OT. The futures Bright, the Futures Brexit!!!

[Trickytreesreds]

Andy, most of that is very reasonable. But it isn't going to happen, purely because of
1.the vengeful politics of Junkers cronies, their master plan has been torpedoed, they aren't happy
2. Countries like Poland/Hungary/Romania are never going to want to stop allowing their citizens, to come at will
3. The small countries have little to lose trade wise with us, so will be awkward, knowing their purse has been clipped.

Reality- hard Brexit it is then

[roger_ramjet]

I dont want to reignite the in or out vote again, so will not rise to that bait Mangara!

As to the "planks of exit" they do not seem that dramatic and are the usual grand sweeping words of framework directives. As such they seem to represent a firm but soft exit although for the life of me I dont get why "4" the commitment to free movement for the Irish is still in there - unless this is a practical necessity for Ulster. Just because Ireland enjoyed a privileged status before 1973, why does it have to persist now? They are an independent nation for Christ's sake - and have been for almost 100 years. We have spent much of that time at war with them.

"2" is no different to what happens now - only difference is that EU tells us what to pass as laws in London, Edinburgh etc etc

"3" is interesting - not really a Brexit issue more a kick in the head aimed at the SNP

"5" will have many rejoicing in the working class areas across the UK. They will be singing "we'll get our jobs back from those johnny foreigners" in the local pubs well into the night, conveniently forgetting that they dont have the skills to do thos jobs nor the inclination to do them for an affordable wage to the employer. But hey, Tricky will be happy!

"6" will antagonise those that loved "5" and vica versa

"7" wont happen unless Corbyn gets in - so maybe 13 is a bad idea

"8" "9" and "10" are the economic issues where the devil is in the detail and it neither includes nor denies staying in the EEA via EFTA or otherwise. This to me will be the critical issue as it will be the hybrid solution: where we would try to get some of the good aspects of EU without some of the bad bits.

"11" is what NATO is for

"1" and "12" are meaningless philosophical notions

"13" (Andy's one) would be the best as we would doubtless then move to expel the Scotch and Welsh too thus leaving us allied with the European powerhouses such as Norway, Iceland and Leichtenstein IF they let us into EFTA. If not its England, Ulster and the former Yugoslavia against the world!

it would be fun though to see the Scotch separated because they wanted to stay in EU, but then being rejected by the EU as not "fit and proper" as being too weak a nation in their own right (as is my current understanding of what would happen)

[Trickytreesreds]

"5" will have many rejoicing in the working class areas across the UK. They will be singing "we'll get our jobs back from those johnny foreigners" in the local pubs well into the night, conveniently forgetting that they dont have the skills to do thos jobs nor the inclination to do them for an affordable wage to the employer. But hey, Tricky will be happy!


So Roger, you misconstrue me.

I have never been against immigration. What I object to is unchecked immigration. If someone is needed( I'm aiming this at the pathetic whinge of the NHS will collapse), then by all means, VISA time. It works in other countries, why not here. My mantra has always been, that the policy currently running is creating an "underclass" of ***** in a wilderness. Train them. Teach them.
Don't just fetch in an east European, to do a job for the same wage as a 17 year old.Long term, it's a recipe for disaster when us older lot retire. Look at Spain/Portugal/Italy/Greece -- 50% unemployment for under 25's. That's the reality of the EU and it's policies. All it does is encourage mass movement.
As for inclination, then it also means, that pressure must be applied. Either you work and learn. Or we the state, will not support you. I have seen it first hand in interviews. "Yearh but, I'll have to pay my own rent etc"

Free movement, lets Brussels off the hook for it's policies. It's like listening to Tebbitt again, "get on your bike"

[ramAnag]

No 'bait' Rog...you weren't one of them anyway, but I am genuinely interested in knowing whether those who voted 'Leave' - having thought it all through or as a knee jerk - are now getting what they wanted or expected. We seem to be beginning to reap what we sowed as far as I can tell and it doesn't look too clever.

[AdiSalisbury]

I am genuinely interested in knowing whether those who voted 'Leave' - having thought it all through or as a knee jerk - are now getting what they wanted or expected.

Pretty much expected, nothings really happened, a bit of uncertainty in the markets, UK Gov making speeches to send out confidence (eg look at £ today), EU politicians making panicked warnings / threats to UK because they know that it's not good for their own economies to lose us from the EU.

But again, nothing has happened, we are still in the EU and operating as such, so nothing to really judge by.

[Trickytreesreds]

No 'bait' Rog...you weren't one of them anyway, but I am genuinely interested in knowing whether those who voted 'Leave' - having thought it all through or as a knee jerk - are now getting what they wanted or expected. We seem to be beginning to reap what we sowed as far as I can tell and it doesn't look too clever.

Exactly what I expected. No pain no gain.

We had to get out before we never could, as the locks turned.
We will grow from this. The EU will flounder, just watch

[AdiSalisbury]

As for inclination, then it also means, that pressure must be applied. Either you work and learn. Or we the state, will not support you. I have seen it first hand in interviews. "Yearh but, I'll have to pay my own rent etc"

Totally agree with you on this. Did a benefits calc the other day, I'd get over £14k pa in benefits if I didn't work. So did some scenarios for working on low wages, and it tells you along the lines of...

"You'll be better off by £23 a week in work"

So essentially, work your arse off for the privilege of £23, which you'll spend on fuel anyway. No wonder people can't be bothered, and you get "professional" benefits scroungers, there is little incentive, it rewards laziness.

I massively doubt however, that leaving the EU will have any effect on this at all.

[Ram59]

So what are we reaping? If you're talking about the dreaded tariffs, we're looking at less than 2%,which is nothing compared to the devaluation of the pound. Our goods will still be far cheaper than last year. We would also be charging a tariff on imports, which are greater than exports to the eu, this would bring billions into the government coffers.

The biggest casualties if it comes to tariffs, will be French and German businesses.

I suspect May's tactic is to start with, 'we don't need the eu' and leave it up them to approach us about a deal and therefore negotiate from a position of strength.

[Trickytreesreds]

Totally agree with you on this. Did a benefits calc the other day, I'd get over £14k pa in benefits if I didn't work. So did some scenarios for working on low wages, and it tells you along the lines of...

"You'll be better off by £23 a week in work"

So essentially, work your arse off for the privilege of £23, which you'll spend on fuel anyway. No wonder people can't be bothered, and you get "professional" benefits scroungers, there is little incentive, it rewards laziness.

I massively doubt however, that leaving the EU will have any effect on this at all.

It needs addressing Adi. These youngsters are the backbone of the future. I want them starting on the labour ladder and advancing. The companies employing an east european 5 years+ older are doing the nation no favours.
They need sorting out( free movement sorts this) , and the freebie life style of a lost generation needs addressing. Either work/train and advance, or get nothing. One term I am sick to death of is, "immigrants do the jobs we don't want to"

Well we have a glut of youngsters doing nothing, but festering in self pity and acceptance. They may be fodder for Corbyns scruffy army, but it has to stop, NOW

[AdiSalisbury]

I don't disagree Tricky, not at all. Just can't see anything changing, and I don't think the leaving the EU (which I'm for) will have any effect. Simple answer is to remove benefits for those able to work after a certain period, but can't see it.

[Trickytreesreds]

I don't disagree Tricky, not at all. Just can't see anything changing, and I don't think the leaving the EU (which I'm for) will have any effect. Simple answer is to remove benefits for those able to work after a certain period, but can't see it.

Well if we curb the free movement of unskilled migrant labour. Then firms have to look elsewhere for their "cheap" labour. I understand the local ***** are hard work. You have to de-programme them, from their idle ways of parents not giving a **** and soft schooling. But it has to be done.

The old adage of "spare the rod, spoil the child" has never been so apt.
Swale paints his picture of devastation out of the EU, it's our own doing and needs rectifying.
We must not be reliant on EU policies of mass migration and sort out our internal problems whilst we can.

In effect- train/education/work
The gravy train stops and you learn some discipline in your life.

[ramAnag]

So what are we reaping? If you're talking about the dreaded tariffs, we're looking at less than 2%,which is nothing compared to the devaluation of the pound. Our goods will still be far cheaper than last year. We would also be charging a tariff on imports, which are greater than exports to the eu, this would bring billions into the government coffers.

The biggest casualties if it comes to tariffs, will be French and German businesses.

I suspect May's tactic is to start with, 'we don't need the eu' and leave it up them to approach us about a deal and therefore negotiate from a position of strength.

The main thing we're reaping at the moment is the collapse of Sterling which, as I originally said, means an increase in the cost of living via all the imported goods we depend on from food to fuel and the cost of anything associated with holidaying abroad. Inflation also appears to be on the rise and while we may be 'escaping the clutches of the Brussels bureaucrats' - as those opposed to the EU would probably describe it - we seem to be running ever closer to becoming dependent on our relationship with the U.S. and the lunatic Trump. None of this seems good to me.

As a seperate point. I'm not usually given to conspiracy theories but here's a thought. Current negotiations appear to be heading in the direction of such a 'hard' and potentially catastrophic Brexit that Parliament may, not unreasonably, feel unable to sanction Article 50. Should that be the case it will those MPs who oppose Brexit who will incur the wrath of those who voted 'Leave' - 37% of the electorate - which some might see as an opportunity to strengthen the Tory and UKIP vote at the almost inevitable General Election that would follow. As I say, just a thought.

[Andy_Faber]

Totally agree with you on this. Did a benefits calc the other day, I'd get over £14k pa in benefits if I didn't work. So did some scenarios for working on low wages, and it tells you along the lines of...

"You'll be better off by £23 a week in work"

So essentially, work your arse off for the privilege of £23, which you'll spend on fuel anyway. No wonder people can't be bothered, and you get "professional" benefits scroungers, there is little incentive, it rewards laziness.

I massively doubt however, that leaving the EU will have any effect on this at all.

yes it would, if it was zero we'd only get folk here who want to put a shift in, and there'd be no need for EU immigration controls. And for that matter UK citizens who currently loaf would have to get up and graft

NB I write that as a career desk-jockey but unlike most of today's kids I grafted (on a farm) for most of my teenage years

[Trickytreesreds]

The main thing we're reaping at the moment is the collapse of Sterling which, as I originally said, means an increase in the cost of living via all the imported goods we depend on from food to fuel and the cost of anything associated with holidaying abroad. Inflation also appears to be on the rise and while we may be 'escaping the clutches of the Brussels bureaucrats' - as those opposed to the EU would probably describe it - we seem to be running ever closer to becoming dependent on our relationship with the U.S. and the lunatic Trump. None of this seems good to me.

As a seperate point. I'm not usually given to conspiracy theories but here's a thought. Current negotiations appear to be heading in the direction of such a 'hard' and potentially catastrophic Brexit that Parliament may, not unreasonably, feel unable to sanction Article 50. Should that be the case it will those MPs who oppose Brexit who will incur the wrath of those who voted 'Leave' - 37% of the electorate - which some might see as an opportunity to strengthen the Tory and UKIP vote at the almost inevitable General Election that would follow. As I say, just a thought.

In 2008 the pound hit 0.80 against the euro. Was you saying the same thing then?

[Ram59]

It won't make much difference to eu immigration because we need a vast majority of the current eu workers. But it will allow us to reject those few and it is only a few, who we would rather not have in this country. As we all know, there are a good few people in this country who don't want to work.