OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Andy_Faber]

Just to cherry pick some information, the FTSE 250 is today at 17,816.87, compared to today 2015 when it was 16,917.34 (source google finance), so during what is undoubtedly an uncertain period (you won't find many Brexiters that didn't expect short term uncertainty), the economy is looking pretty stable, strong, and growing.

That of course doesn't prove anything, but it's easy to panic in the shorty term, and the gloom merchants (not aimed at anyone in this thread) will grasp hold of anything that gives them a "told you so, its all your fault, we're doomed" sense of achievement.

I actually think it could be aimed at some on this thread....

Just another statistic, the £ fell by roughly the same in the period from January to ealy June as it has between late June and now, I don't think most people even noticed the former....

[ramAnag]

I think one thing that Brexit and the Trump phenomenon has done has given a voice back to 'the people' who are sick of being told what to do by an elite.

Edit: Although I defo DON'T want Trump's finger on the nuclear button. Way too easily would up, there are just too many countries out there that might piss him off.....

Edit 2 Well put there RR

Apart from repeatedly chastising me about my mathematical (in)ability in a way all too remeniscent of my increasingly balding and despairing Maths teacher back in 1970, I agree...RR puts the case well, last daft sentence apart, but ultimately agrees...we're all going to be worse off...thanks to Brexit.

Not sure who you think 'the people' are that Trump 'represents' though Andy. Certainly not the majority of female, Black, Hispanic, Muslim or Asian Americans. Possibly about 40% of White American males which personally - being a white male who loves spending time in the U.S. - I find thoroughly depressing.

Given Farage's recent behaviour there's presumably a significant overlap between the mindset which supports Brexit and the one which identifies with Trump. Probably the same mindset which supports capital punishment and Thatcher's, now thankfully entirely discredited, eighties stance against homo***uality. She was wrong then and, imo, the Brexiteers are making an equally grave mistake now, but at potentially far greater cost.

[roger_ramjet]

Apart from repeatedly chastising me about my mathematical (in)ability in a way all too remeniscent of my increasingly balding and despairing Maths teacher back in 1970, I agree...RR puts the case well, last daft sentence apart, but ultimately agrees...we're all going to be worse off...thanks to Brexit.

To clarify, Mangara - I did not say we would be worse off, I said that we would have to pay more for imported goods and CPI inflation would go up.

That is not the same as being worse off - as a nation a weak currency is good for business and our exports, so we could benefit from it. Our unit labour cost is cheaper than other countries in their base currency so this could attract capital and manufacturing industry back to our shores. Our economy could be more vibrant, even though the people are having to cut their cloth a little to deal with increased costs.

The issuing is in managing this disconnect: can the government ensure that the increased wealth creation is shared out so that those facing the worst of the increased costs get some payback. Traditionally this taks has proved beyond most governments and the economic wealth of the nation stays in too few hands.

What is therefore predictible is that the nation will be better off but the needy will be worse off. There may be more jobs available, but past experience has shown a marked reluctance amongst the most needy to do a days work as the "entitlement culture" seems well established (OK I know Ive lost your support here Mangara). The challenge therefore is for more people to share in the wealth pool due to their good endeavours. Probably an impossible mission, but we can at least theorise.

[Andy_Faber]

What is therefore predictible is that the nation will be better off but the needy will be worse off. There may be more jobs available, but past experience has shown a marked reluctance amongst the most needy to do a days work as the "entitlement culture" seems well established (OK I know Ive lost your support here Mangara). The challenge therefore is for more people to share in the wealth pool due to their good endeavours. Probably an impossible mission, but we can at least theorise.

.....To stand within the pleasure dome
Decreed by Kubla Khan
.... Oh, I will dine on honey dew
And drink the milk of paradise....

Getting a bit utopian there RR

Hoever I think that's where we'll end up too. The 'rich' will stay rich, and probably more so because that's how it goes, a vast swathe of folk will feel better off because they can buy curved bananas and see a few crims off home a bit quicker but will actually have less to spend, and those who have the choice of a bit of graft and the chance of progression versus a lifetime watching daytime TV will choose the latter, grab what they can (at my expense) and whinge about what they can't. And although in the last 100 pages of meanderings I've probably come over as hostile to minoritie/newbies, if I could swap out each British loafer for an Eastern European grafter I think I probably would.

[ramAnag]

To clarify, Mangara - I did not say we would be worse off, I said that we would have to pay more for imported goods and CPI inflation would go up.

That is not the same as being worse off - as a nation a weak currency is good for business and our exports, so we could benefit from it. Our unit labour cost is cheaper than other countries in their base currency so this could attract capital and manufacturing industry back to our shores. Our economy could be more vibrant, even though the people are having to cut their cloth a little to deal with increased costs.

The issuing is in managing this disconnect: can the government ensure that the increased wealth creation is shared out so that those facing the worst of the increased costs get some payback. Traditionally this taks has proved beyond most governments and the economic wealth of the nation stays in too few hands.

What is therefore predictible is that the nation will be better off but the needy will be worse off. There may be more jobs available, but past experience has shown a marked reluctance amongst the most needy to do a days work as the "entitlement culture" seems well established (OK I know Ive lost your support here Mangara). The challenge therefore is for more people to share in the wealth pool due to their good endeavours. Probably an impossible mission, but we can at least theorise.

Actually you didn't lose my support there Roger...I recognise the need for a climate of social responsibility in terms of protecting the weakest amongst society. I most certainly do not recognise the need for an 'entitlement culture' in terms of a 'scivers charter' and I would go further to argue that the 'entitlement culture' is just as pertinent to the wealthy and 'inheritance blessed' as it is to those more regularly percieved as being amongst the poor and needy.

Agree totally and absolutely with your 'challenge' but imo some of the greedy and grasping at the top of society are just as likely to prevent it being met as the 'work shy' at the bottom.

Either way, if we have an imminent situation where we have to pay 5% more (your, imo generous, estimation) for our imported goods and, in your own words, where 'the needy will be worse off', I find it difficult to reconcile Brexit with anything other than a general downturn in living standards.

[roger_ramjet]

......and yet bizarrely, the demographics of the vote show that those who will most likely suffer the greatest from this downturn in living standards, and inequitable distribution of any increased national wealth, were the most likely to have voted for OUT. The pensioners, the idle underclass, the chav etc. Hand them a gun, tell them were their foot is. Shoot. This is the downside of voting along the lines of your own "entitlement culture" and voting to remove the (in their minds) undesirable aliens, as opposed to thinking of the consequences.

And yes I agree about the "entitlement culture" not just focussing on the underclass - its as bad at the top end of bankers, inheritors etc. I wrote a long edit making this very point in my original post which was then eaten by the system!.

[roger_ramjet]

.....To stand within the pleasure dome
Decreed by Kubla Khan
.... Oh, I will dine on honey dew
And drink the milk of paradise....

So trivia Question:

What has this quote got to Derby County?









A: Rush

I dont think that is the original STC wording is it?

A damsel with a dulcimer
In a vision once I saw:
It was an Abyssinian maid
And on her dulcimer she played,
Singing of Mount Abora.

[ramAnag]

......and yet bizarrely, the demographics of the vote show that those who will most likely suffer the greatest from this downturn in living standards, and inequitable distribution of any increased national wealth, were the most likely to have voted for OUT. The pensioners, the idle underclass, the chav etc. Hand them a gun, tell them were their foot is. Shoot. This is the downside of voting along the lines of your own "entitlement culture" and voting to remove the (in their minds) undesirable aliens, as opposed to thinking of the consequences.

And yes I agree about the "entitlement culture" not just focussing on the underclass - its as bad at the top end of bankers, inheritors etc. I wrote a long edit making this very point in my original post which was then eaten by the system!.

So we agree then...I think that is just about what Swale and I have been saying since last June.
There are times, Mr Sheep-dribble, when I suspect you could manage an argument in an otherwise empty room.
P.S. See the £ has fallen to a six year low against the € this afternoon. Think it was at a five year high earlier this year...just coincidence I guess.

[macstheman]

Forget the pound what about these frigging plastic fivers, uurrgghh!!

[southernram22]

i dont care if they are plastic or not as long as i get more in my wages.

[Andy_Faber]

So trivia Question:

What has this quote got to Derby County?

A: Rush

case o beer for that Mr Ramjet, both for 70's Canadian prog awareness and link to DCFC

[swaledale]

Mm someone hasn't noticed we have a ****ing big trade deficit and that we hardly manufacture anything these days! Talk to people who know and you will find that everything the "average person" buys will be hit - as in cars, electronics, food. Yes the weaker pound will rebalance the economy, which overall will be a good thing. however I'm not so sure that the people at the sharp end - those so in favour of Brexit will be amused when their standard of living drops and they lose their jobs or can't afford their mortgage as interest rates rise!

As always the elite which so many say the brexit vote was supposedly a slap in the face, will not suffer the consequences!

Those who think the EU will be swayed by economic reality on trade are in for a shock, our friends in the EU do not think like that and will pay a small economic price to protect the EU as will be seen. Meanwhile Nissan are already considering whether or not they will invest in the Sunderland plant, Toyota will do the same eventually at Burnaston, if they don't have a traiff free acces to the EU, then they will relocate to the EU, the list goes on but hey ho it will be worth it to be a "sovereign" country again!!

[ramAnag]

Not saying I agree with this Swale...but can you see a scenario where those who support Brexit for only one reason - immigration - are appeased by the EU accepting some sort of deal/rethink for the UK (or perhaps the whole of Europe) in that area in return for us not quitting? I feel something is going on and a 'climb down' of some description is coming. May knows that a 'hard' Brexit will be catastrophic economically and that many of what was only 37% in the first place seem to be getting 'cold feet'.

[swaledale]

Not saying I agree with this Swale...but can you see a scenario where those who support Brexit for only one reason - immigration - are appeased by the EU accepting some sort of deal/rethink for the UK (or perhaps the whole of Europe) in that area in return for us not quitting? I feel something is going on and a 'climb down' of some description is coming. May knows that a 'hard' Brexit will be catastrophic economically and that many of what was only 37% in the first place seem to be getting 'cold feet'.

No I can't, the mood in the Eu is that if the Uk wants out then its out full stop, plus polictically it would be fatal for the Eu principles to allow a country to exit yet retain the benefits of membership to that extent and other countries would balk at that. The difficulty is going to be that any deal has to be ratified by the 27 countries and thats not going to happen unless its a hard Brexit!

As Boris said, the benefits of access to the single market are worth a the relatively small price paid!! But then he changed his mind when he thought being a Leave supporter would benefit his personal ambition.


I can see the mood of the UK changing dramatically when the full economic effects of Brexit are being felt in higher prices on those so passionately in favour of Brexit - but hey the stock markets high so everything is rosy obvs!! The fact that hardly anyone who voted for leave will benfit from this, is it seems a pint missed by those crowing about it!

Still personally I'm making hay as firms make their plans for Brexit, which seems to involve establishing subsidiaries or their headquarters in the EU, with a consequence loss of jobs, tax revenue and income to the UK - the true cost will take 5 - 10 years to be realised, by which time it will be too late to reverse.

[ramAnag]

Agree largely with your take on things, but there must surely be a tipping point where even this most shambolic 'Remain' campaign manages to get the message through to the most 'head in the sand' Brexiteers that they have voted for long term economic catastrophe. At that point maybe a 'compromise' will be found, that May in particular finds acceptable, where EU restrictions on immigration control are softened and we remain in the EU. Maybe a certain amount of 'wishful thinking' on my part but sadly whatever happens it will, as ever, be the poor that suffer most.