for the Euro and Social Dialogue, told France 24 that all member states of the European Union have to join the Eurozone eventually.

He said: “That’s the ultimate goal. If you look at the Treaty, all member states excluding Denmark are actually obliged to join the Euro.

“There is no strict deadline associate do this, so members still can choose their pace, but ultimately all member states should be joining the Eurozone.”

The price is too high. In effect, you would surrendering control to the EU commission, who the populations cannot eject.
A lot of the EU countries are now realising this and the discontent is spreading.

I see all the counter arguments, as though the EU is forever. Obviously no one wants to even dare what will happen if crumbles.
The Mediterranean countries have really blossomed out of it haven't they?

To risky, thank you.
I'll take the pain and play the long game.

[ramAnag]

How long is a fair question. I'd say let it roll 5 years bedding in - it seemed to take a similar time to get adjusted to all the *******s of joining, so the infinitely more complex task of adjusting to leaving should maybe take the same time given the enhanced technology.

So after 5 years, lets reassess what we have lost, what we have recovered or adjusted to and indeed what economic positives may have emerged. Compare this to the positives of avoiding becoming part of the Borg.

There are those who talk of it taking a generation to see the positives - and indeed it might (although we might not see them personally) but I'm prepared to give it 5 years before drawing conclusions. i really dont give a **** about pre referendum hype and Boris bus etc - it people are stupid enough to fall for that stunt, then let them. Equally if people are prepared to believe the brexit doom mongers, same thing. I will judge based on what actually happens. not what the partisan opinion makers put out there.

As for Andy's "have you seen any differences" - my answer is that in a commercial environment I've seen new procedures needing to be followed, extra paperwork etc but nothing that cannot be assimilated in a shortish time frame. Personally my answer would be that Ive seen no difference at all - has Brexit actually happened? Life goes on as before (although Covid may be clouding the issue - were bog roll shortages due to Covid or Brexit?)

But my opinion is informed by personal experience, not the media reports which may be fallacious, scaremongering or just partisan. There might be **** happening out there, but it hasnt impacted my bubble yet. I havent seen rA's produce shortages at all, my bins are maybe emptied a day late, but nothing of substance. Oh, maybe I've noticed more English spoken in coffee shops!

As for foreign travel, I've not done any. For sure there are apocryphal tales of longer queues. So get there a bit earlier - like we used to do 15 years ago before tech shortened waiting times? Its not material in most people's lives, but I suspect it could piss off business travellers who do 20+ trips a year. But they should seriously think about the need to travel and the environmental cost of doing so much travel anyway, now Zoom etc has been shown to be an effective substitute.

So, in summary, just learn to roll with the changes, alter your lifestyle a little to accomodate the different procedures. Its not the end of the world. At "big picture" level, dont sweat it, you cannot alter it. Que sera, sera..... in 5 years we may see rampant inflation, mass unemployment and so on, and some of it may be due to Brexit - but Ive not seen it yet. Nascent inflation is down to the government trying to inflate their way our of Covid debt by and large, not all due to Brexit

Very ’Ramjetian’...and all the better for that.

Five years? Coincidentally about the same as the last change of ownership at DCFC then...or the approximate length of a Government’s term of office. Can we really afford that? You possibly...me perhaps? But the less fortunate who invariably pay the price?

‘If people are stupid enough to fall for that (Boris’ bus) stunt’. Isn’t that the point? I wasn’t...you weren’t. Same as we weren’t taken in by Farage’s refugee ‘advert’. Others sadly were...so are you not conceding that Brexit was, after all, a victory for liars over more gullible people?

Not equipped to comment on your ‘commercial environment’ observations and the bin thing is a bit of a bugbear. Up here we have four bins. One (food waste) emptied weekly and the other three emptied every other week. Well they were. Now they’re not bothering with one at all until September and we’ve been instructed to mix food waste in with one of the others. The reason given is a shortage of HGV drivers - originally blamed on Covid but more recently (whisper it to Andy) as a result of Brexit. Always assumed the need for four bins was environmentally based so there, presumably, is another ‘cost’.

I haven’t travelled abroad since about the same time as you. Take your point, although I’m not sure Zoom is an ‘effective substitute’, and more complex travel within Europe does seem another unavoidable and disadvantageous outcome.

‘Nascent inflation’...I know what it means but again don’t feel equipped to debate it, and I know Brexit isn’t ‘the end of the world’ but I’m struggling to think of any other change - major or more minor - that you’d allow five years before you judged it. Perhaps the whole point is that actually...with the support of enough reasonable (cross Party) people...you can alter it.

[Andy_Faber]

Not sure Brexit and ‘minority exposure’ are actually comparable

Not sure if you’re aware how often you pull the ‘not sure they’re comparable’ card, but it’s a lot, I think I’m going to give it a try when I can’t or can’t be bothered to offer a credible response

[Geoff Parkstone]

Tackling those in reverse order

I’m struggling to think of any other change - major or more minor - that you’d allow five years before you judged it. One that springs to mind was in 1972 when we joined the EU in the first place. Major incidents such as these take time to settle.

I’m not sure Zoom is an ‘effective substitute’ Its an imperfect solution, but if we are serious about tackling climate change, its one we will need to adopt - amongst a raft of other serious measures to curtail the pissing of fossil fuels into the air

Up here we have four bins. One (food waste) emptied weekly and the other three emptied every other week down here we have 5, inc garden waste. No difference in efficiency of collection seen yet.

given is a shortage of HGV drivers - originally blamed on Covid but more recently (whisper it to Andy) as a result of Brexit. I think what you mean to say here is "more recently (whisper it to Andy) blamed on Brexit", since you cannot know that your council is telling the truth or merely finding a convenient excuse for their own inadequacy.

Same as we weren’t taken in by Farage’s refugee ‘advert’. same as I wasn't by remainer scaremongers about death, destruction, famine. Both sides of the debate were guilty of fabrication and b/s: dont just pick on the failings of the side you didnt like . The whole campaign from both sides was disgraceful.

Can we really afford that? whether we can or whether we cant, that's what we need to deal with and give it time. We cannot change it, so let it play out. You dont change your entire forward line after 7 minutes just because you are worried you might lose the game.

[ramAnag]

Not sure if you’re aware how often you pull the ‘not sure they’re comparable’ card, but it’s a lot, I think I’m going to give it a try when I can’t or can’t be bothered to offer a credible response

Fair enough...it was my polite way of saying, ‘I’m ‘kin sure they’re not’, but have it your way. What it meant was...how can you compare the most seismic event in British politics for half a century with your slightly odd obsession. Better?

[Andy_Faber]

given is a shortage of HGV drivers - originally blamed on Covid but more recently (whisper it to Andy) as a result of Brexit. I think what you mean to say here is "more recently (whisper it to Andy) blamed on Brexit", since you cannot know that your council is telling the truth or merely finding a convenient excuse for their own inadequacy.

In fact the shortage was blamed, by the Council, without any weighting, on four things - Brexit, Covid illness, Covid self isolation, delays in HGV testing and an intimated fifth, low pay, and sixth, the Council's unpreparedness to pull the contractual trigger and dump Serco, because they hadn't risk assessed their plan B, and a seventh I can only claim by anecdote, that Serco aren't managing their problems as well as at least one of their competitors, Biffa

[ramAnag]

In fact the shortage was blamed, by the Council, without any weighting, on four things - Brexit, Covid illness, Covid self isolation, delays in HGV testing and an intimated fifth, low pay, and sixth, the Council's unpreparedness to pull the contractual trigger and dump Serco, because they hadn't risk assessed their plan B, and a seventh I can only claim by anecdote, that Serco aren't managing their problems as well as at least one of their competitors, Biffa

Partly correct. I agree they did initially and quite reasonably blame Covid. There has been an intimation about low wages and Serco do appear to have a number of serious shortcomings.
You know as well as I do however that, at 13.19 on the 21st July, they referred to the situation being ‘compounded’ by the national shortage of HGV drivers which they attributed to Brexit.

[Andy_Faber]

Partly correct. I agree they did initially and quite reasonably blame Covid. There has been an intimation about low wages and Serco do appear to have a number of serious shortcomings.
You know as well as I do however that, at 13.19 on the 21st July, they referred to the situation being ‘compounded’ by the national shortage of HGV drivers which they attributed to Brexit.

On the basis that 'compounding' in your use of the word means 'adding incrementally to' yes you are correct and not even partially. But its still only one of four, five, six or seven reasons so any intimation that Brexit is the prime driver of the problem is incorrect and it may, just may, be that the council (whatever its allegiance, self-preservation has many colours) is looking to find the easy fall guy to divert from its own incompetence. I think GP makes that same point

[ramAnag]

On the basis that 'compounding' in your use of the word means 'adding incrementally to' yes you are correct and not even partially. But its still only one of four, five, six or seven reasons so any intimation that Brexit is the prime driver of the problem is incorrect and it may, just may, be that the council (whatever its allegiance, self-preservation has many colours) is looking to find the easy fall guy to divert from its own incompetence. I think GP makes that same point

Okay...let’s add some further context to resolve this.
The missive from Derbyshire Dales was written almost three weeks ago to justify the use of central government provided Coronavirus emergency funding.

It quoted a ‘localgov.uk’ report which suggested that the ‘emergency situation’ had been created by ‘the numbers of staff told to self isolate by the COVID-19 app’.

The concluding sentence reads, ‘This has been compounded by a national shortage of 100,000 HGV drivers AS A RESULT OF BREXIT’.

I recognise that we’re both as stubborn as each other, but to avoid any confusion, I am quoting from the excitingly titled ‘Waste and recycling update’ issued by Tory controlled and Brexit supporting Derbyshire Dales District Council at 13:19:47 on 21st July ‘21.

I don’t dispute or claim to know whether, as you suggest, this may be an example of the council seeking to shift blame, but it seems quite unequivocal in where it lays the blame for the shortage of HGV drivers to me.

[MadAmster]

I’m struggling to think of any other change - major or more minor - that you’d allow five years before you judged it. One that springs to mind was in 1972 when we joined the EU in the first place. Major incidents such as these take time to settle.

.

..... and that only went to a referendum because it was discovered and then very enthusuastically pushed that Ted and his cabinet had broken the Law in taking us into the Common Market. I'm confused by the "5 years" you mention. Heath took us in, on 1/1/73 and the referendum was on 5/6/75. Just under 2 and a half years later.

Turnout in the referendum was just over 64% and just over 67% voted to remain. 42.88% of those eligible to vote voted to remain.

[Geoff Parkstone]

MA: I wasnt actually referencing the post joining referendum, just saying that it took a long time to get used to and accomodate the changes wrought by joining the EU back then - eg about 5 years, with huge changes to agricultural policy and the introduction of VAT to name but two

rA: I don’t dispute or claim to know whether, as you suggest, this may be an example of the council seeking to shift blame, but it seems quite unequivocal in where it lays the blame for the shortage of HGV drivers to me. This is exactly the point - that is where the Council apportion blame. Unequivocally. But that doesn't make it true. Do you believe everything that is told to you - eg by Mr Johnson, or other Tory politicians such as your council? I don't remember this being a character trait of your's previously - although believing these politicians does fit the agenda this time

[ramAnag]

MA: I wasnt actually referencing the post joining referendum, just saying that it took a long time to get used to and accomodate the changes wrought by joining the EU back then - eg about 5 years, with huge changes to agricultural policy and the introduction of VAT to name but two

rA: I don’t dispute or claim to know whether, as you suggest, this may be an example of the council seeking to shift blame, but it seems quite unequivocal in where it lays the blame for the shortage of HGV drivers to me. This is exactly the point - that is where the Council apportion blame. Unequivocally. But that doesn't make it true. Do you believe everything that is told to you - eg by Mr Johnson, or other Tory politicians such as your council? I don't remember this being a character trait of your's previously - although believing these politicians does fit the agenda this time

Two disappointing answers there GP in response to two factual responses. I’ll leave MA to deal with his point.

As regards mine. Clearly, from reading what you’ve highlighted in red, I don’t claim to know who is telling the truth.
You’re right, I believe Johnson is an inveterate liar, but the point isn’t what or who I believe.
The point is that, in the context of being asked about personal experiences of the impact of Brexit, I have cited a Tory council attributing blame for the serious shortage of HGV drivers directly to Brexit.
Had I quoted a left wing MP/council or dedicated ’Remainer’ you’d have a point and I wouldn’t expect you to take much notice...but I haven’t.
So surely when a loyal to the government true blue Tory council makes such a point about Brexit even you should be prepared to be rather less dismissive.

[MadAmster]

MA: I wasnt actually referencing the post joining referendum, just saying that it took a long time to get used to and accomodate the changes wrought by joining the EU back then - eg about 5 years, with huge changes to agricultural policy and the introduction of VAT to name but two

It could be me but that probably isn't what most people on here understood from your wording. The major change was membership and it was 2.5 years when it was judged. VAT, CAP and CFP etc were small (ish?) parts of the very many changes brought about ny the major change i.e. membership.

I'll explain. You wrote [QUOTE] One that springs to mind was in 1972 when we joined the EU in the first place. Major incidents such as these take time to settle. [UNQUOTE]

No mention of "knock on effects" like VAT etc. Just "We joined the EU". Hardly surprising that I understood it the way I did.